LEBANON: PATIENT SINIORA WANTS ACTION FROM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000975 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/KUMAR/PHEE NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO CENTCOM J5 FOR MG ALLARDICE USAID FOR BEVER/LAUDATO/SCOTT E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/02/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR EAID UNSC KPAL IS LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: PATIENT SINIORA WANTS ACTION FROM NASRALLAH; MAKES NEW OFFER TO AOUN ON CABINET FORMATION REF: BEIRUT 963 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- 1.(U) Action request -- see paras 16,17. 2.(C) Commenting on Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah's July 2 speech, Prime Minister-designate Fouad Siniora said he wants to see actions by Hizballah on facilitating the resolution of Sheba'a, and to test Nasrallah's true intentions about accepting the authority of the Lebanese state. Acknowledging he had offered a new proposal on cabinet formation to Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun the day before, Siniora said that he remained open to portfolio distributions, including the Justice Ministry, and that he was waiting "patiently" for a response from Aoun. ¶3. (C) Siniora clarified his position on the UN cartographer's assessment on Sheba'a, explaining that he was not necessarily agreeing with the assessment, but viewed it as a good starting point for implementing a settlement of the issue. Describing Lebanon's annual battle with forest fires, Siniora requested USG assistance in leasing fire-fighting aircraft. End summary. "RUNNING WITH" THE OPPORTUNITIES PRESENTED IN NASRALLAH'S SPEECH -------------- ¶4. (C) The Charge, accompanied by DCM and PolOff, met with PM-designate Fouad Siniora and his advisors Mohammed Chatah and Roula Noureddine at the Grand Serail on July 3. A fairly upbeat Siniora noted Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah's "amenable" approach to establishing Lebanese sovereignty over Sheba'a that he heard during Nasrallah's July 2 televised speech reftel). Pointing to what he deemed a new Hizballah position on Sheba'a Farms, Siniora said "I will take this opportunity and run with it." ¶5. (C) He explained that, too often, the "right" words mask true intentions. He wanted to see actions to prove Nasrallah's words that seemed to indicate that Hizballah is willing to allow a real Lebanese state to operate. Siniora noted that Nasrallah said he wanted to facilitate the liberation of Sheba'a, and said he will seize the opportunity to test this assertion. ¶6. (C) While the PM did not know how the prisoners' exchange with Israel would be finalized, Noureddine said she believed an agreement would be signed in Beirut, whereas Chatah had heard it would take place in Germany. Siniora lamented that the exchange gives Hizballah the opportunity to show that force, rather than diplomacy, achieves results. NEW PROPOSAL ON CABINET FORMATION -------------- ¶7. (C) The Charge inquired about Siniora's latest proposal on cabinet formation offered to Free Patriotic Movement Michel Aoun the previous day. Siniora provided no details, noting only that Sleiman, Chatah, Aoun, and himself were aware of full offer. Chatah noted that the press was wrong in its coverage of the offer, and that they had not yet received a response from Aoun. (July 2 press reports said Siniora had offered that Aoun could name the public works minister, Deputy PM, and some other ministers.) ¶8. (C) Siniora calmly explained that he was exercising flexibility and patience on the cabinet formation, and not vetoing the offer of any portfolio. He added that although the opposition has repeatedly obstructed the process, he sensed the opposition wants to come to an agreement. He could not guess at the opposition's timing to agree on a BEIRUT 00000975 002 OF 003 cabinet, but speculated that Syria would want it done before President Bashar al-Assad's July 12 visit to Paris. In response to the DCM's inquiry about whether the Justice Ministry was a redline issue, Siniora said simply, "We are open." CARTOGRAPHER'S DEFINITION ON SHEBA'A A "GOOD BASIS FOR DISCUSSION" -------------- ¶9. (C) When the Charge asked for clarification on Siniora's April 2, 2008 letter to the UN SYG (in which Siniora called the UN cartographer's proposed definition of Sheba'a a "reasonable and practical basis" for resolving the issue), Siniora replied that he was not accepting the cartographer's assessment, but instead was agreeing that the definition is a "good basis for implementation and an interim step toward resolution." He acknowledged that there will always be a quarrel over details and he does not want to be drawn into a debate over whether "a fig tree" is in Lebanese territory or not. PALESTINIANS REMAIN THE "REAL PROBLEM" -------------- ¶10. (C) Siniora raised his concern about the Palestinians in Lebanon, and his fear that "everyone is busy solving their own problems, and in the aftermath, Lebanon will still face the sizable refugee population within its borders." The Charge commented that President Michel Sleiman had voiced the same concern earlier in the day (septel). Siniora responded, "(Sleiman and I) are on the same page on a number of issues -- our chemistry is excellent." ¶11. (C) Charge asked about follow up on the Vienna donors conference for Nahr al Barid Palestinian refugee camp reconstruction. Siniora added that the GOL is trying to "put our house in order" for utilizing pledges that have been made and will be made. He repeated his opposition to naturalization of the Palestinian refugees in Lebanon but pointed out that efforts to help the Palestinians are needed; "It is better (for Palestinians and Lebanese) to live in harmony until they can leave." ¶12. (C) Regarding the absence of announced pledges by Gulf states at the June 23 Vienna conference, Siniora described his "supermarket approach" whereby the camp's needs had been itemized in such a way that donors could select specific ways they could assist, for example, constructing the sewage system. This is the approach the GOL hopes will work with the Gulf states' development funds to encourage donations. He did not have any updates regarding a Riyadh meeting of Gulf and Arab development funds, donors, which was to have taken place this week. URGES ACTION ON PALESTINIAN-ISRAELI ISSUE -------------- ¶13. (C) "President Bush should have moved much earlier on the Israeli-Palestinian track," Siniora stated, while recognizing that President Bush "still has an opportunity to make progress." He added that resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will help the U.S. in Iraq, explaining that Iran has "hijacked" many of the regional issues. If the U.S. can be perceived in a better light because of its role with Israel/Palestine, Iran will be subsequently weakened, Siniora said. ¶14. (C) Stating that moderate Arabs throughout the region are disappointed with the international community, the PM referred to a conversation the previous day with UK Ambassador Frances Guy, who visited Siniora to explain the UK terrorist designation of Hizballah's military wing on July 2. Siniora asked rhetorically, "Why now? What is the point?" NEED FIRE-FIGHTING PLANES BEIRUT 00000975 003 OF 003 -------------- ¶15. (C) Siniora then asked Charge for assistance to address fires that annually threaten forested areas of the Chouf, Akkar, and Mount Lebanon. Siniora requested USG assistance in leasing fire-fighting planes for three months of the summer. He also asked about USG assistance to refurbish five twenty year old GOL-owned AB-212 helicopters. ACTION REQUEST -------------- ¶16. (C) Embassy Beirut looked into the PM's request and has determined that the referenced helicopters require a year to become operational and therefore could not be serviced in time for the summer. Regarding leasing planes, Embassy Beirut requests Department contact the National Interagency Fire Center (http://www.nifc.gov/) and inquire about leasing fixed wing aircraft, fire-fighting crews, and fire retardant for the GOL. Office of Defense Cooperation chief is looking into utilizing USCENTCOM Humanitarian Assistance funds for this purpose via J-5. USAID Beirut is also looking into the possibility of USAID assistance in this regard. ¶17. (SBU) Embassy Beirut has preliminarily assessed that Lebanon would need the following: Equipment for 100 twenty-person fire-fighting teams; Lease three fire-fighting helicopters; and Lease one fixed wing fire-fighting aircraft. End action request. SISON