LEBANON: JUMBLATT REPORTS SAUDIS FOCUSED ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000963 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/KUMAR/PHEE NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC SA IS LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: JUMBLATT REPORTS SAUDIS FOCUSED ON ELECTIONS, RESTRUCTURING THEIR SUPPORT REF: BEIRUT 865 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Recounting his recent trip to Saudi Arabia, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt told the Charge on July 2 that the Saudis are focused on restructuring Saad Hariri's Future Movement and on bolstering the Sunnis in anticipation of the 2009 parliamentary elections. Jumblatt expressed his concern that lingering tensions between the Druze and Hizballah in the Chouf could escalate out of control. Preparing to welcome home Druze prisoner Samir Qantar from Israel, Jumblatt noted his displeasure at how Hizballah and Israel excluded the GOL from the negotiations. Meanwhile, Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah, in a July 2 televised speech, reported on the prisoners exchange with Israel and expressed its readiness to restart the National Dialogue. End summary. SAUDIS INTERESTED IN RESTRUCTURING FUTURE MOVEMENT, ELECTIONS -------------- ¶2. (C) On July 2, the Charge, accompanied by DCM and PolOff, met with Druze leader Walid Jumblatt at his home in Clemenceau. Recounting his visit the previous month to Saudi Arabia where he met with Saudi King Abdullah, Foreign Minister Saud al Faisal, Prince Bandar, and Prince Mukrin, Jumblatt said the Saudis are focused on restructuring Saad Hariri's Future Movement and strengthening the Sunnis in anticipation of the 2009 parliamentary elections. ¶3. (C) Jumblatt relayed that the Saudis are disappointed that the large amount of money they gave to Saad last year did not produce tangible results. They want to push Saad, with whom they addressed this same issues during Saad's visit, to pursue a different strategy this year if they are to continue supporting him. ¶4. (C) Adding that he discussed land purchases in Lebanon with the Saudis, Jumblatt revealed that he had started buying land, which was slated to be purchased by the Shia, in a Druze area near Tarik Jdedieh in Beirut. Jumblatt said he is also considering buying land in predominately-Christian Kessarwan. CONTINUED TENSION BETWEEN DRUZE AND HIZBALLAH IN CHOUF -------------- ¶5. (C) Relaying that there has been a deep suspicion since the May clashes between the Druze and Hizballah in predominately-Druze Aley and Shweifat, Jumblatt said each side suspects the other of fortifying their weapon caches. It could easily spiral out of control, Jumblatt feared, and end up destroying Druze villages. Acknowledging that he does not control all of the Druze, he said that some are being supported and recruited by Hizballah, including Druze sheikhs. PREPARING TO WELCOME HOME DRUZE PRISONER FROM ISRAEL -------------- ¶6. (C) As Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah was making a televised speech on the imminent prisoner exchange with Israel, Jumblatt told us he was busy preparing for the arrival of Samir Qantar, who is Druze. Jumblatt, admitting that he was unenthused about the exchange given that no one in the government was consulted, said he would not attend Hizballah's welcoming celebration in the south, but was organizing something in conjunction with rival Druze leader Talal Arslan in Qantar's home village of Abey. FOCUSING ON THE ELECTIONS -------------- ¶7. (C) Listing off the electoral districts and their BEIRUT 00000963 002 OF 002 accompanying deputy seats, Jumblatt was tactically assessing where March 14 could be expected to prevail. He noted that the Metn district, with the Armenian votes, is an unknown variable. Recognizing his pessimistic outlook, Jumblatt concluded that the Armenian Tashnaq would not vote for March ¶14. ¶8. (C) Repeating what caretaker Social Affairs Minister Nayla Mouawad told us (reftel),Jumblatt believes it is worth the risk to ally with Sunni group Jamaa Islamiyah because it could mean support for March 14 in Sidon and in the north. CABINET FORMATION STILL STALLED -------------- ¶9. (C) Jumblatt said he is still hoping the opposition will accept his proposal to appoint Talal Arslan a minister of state without a portfolio in order for Jumblatt to appoint a Shia. Preferring to appoint independent Shia Ibrahim Shamseddine, Jumblatt believes Hizballa and Amal want MP Ghazi Youssef instead. Jumblat said Hizballah and Amal are delaying the cabine formation because they do not approve of Shamseddine's appointment. ¶10. (C) He added that March 14 continues to insist on appointing the Justice Minister, out of concern for supporting the Special Tribunal. He revealed that he met UN SYG Ban Ki Moon in Jeddah, who inquired about why Lebanon cannot move past its differences. Jumblatt said he expressed his concern about the survivability of the Tribunal, to which Moon reportedly responded that he is depressed by the Tribunal. NASRALLAH: ON PRISONERS, NATIONAL DIALOGUE -------------- ¶11. (C) Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah, in a speech aired while the Charge met with Jumblatt, reported on the status of the prisoners exchange with Israel. Speaking in a conciliatory tone, he said that five living prisoners would return to Lebanon sometime around July 15, and that, in addition, 200 Arab bodies, retained by Israel since 1978, would be returned. ¶12. (C) Nasrallah expressed Hizballah's readiness to restart the National Dialogue, adding that the organization is not attached to its weapons. He repeated Hizballah's stance that putting Sheba'a Farms under the guardianship of the UN is not considered a "liberation" of the territory. Nasrallah criticized the UK for designating Hizballah's military wing a "terrorist organization" earlier the same day, while stating his indifference to the decision. (Note: Nasrallah did not address cabinet or other internal Lebanese issues. End note.) COMMENT -------------- ¶13. (C) Nasrallah's speech likely will be perceived very positively because of the moderate tone and the "success" of securing the prisoners' release. Despite his repeated call to supporters to refrain from the usual celebratory shooting, many shots were heard for an extended time frame from Jumblatt's outdor patio. End comment. SISON