HAGUE TRIBUNAL PROSECUTOR VISITS SERBIA

UNCLAS BELGRADE 001197 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KAWC SR SUBJECT: HAGUE TRIBUNAL PROSECUTOR VISITS SERBIA REF: Belgrade 958 Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) On his final visit to Serbia before completing his December report to the UN Security Council, International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia Chief Prosecutor Serge Brammertz told us on November 17 that Serbia's political will and operational capability had increased dramatically since his last six-month report. Brammertz was confident that fugitive Ratko Mladic was in Serbia and believed that the government now had the capability and will to arrest him. Serbian officials publicly and privately stated that they hoped for a positive report. Serbia is unlikely to get it, however, as Brammertz is avoiding political statements and wants to keep the pressure on Serbia, lest the will to hunt for Mladic and Goran Hadzic evaporate. End Summary. Brammertz Will Give Facts Not Judgments -------------- ¶2. (SBU) International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) Chief Prosecutor Serge Brammertz visited Serbia November 17 and 18 and met with Serbian officials before finalizing his six-month report on Serbia's cooperation with the ICTY to the UN Security Council. In a conversation with the diplomatic corps in Belgrade on November 17, Brammertz said that his report would not make any judgment on whether Serbia was "fully cooperating" with ICTY but would note improvements (such as the arrests of Radovan Karadzic and Stojan Zupljanin) and remaining areas of concern. He emphasized that "incentives to Serbia" from the international community had been instrumental in increasing Serbia's level of activity. Without such incentives (Note: most likely a reference to the Stabilization and Association Agreement with the EU. End note), Serbia's efforts to find the remaining fugitives could halt, Brammertz said. Government Has Will and Capability -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Brammertz said that under the new democratic government the atmosphere had greatly improved since his last report to the Security Council, and that the government now showed the political will to capture the remaining fugitives. (Note: Brammertz last visited in September and previously in April 2008, reftel.) He said that better cooperation and trust among members of the Action Team had also increased operational effectiveness. Brammertz was convinced Mladic was in Serbia, and the government had the political will and the ability to find him. The Action Team was now busy following leads that the previous government had continuously ignored. Additional issues of concern included outstanding military document requests that Serbia had yet to fulfill and the need for increased support from the government in soliciting witness cooperation. High Hopes for a Positive Report -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Hopes in Serbia are high after the visit. In statements to the press, President Tadic, Prime Minister Cvetkovic, and other officials said that they expected Brammertz's report in December to be positive. ICTY National Cooperation Director Dusan Ignjatovic told us privately he was very optimistic after Brammertz's visit, stating that the relationship had never been better. Ignjatovic said that he did not expect Brammertz to state whether Serbia was fully cooperating. He believed, however, that if Brammertz stated all the facts about Serbia's compliance with the ICTY, Serbia's cooperation would be clear. Ignjatovic expressed frustration that Brammertz would not make political statements to the EU regarding Serbia's cooperation. Comment -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Given Brammertz's reluctance to assess publicly the level of Serbia's cooperation, Serbian officials likely will once again be disappointed in the report. Whatever the level of Serbia's commitment to providing documents and witnesses, the international community expects Mladic's arrest, and the government knows this. Brammertz's impressions that the government is working hard to find Mladic and Hadzic are encouraging, but his request to the international community to keep the pressure on suggests that he believes some carrots -- namely unfreezing the SAA -- should be withheld until the fugitives are brought in. End Comment. MUNTER