LEBANON: APPARENT LULL IN CABINET FORMATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000948 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/KUMAR/PHEE NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: APPARENT LULL IN CABINET FORMATION REF: BEIRUT 942 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Although there was an uptick in optimism on cabinet formation late in the week of June 23-27, by Monday June 30 all sides seem to be getting ready for a lull in negotiations. Speaker Berri, claiming frustration, is leaving for a conference in Quebec. March 14 has made a tactical withdrawal of its offer to Michel Aoun of five cabinet seats, saying he is asking too much. Aoun's negotiator counters that Aoun has already conceded on getting a sovereign ministry and finance and March 14 is risking agreement on a cabinet over one position, minister of public works. As of June 30, no new offers have been made and no negotiations are scheduled, but that could change quickly. March 14-aligned MP Mosbah Ahdab, having met with President Sleiman earlier on June 30, believes Sleiman is planning something on cabinet formation. End Summary. A FRUSTRATED BERRI LEAVES TOWN FOR A CONFERENCE -------------- ¶2. (C) After five weeks of continuous negotiations between the political leaders to form a cabinet, a lull is setting in. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri is preparing to depart for Quebec to attend a Francophone parliamentarians conference. Berri's advisor MP Ali Bazzi told the Charge on June 30 that Berri had been reluctant to travel, but has now decided to do so because he sees that agreement on a cabinet is not imminent. Bazzi said Berri is frustrated and feels he has been "fighting alone" to win agreement, but others are not cooperating. AOUN'S BLOC SEEKS A SECOND SERVICE MINISTRY -------------- ¶3. (C) Also on June 30, Michel Aoun's aide and principal negotiator Gebran Bassil complained to DCM that March 14 is holding up agreement over "one position", i.e., the public works portfolio that Aoun's bloc seeks to be added to the telecommunications portfolio and others. He confirmed what PM senior aide Mohamed Chatah told us on June 27 (reftel): that Aoun had backed down from demanding one of the four "sovereign" ministries in return for getting telecommunications. Arguing that Aoun had earlier backed down on a demand to appoint the finance minister, Bassil said that the bloc seeks another significant "service" ministry for those concessions. Public works fits the bill, but so would health, currently designated for Nabih Berri's Amal party, Bassil said. He added that Aoun's opposition partner, Hizballah, has not been active on cabinet formation efforts, leaving it to Aoun and Amal. ¶4. (C) Bassil said that Chatah called him late Friday June 27 after speaking with Siniora and Saad Hariri and pulled back the March 14 offer that Aoun had not accepted (deputy prime minister and telecommunications, social affairs, economy and industry ministers). He said that as of June 30 there were no new offers on the table and no negotiation sessions planned. ¶5. (C) In an aside, Bassil asserted that March 14 should have more vision. If Aoun's bloc is in the cabinet, it may cooperate and agree with Siniora on many issues, including the economy, Sheba'a, and arms. Having Aoun well represented in the cabinet will "create a new dynamic", Bassil said, in contrast to the 2005-08 cabinet in which Aoun's bloc did not participate. He hoped that March 14 understands this possibility, although Bassil admitted he has not raised it with his March 14 interlocutors. ¶6. (C) DCM asked about press reports that Qatar was playing some sort of broker role in the cabinet impasse. Bassil said that a Qatari he would not name came to Lebanon recently on a BEIRUT 00000948 002 OF 002 private visit for some "light" efforts to broker an agreement, but had departed. Bassil did not exclude the possibility of more involvement by Qatar to resolve the impasse. SLEIMAN PREPARING SOMETHING? -------------- ¶7. (C) A senior aide to Saad Hariri, Ghattas Khoury, confirmed to LES political assistant on June 30 that March 14 had withdrawn its offer to Aoun because Aoun is demanding too much. The ball is in the hands of President Michel Sleiman to broker an agreement, Khoury said, noting Sleiman's June 28 statement to the press that he anticipated that a cabinet would be formed within 48 hours. (Charge will see Saad Hariri, now back from Saudi Arabia, on July 1 to follow up.) ¶8. (C) Tripoli MP Mosbah Ahdab briefed the Charge on June 30 of his morning meeting with Sleiman and separately, with the Commander of Presidential Guard, Wadieh Ghafari. He said he urged Sleiman to "do something soon" and understood from Ghafari that they are planning something, despite the "perplexed" look Ahdab noted on Sleiman's face. Ahdab concluded that imminent cabinet formation depends on Sleiman's efforts, and it is irrelevant that Berri will be out of the country. "He can fly back early to convene parliament, if necessary," Ahdab shrugged. NO PRESCRIBED TIME LIMIT TO FORM CABINET -------------- ¶9. (C) As jockeying between the two sides continues, there have been whispers, probably from opposition sources, that the constitution sets a time limit for cabinet formation and that PM-designate Siniora must step down if he does not meet it. To quiet this talk, MP Robert Ghanem of March 14, who heads parliament's Administration and Justice Committee, noted in a June 30 Voice of Lebanon issue interview that while Article 64 of the constitution sets a time limit of thirty days for the presentation of the ministerial statement by the cabinet once the cabinet is formed, there is no time limit to form a cabinet with precedes the statement. COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) While there is frustration, we do not sense deep bitterness among the parties that would suggest cabinet formation talks are breaking down. Told about Speaker Berri's expected absence, Bassil was not concerned and said negotiations could still continue. "Berri could give his approval by phone," Bassil said. End Comment. SISON