LEBANON: ELECTORAL REFORM--WHAT'S FEASIBLE BY 2009?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000984 SIPDIS DEPT FOR DRL/FO, NEA/FO, NEA/ELA, NEA/PI NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/02/2018 TAGS: EAID KDEM PGOV PHUM UNSC LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: ELECTORAL REFORM--WHAT'S FEASIBLE BY 2009? REF: A. BEIRUT 00889 ¶B. BEIRUT 00907 Classified By: CDA WILLIAM GRANT FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (U) UN and EU electoral assessment teams held a meeting for the donor community on June 27. The UN team argued that only "feasible" reforms should be promoted for the time being, and the rest should wait until the 2013 elections. According to Craig Jenness, a UN electoral assistance expert, achievable reforms that can and should be done now include; introducing a single, pre-printed ballot system to promote ballot secrecy; having same day voting and changing the method by which ballots are counted. Jenness added that reforms such as the creation of an Independent Electoral Commission (IEC),out-of-country voting, and lowering the voting age would probably not occur in time before the upcoming 2009 parliamentary elections and should wait until ¶2013. Regarding the feasible reforms, Jenness said the effort must begin now to see that these reforms are achieved. The GOL also must begin preparations, and the donor community must begin coordination, to help the Lebanese hold successful elections in 2009. Embassy local partners on electoral reform say the UN has a poor track record in Lebanon. End Summary. UN, EU, AND MEXICAN ELECTORAL REFORM PROGRAMS -------------- ¶2. (U) Craig Jenness, Director of the UN Electoral Assistance Division, opened a June 27 briefing for embassies in Beirut by saying the UN assessment team's focus would be on providing technical assistance to the GOL and on identifying which electoral reforms are feasible before the spring 2009 parliamentary elections take place. Jenness said there existed a general level of trust between the UN and the Ministry of Interior, the GOL ministry charged with overseeing elections. The UN sent an observation mission to monitor the 2005 parliamentary elections and those elections were generally well-administered, according to Jenness. The UN will complete its technical study in early July and will most likely move ahead with its technical assessment project. ¶3. (U) In addition to the UN assessment team, there is also a EU assessment team on the ground in Beirut from June 27 to July 15 conducting a feasibility study on the so-called Boutros Law reforms. This study, according to Patrick Laurent, EU Head of Delegation in Beirut, will be a technical study that will offer cost analysis and recommendations for the international donor community to determine how much time and funding is needed to enact the Boutros reforms (Note: The National Commission on Electoral Law, which was created by order of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora in 2005, developed most of the reforms outlined in the draft electoral law, known as the Boutros law, submitted to the GOL before the July 2006 war. End Note.) The relevant committee in the Lebanese parliament has already completed two sessions on electoral reform. MPs are pessimistic about adopting most of the Boutros Law reforms, Jenness said. Therefore, the UN would not push for reforms it deems politically unlikely. ¶4. (U) In addition to the UN and EU team, Mexican Ambassador Jorge Alvarez said the Mexican mission in Beirut also will have a electoral reform team in Beirut from July 14-19. Alvarez said his team will offer coordination and technical seminars and workshops on issues such as reform of the ballot system to GOL, NGO and international community representatives. The Mexicans have approval from the UN and will coordinate with them. FEASIBLE REFORMS ARE THE IMPORTANT ONES -------------- ¶5. (U) According to Jenness, the most important reform taken from the Boutros Law is reform of the ballot system. According to Jenness, ballot secrecy is a feasible reform that is very important and can be enacted now. Currently, BEIRUT 00000984 002 OF 002 many voters' ballots can be linked back to them, making the voters vulnerable to reprisals, according to Jenness. Therefore, advocacy for pre-printed ballots located within the polling station that cannot be linked back to the voter is very important, he said. This is the single most import contribution that the international community can make in terms of advocating for electoral reform in Lebanon, he added. ¶6. (U) Jenness said that the GOL and international donors can wait until the 2013 parliamentary elections to enact as many reforms as possible or, the better option in Jenness's view, take small steps now towards some reform before the 2009 elections. He added that achievable reforms that can and should be done now, such as a single, pre-printed ballot to promote ballot secrecy, same day voting throughout the country, and changing the way counting is done (i.e., not in polling stations, but at some central location) are all achievable reforms that can be in place before 2009. UNACHIEVABLE REFORMS CAN WAIT TILL 2013 -------------- ¶7. (U) Jenness added that in his opinion the creation of an Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) would probably not occur in time before the upcoming 2009 parliamentary elections. In addition, out-of-country voting and the lowering of the voter age would also be unachievable at this time, according to consultations that Jenness has had with election officials and MPs. Reform of the media and campaign finance systems were also problematic, because these reforms rely on the existence of an IEC. WORK MUST BEGIN IMMEDIATELY -------------- ¶8. (U) Jenness's last message to the group was that the GOL and the international donor community must move quickly in order to enact any of the Boutros reforms before the spring. The challenge is in coordinating quickly, according to Jenness. If coordination is poor, the UN and EU assessments will not be effective, he added. There is also a need for increased coordination at the implementation stage. In addition, political messaging from the international community will be another important factor. In Jenness's view it is best to let the UN take the lead on donor coordination and assistance. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) Many local partners have told us that the UN has a less-than-stellar record of effective performance on electoral reform issues. For example, UN workshops on electoral reform in Lebanon have been poorly organized and often occur at the last minute, coordination with local NGOs and the donor community has been inconsistent, and the UN's strategic planning on this issue is lagging behind U.S. and EU efforts. Therefore, our local implementing partners are somewhat reluctant about agreeing to "follow" the UN on this issue. We have been in close contact with EU, UN and Mexican representation in Beirut on this issue and have explained USG electoral assistance programs. End Comment. GRANT