LEBANON: ON CABINET, PROGRESS WITH AOUN BUT NOT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000983 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: ON CABINET, PROGRESS WITH AOUN BUT NOT WITHIN MARCH 14 REF: A. BEIRUT 948 ¶B. BEIRUT 963 Classified By: Acting Charge d'Affaires a.i. William K. Grant for reaso ns 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) There was significant progress on cabinet formation July 5-6, when the majority and the opposition reached an agreement on the portfolio distribution. Contacts from both sides told us on Saturday, July 5 there might be cabinet agreement by the end of the day. However, the optimism faded somewhat as the internal competition for seats within March 14, mainly among the Christians, has risen to the forefront. Both the majority and the opposition view the ministerial positions as ways to attract votes in the spring 2009 parliamentary elections. An advisor to Lebanese Forces head Samir Geagea complained to us that March 14 is not thinking strategically about how cabinet appointments today can help keep the Christian vote next year. Hizballah seems to be rewarding its allies by designating non-members of Hizballah to two of its three seats. Separately, Aoun led opposition Christians in forming a new political front called The National Christian Gathering. End summary. AOUN NO LONGER THE OBSTACLE -------------- ¶2. (C) As the discussions on cabinet formation entered their seventh week, the lull in cabinet formation (Ref A) ended and significant progress was seen between the March 14 majority and the opposition. Great optimism prevailed on July 5 that a cabinet would be imminently formed both before and after a meeting between PM-designate Siniora and Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun. They reached agreement on the five positions that Aoun will fill in the new 30-member cabinet and the persons to fill them. Having secured the telecommunications portfolio and apparently satisfied with the five-seat package, Aoun has stopped obstructing (for now) the cabinet formation. ¶3. (C) PM-designate Fouad Siniora's senior aide Mohammed Chatah confirmed to us the agreement with Aoun and said Siniora had interviewed the five Aoun designees on July 6. Chatah expressed concern about who Hizballah would designate for its three positions, as Hizballah's representatives did not provide three names in their meeting with Siniora on the cabinet. DIVISIONS WITHIN MARCH 14: FOUR MARONITE CANDIDATES FOR TWO POSITIONS -------------- ¶4. (C) While there is progress with the opposition, all is not well within the March 14 majority on the division of its 16 seats in the new cabinet. ONE point of contention: four Maronite candidates are vying for two Maronite ministries. Lebanese Forces' leader Samir Geagea is pushing for the majority to retain current caretaker Social Affairs Minister Nayla Mouawad, in addition to naming a candidate from his own party. The reason is to better position Mouwad for what promises to be a competitive 2009 parliamentary electoral race in her home area of Zgharta against opposition Christian opponents. ¶5. (C) Meanwhile, majority leader Saad Hariri is pushing for a seat for Ghattas Khoury, a trusted senior advisor to Saad and a Maronite. Phalange (Kataeb) leader and former President Amine Gemayel is insisting on the appointment of a Kataeb minister, which brings the total to four Maronite candidates. ¶6. (C) A senior aide to Geagea complained to CDA on July 7 that Geagea's allies in March 14 are being shortsighted in deciding on the March 14 Christian representation in the cabinet. They should be using the Christian seats available to them to bolster the prospects of Christians like Geagea and current minister Nayla Mouwad for the 2009 elections. Instead, they are considering naming technocrats or Hariri's aide Ghattas Khoury to the "Christian" seats, which will not help in getting the 2009 Christian vote, the aide said. DISAGREEMENTS OVER FINANCE, JUSTICE, PUBLIC WORKS -------------- ¶7. (C) Other differences of opinion within March 14 concern the finance, justice, and public works portfolios. Siniora likely will be designated Finance Minister as well as be PM, requiring the appointment of another senior official to be de facto Finance Minister. Siniora hopes to appoint Umar Bekdashi, a financial expert living in Switzerland, but we understand that majority leader Saad Hariri prefers Shia MP Ghazi Youssef. ¶8. (C) Geagea is looking to appoint the justice minister, but Saad wants to appoint Tripoli MP Samir Jisr instead. As for public works, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt is asking to nominate a candidate for the portfolio, arguing that he "lost" the telecommunications portfolio, designated by him in the former cabinet and now given to Aoun. However, current Public Works Minister