LEBANON: FAMILY FEUD: MARCH 14 STRUGGLING ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000994 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/09/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR FR LE SY SUBJECT: LEBANON: FAMILY FEUD: MARCH 14 STRUGGLING ON CABINET DIVISION Classified By: CDA WILLIAM GRANT FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Saad Hariri is back in Lebanon and March 14 is working on resolving its internal disagreements over the division of cabinet seats, but hard feelings are making it difficult. Hariri has been engaged in discussions with other March 14 leaders Samir Geagea, Walid Jumblatt, and PM-designate Fouad Siniora. Geagea's aide told us that the July 8 Geagea-Hariri meeting had gone "just OK" and blamed Hariri for changing what he had agreed to previously about the division of "Christian" cabinet seats. Hariri wants to appoint his senior aide Ghattas Khoury, a Christian, to one of those seats. That means, most likely, no spot for current Minister Nayla Mouawad, another Christian. Khoury railed against the lobbying efforts by Mouawad to block that, including her calls to the Egyptian and other embassies, he said. Khoury also expressed concern that the French are planning some agreement with Syria, perhaps over the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, during Syrian President Bashar al-Asad's July 12-14 trip o France, but he offered no concrete evidence. eparately, President Michel Sleiman's office annunced he will meet Asad in Paris on the margins of the Mediterranean Union meeting both are attending this weekend. Sleiman will travel even if the cabinet is not finalized. End Summary. SAAD'S RETURN -------------- ¶2. (C) CDA and Poloff met with Hariri senior advisor Ghattas Khoury at Khoury's office in Qoreitem on July 8. Khoury said Hariri returned to Beirut from Saudi Arabia July 8 in order to help lead discussions within the March 14 coalition over who will get what portfolio among the 16 seats designated for March 14. Khoury said Hariri was meeting with Walid Jumblatt, Samir Geagea, and PM-designate Fouad Siniora. CONCERN ABOUT A FRENCH DEAL WITH BASHAR AL-ASAD -------------- ¶3. (C) Before discussing cabinet politics, Khoury expressed concern about France and Syria. Looking ahead to the planned July 12-14 Mediterranean Union meeting in Paris, Khoury speculated that France, in conjunction with Qatar, might offer to protect Syrian President Bashar al-Asad, his family, and those close to them from prosecution by the Special Tribunal. Khoury asked that the USG approach the French at high levels to turn this off. He mentioned first contacting French FM Bernard Kouchner, but then said Kouchner may not know of any special deals because it is Claude Gueant, President Sarkozy's chief of staff, who has the lead on Franco/Syrian relations. Khoury said Hariri had raised this concern with French Ambassador Parant. Khoury argued that while Asad is not welcome in most Arab capitals, the French and other Europeans welcome him because he allowed the election of Lebanese President Michel Sleiman. According to Khoury, France could potentially receive lucrative oil drilling rights or other commercial deals as a reward for its protecting Asad from prosecution. SAAD HARIRI FILES CASE AGAINST THE FOUR GENERALS -------------- ¶4. (C) Khoury said that Hariri had just filed a legal motion against the four generals imprisoned since 2005 for their possible connection with the assassination of Hariri's father, former PM Rafiq Hariri, in order to preserve the Hariri family's rights. There has been mounting pressure on the judges involved in the case to release the generals or go forward with a prosecution. If the pressure continues to grow and the judges move to release the four generals, Hariri's motion would stall the release proceedings for six months. Khoury said that the Saudis told UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon that they would be willing to finance all of the Special Tribunal's costs. CABINET FORMATION -------------- ¶5. (C) Khoury then turned to the March 14 internal struggles over the cabinet. Hariri wants to name Khoury, his man, to one of the seats designated for March 14 Christians in the new cabinet. Khoury lambasted his nominal March 14 ally Nayla Mouawad for her calls to foreign embassies and governments to try to block this so that she can retain the seat for herself. An agitated Khoury argued that it looks bad for Mouawad to seek help from foreign governments against her own coalition and that this could be used against March 14 by the opposition. ¶6. (C) Khoury added that Saad Hariri and Fouad Siniora had come to an agreement over the issue of designating the de facto Finance Minister and Siniora will get "everything he wants" Khoury also noted that current Transportation and Public Works Minister Mohammed Safadi will not receive the same portfolio in the new cabinet and that Walid Jumblatt's PSP party will be given this portfolio. Safadi will get something else, perhaps Economy. ¶7. (C) Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea is supporting Mouawad and he also was a target of Khoury's ire. He criticized Geagea's choices for the cabinet saying that no one knew anything about them and that Geagea should nominate known, big-name Christians to really counteract opposition Christian leader Michel Aoun. One exception: Geagea's presumed candidate for Justice Minister, Ibrahim Najjar, whom Khoury thought was solid. Khoury, a surgeon, also was dismissive of Michel Aoun's cabinet choices, noting that several of Aoun's five choices for cabinet ministers were former doctors who "never examined a patient." ¶8. (C) Khoury thought that likely Hizballah minister Mohammed Fanesh would be the leader of the opposition within the cabinet. Khoury said that without a doubt, Fanesh was the strongest of the probable opposition ministers because Fanesh could carry out promises he made, while so many of the others are weak and ill-suited to their posts. Fanesh was the principle opposition negotiator with March 14 during the Doha Conference, Khoury said. Ali Qanso, a member of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP) will receive one of the three seats allotted to Hizballah, according to Khoury, as a reward for the SSNP's support during the fighting that occurred in May. Khoury's summation: Qanso "will represent Syrian intelligence" within the cabinet. GEAGEA-HARIRI MEETING SO-SO -------------- ¶9. (C) Separately, Elie Khoury, advisor to Lebanese Forces' leader Samir Geagea, told poloff that Geagea's July 8 session with Saad was "just O.K.," with no solution reached. Khoury argued that Saad's change of position was the root of the hold-up. He claimed that "from the beginning" March 14 had agreed that the March 14 Christians would nominate five Christian ministers, and Saad and Walid Jumblatt would each nominate one Christian minister. Now Saad is insisting to appoint three Christian ministers, to include Saad's advisor Ghattas Khoury, leaving the March 14 Christians to appoint only four Christians. According to Khoury, this is something the March 14 Christians "cannot compromise on, nor can this attitude (by Saad) continue." COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) The internal March 14 conflict may prevent agreement on a cabinet by the unofficial deadline of President Michel Sleiman's trip to France on Saturday July 12 to attend the Mediterranean Union meeting. Sleiman's office announced on July 9 that Sleiman will meet Syrian President Bashar al-Asad in Paris on the margins of the meeting. It will be Sleiman's first meeting with Asad since becoming Lebanon's president. Sleiman's office told us, and the French Ambassador confirmed to CDA, that Sleiman will make the trip even if there is no cabinet agreement. In fact, the unofficial deadline may be one day sooner, as Sleiman will be occupied with his daughter's wedding on Friday July 11. Saad's push for a cabinet seat for his man Ghattas Khoury may cause hard feelings in March 14. Khoury has been a key figure in the creation and development of March 14 but he has no Christian base, unlike Nayla Mouawad and Samir Geagea. End Comment. GRANT