LEBANON: SLEIMAN OPTIMISTIC ABOUT CABINET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000970 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA, PRM/FO NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO DOD/OSD FOR EDELMAN, LONG, DALTON E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/03/2018 TAGS: PGOV PTER PREF KPAL SY IS LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: SLEIMAN OPTIMISTIC ABOUT CABINET FORMATION AND SEES NEW TONE IN NASRALLAH'S REMARKS Classified By: CDA Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) On July 3, President Michel Sleiman told the Charge he was optimistic that the cabinet would be named before he travels to Paris on July 12th. "I knew this would take some time. It is important for us to have a dialogue and solve these issues on our own." Sleiman predicts that low-level violence in the Tripoli area and elsewhere will diminish once a cabinet is named. The President believes that a meeting he had with two Hizballah officials prior to the Nasrallah speech on July 2 had a favorable impact on the tone of the remarks, which Sleiman called a "positive declaration" that opened "a new window" for cooperation on several key issues, including the resolution of the Shebaa Farms issue. Finally, Sleiman asked the USG to continue supporting the GOL's efforts to assist the Palestinian refugees in Lebanon. He stressed the importance of concrete support from the Gulf countries for the Nahr al Barid reconstruction effort and asked the USG to help pressure donor governments for contributions. End Summary. Optimistic About Cabinet Formation After Active Engagement -------------- ¶2. (C) Charge discussed with President Sleiman a poll by NowLebanon.com (a pro-March 14th media outlet) dated July 2 which asked readers to speculate on why Sleiman has not intervened to end the current impasse on the cabinet. (Note: Of the 1,134 respondents to the poll, 15 percent believe that Sleiman had not intervened because he is determined the see all groups represented and 85 percent believe he had not intervened due to concerns about the security situation if all parties were not satisfied with the decision. End Note.) Sleiman bridled at the poll's suggestion that he had been on the sidelines in the cabinet formation process. He said the wrong question had been asked by NowLebanon.com: "I have been intervening in this process since Day One. I have had constant meetings with all of the parties during the day, the evening, and even on weekends. I have been very active. Perhaps the polling question should have been 'What effect or influence has Sleiman's intervention had on the impasse?' It would be more interesting to know the people's perception of that question." ¶3. (C) Turning back to the consultation process, Sleiman said he was optimistic that a new cabinet would be named before he departed for Paris on July 12. He confirmed that Prime Minister Siniora had made a new offer to Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun in a effort to finalize the portfolios of the new cabinet. Sleiman ended by saying that he was not surprised that the cabinet formation had taken some time. Security Situation Will Improve When Cabinet is Named -------------- ¶4. (C) When asked about the recent outbreak of violence in Tripoli and the north, Sleiman characterized the skirmishes as "low-level incidents." He said the clashes have been caused by building tensions in the area, which he believes will diminish once the cabinet is named. He also praised Saad Hariri's July 2 public statement following his meeting with President Sleiman. (Note: Hariri said that the security situation is a source of concern for everyone in the country, but stressed that the Lebanese Armed Forces and the Internal Security Forces must be allowed to resolve conflicts "irrespective of political disputes in the country." End Note.) ¶5. (C) The Charge asked about Sleiman's views on the latest report released by the UN on Security Council Resolution 1701, but Sleiman had no substantive reaction. New Public Tone from Hizballah -------------- ¶6. (C) Sleiman confirmed that he had met with Hizballah officials Hussein al Khalil and Wafiq Safa on July 2, prior BEIRUT 00000970 002 OF 002 to SYG Nasrallah's speec later that evening. Sleiman described the meetng as positive. He added that he believed through the discussion, he had influenced a number of points in Nasrallah's remarks, which he said were much better than Nasrallah's last public statement. Sleiman was particularly pleased by the fact that Nasrallah publicly credited the UN, rather than Germany, as the lead for the negotiations for the anticipated release of Lebanese prisoners held by Israel. The Charge asked about the fact that the deal had been negotiated between Israel and Hizballah, with no Government of Lebanon involvement. Sleiman seemed unperturbed and said simply, "It's done." Sleiman believes that his conversation with Safa and al Khalil also led to Nasrallah's reference of the prisoner exchange as a victory and achievement for all Lebanon, not just Hizballah. The prisoners are expected back in 10-14 days and Sleiman said he had informed Safa that he would like to participate in the public ceremony to welcome the prisoners home. "I want to support this initiative and I want to meet these people myself." ¶7. (C) Sleiman told us that many in Lebanon had noticed the positive tone of Nasrallah's remarks. He highlighted Nasrallah's mention of Shebaa Farms. "When Nasrallah spoke of 'liberating the land,' he was backing away from his earlier refusal to allow the any UN involvement. This is a very slight nuance, but Nasrallah has opened a new window," according to Sleiman. "His language about a national dialogue and 'dtente' was also well-received." Messages for Washington -------------- ¶8. (C) Knowing that the Charge would shortly be in Washington, he asked her to specifically raise the issue of Palestinian refugees during her consultations. "This is a key issue for us and for Hizballah - we must work together to solve it." He noted that the Gulf countries had promised to pay for half of the $455 million cost to rebuild the Nahr al Barid refugee camp. Yet, almost two weeks after the Vienna donors conference and after a July 1 meeting in Riyadh of Gulf and Arab development funds, there still had been no formal announcement of a donation from the Gulf states. Sleiman asked for the USG to continue to press the Gulf governments for action on this issue. ¶9. (C) The Charge reiterated President Bush's invitation for President Sleiman to visit Washington. Sleiman replied that he would be available either before or after the UN General Assembly; the Charge promised to work closely with him to confirm suitable dates. SISON