Mohammed Safadi, a March 14 Sunni, wants to retain his position and can make an argument that he controls four key March 14 MPs from Tripoli. March 14 leaders are trying to work out their differences while a key leader, Saad Hariri, is once again in Saudi Arabia. LIST OF DESIGNATED MINISTERS -------------- ¶9. (C) Following is a list of the names that have been circulated and are likely (but not definite) for ministerial positions: ¶A. President Sleiman (three seats) ¶1. Defense: Elias Murr (incumbent) ¶2. Interior: Ziad Baroud (electoral reform expert, active in Boutros Commission; purportedly liked by both majority and opposition) ¶3. Minister of State (without a portfolio): (though unclear as of July 7, the names of Talal Makdissi or Camille Menassah have been discussed) ¶B. Opposition (eleven seats divided into three each for Amal and Hizballah, five for Aoun) AMAL ¶1. Foreign Affairs: Fawzi Salloukh (Amal, incumbent) ¶2. Health: Mohammed Khalifeh (Amal, incumbent) ¶3. Industry: Ghazi Zuayter (Amal, former Defense Minister) HIZBALLAH ¶4. Labor: Mohammed Fneish (Hizballah, current Energy Minister) ¶5. Youth and Sports: Ali Qanso (SSNP, Shia) or another Hizballah-affiliated person ¶6. Minister of State: Talal Arslan (An opposition Druze politician; Arslan will be appointed by Hizballah as part of an exchange with Jumblatt, who will in turn appoint a Shia minister, likely Ibrahim Shamseddine, Ref B) AOUN BLOC ¶7. Deputy PM and Minister of State: Issam Abu Jamra (FPM member and former General) ¶8. Telecommunications: Gebran Bassil (Aoun's advisor and son-in-law; nominated to head the ministry which is the government's largest revenue source) ¶9. Social Affairs: Mario Aoun (not a relative, but an active FPM member) ¶10. Agriculture: Elie Skaff (Aoun's bloc, likely slated for this portfolio for political positioning in the parliamentary elections since his hometown, Zahle, is an important agricultural district) ¶11. Energy: Alain Tabourian (member of Armenian Tashnaq, appointed by Aoun) BENEFITING FROM SERVICE PORTFOLIOS -------------- ¶10. (C) Many of the political figures from both the opposition and the majority are eyeing their portfolios as ways to attract voters to their party for the spring 2009 parliamentary elections. Successful management of service portfolios, such as public works, agriculture, and health, appeals to citizens' needs and garners their political support. HIZBALLAH REWARDING ITS ALLIES -------------- ¶11. (C) An interesting development to watch is what Hizballah does with the three cabinet seats to which it is entitled in the expanded 30-member cabinet. Current reports say Hizballah will name only ONE Hizballah party member and will, with the other two seats, reward political allies from the 2006 war. ONE of those allies, reports say, will be opposition Druze leader Talal Arslan and the other is Ali Qanso of the Syrian Socialist National Party. This would suggest Hizballah is looking toward strengthening alliances for the 2009 elections. AOUN FORMS CHRISTIAN POLITICAL FRONT -------------- ¶12. (C) Separately, Aoun led opposition Christians on July 4 in launching a new political front called The National Christian Gathering. Others in the group include MP Elie Skaff and former ministers and MPs Suleiman Franjieh and Fares Boueiz. The group announced a platform that includes promoting dialogue within the Christian community and with Muslims, the dangers of Palestinian settlement and land purchases by non-Lebanese, and marginalization of Christians in government and security services. (Comment: This may be positioning for 2009 elections, especially to counter the Christian support for Sleiman at Aoun's expense. End comment.) COMMENT -------------- ¶13. (C) Five days before Syrian president Assad is due to be received in Paris, Syria's allies in Lebanon are conveying an impression of being quite reasonable on cabinet formation. March 14, by contrast, looks divided and unprepared. Our contacts inform us that March 14 has not met as a group to discuss strategy or cabinet formation since before the May clashes, except to nominate Siniora as the PM. ¶14. (C) Aoun conceded on some of his original demands and accepted a package of five cabinet seats that does not appear unreasonable. His opposition allies Amal and Hizballah were quiet, letting Aoun take the lead on negotiations with March 14 and not demanding more than what could be considered reasonable for themselves. But just when it seemed there would be an agreement, new divisions opened within the March 14 bloc over the division of seats allocated to it, while the bloc's Sunni leader, Saad Hariri, is once again away from Lebanon in Saudi Arabia. It appears that it will take only a few days to resolve the internal March 14 differences, but this does not bode well for March 14 unity in the new cabinet. End comment. GRANT