LEBANON: MP MURR BLAMES AOUN FOR THE DISPUTES OVER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000859 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/KUMAR/PHEE NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: MP MURR BLAMES AOUN FOR THE DISPUTES OVER CABINET FORMATION REF: BEIRUT 733 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Independent MP Michel Murr blamed the disputes around the cabinet formation on Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun, saying that Aoun is displeased with the ministerial portfolios offered to him and is intentionally demanding ministries he cannot get in order to challenge Michel Sleiman's presidency. Murr told the Charge that a Qatari official who arrived in Beirut on June 6 has been sent by Qatari PM and FM Hamad bin Jassim to work on the security aspect of the Doha agreement in the wake of clashes between rival political groups and may also attempt to resolve the cabinet formation disputes. ¶2. (C) Murr characterized his Metn district as holding the pivotal eight parliamentary votes that could determine the majority and the opposition in the 2009 parliamentary elections. He said that Hizballah has already attempted to persuade Murr, who is confident his candidates will win all eight seats, to use his influence in Hizballah's favor. Murr confided to us that the seats may line up with March 14, but more likely will count themselves with President Sleiman, which would give them some independence from the two main political blocs in Lebanon, March 14 and March 8/Aoun. End summary. AOUN "TORPEDOING" CABINET FORMATION -------------- ¶3. (C) The Charge, accompanied by POLOFF and Senior LES Political Advisor, met with MP Michel Murr at his home in Rabieh on June 6. According to Murr, Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun is attempting to "torpedo" the cabinet discussions, just as he tried to "torpedo the negotiations in Doha" because he is not being offered any of the key ministries: Defense, Interior, Finance, or Foreign Affairs. Murr reported that there was an agreement in Doha (reftel) to distribute these four ministries according to the following formula: Two for the President (Defense and Interior),one for the Shia (Foreign Affairs),and one for the Sunni (Finance),and so Aoun, who heads a Christian party, has no valid claim. ¶4. (C) The remaining portfolios were to be divided proportionally between the majority and the opposition, Murr explained, with the majority having three of the five "services" ministries, Telecommunications, Public Works, and Justice (Murr does not anticipate incumbent Charles Rizk will stay on),and the opposition having the remaining two, Health and Labor. ¶5. (C) Murr relayed that Aoun is further angered because he does not consider acceptable what Murr dubbed the "extremely important" ministerial choices offered to him: Economy, Labor, Agriculture, Industry, and Social Affairs. For his part, Aoun is reportedly insisting on Transportation and Public Works, Information, and Telecommunications. Murr believes Aoun is intentionally "asking for the impossible" because he wants to obstruct the cabinet formation and to challenge the beginning of President Sleiman's term. ¶6. (C) Murr told us that if Aoun refuses to come to an agreement within one week, Murr will advise President Sleiman to form the cabinet without Aoun. Murr attributed solely to Aoun recent media reports saying that the entire opposition refused to accept Murr's son, caretaker Defense Minister Elias Murr, as the next Defense Minister. Murr considers the appointment of Elias by Sleiman to be "non-negotiable." ¶7. (C) Murr said Aoun's advisor and son-in-law, Gebran Bassil, has learned much from Aoun and is now insisting that he be minister in one of the seats demanded by Aoun, with the alternative being no agreement. Murr claimed that Aoun receives cash from Hizballah, while Bassil receives real BEIRUT 00000859 002 OF 003 estate, relaying that Bassil has recently acquired three buildings, each costing ten million dollars. ¶8. (C) The solution, Murr said smugly, is another "diplomatic pouch" of Qatari money to buy off Aoun. (Note: Murr was referring to what he believes transpired in Doha when Qatari Emir Hamad bin Khalifa purportedly spent 20 minutes and with Aoun provides two million dollars, shifting Aoun's position on Beirut districting. End note.) ¶9. (C) Murr shared with us that he had recorded the minutes from the Doha side-meetings, and plans to publish them in a brochure two weeks after the new cabinet is formed. He said he wants to make the Christian public opinion aware that Aoun did not represent the Christians at Doha because he was "marginalized and uninvolved in the discussions." QATARI OFFICIAL ARRIVING TO ENFORCE SECURITY ASPECT OF DOHA -------------- ¶10. (C) Murr told the Charge that Samir Jabr, the Office Director for Qatari PM and FM Hamad bin Jassim, would arrive in Beirut that day to sort out the security issues that have continued to persist in the aftermath of the Doha agreement. (Note: The security incidents have involved attacks on majority leader Saad Hariri's Future Movement supporters by opposition Amal members. On June 5, Saad called for Qatari assistance to help implement the security aspect of the Doha Agreement. End note.) Murr speculated that the Qatari official is also charged with resolving the disputes over the cabinet formation. METN IS CRITICAL TO WINNING ELECTIONS -------------- ¶11. (C) Murr said that both Hizballah and Saad Hariri have concluded that, given the electoral agreement reached in Doha, the majority and opposition will each win 60 of the 128 seats to be contested in the 2009 parliamentary elections. The remaining eight seats are in Murr's home Metn territory. Murr reported that on the flight to Doha in May, Hizballah MP Mohammed Raad wanted to discuss with Murr the Metn parliamentary elections, informing him that the eight seats will determine who constitutes the majority and the opposition. ¶12. (C) Murr, who is confident that he will secure all eight seats in the Metn, said he told Raad that he is not willing to discuss this issue until April 2009. Murr added that Hizballah security official Wafiq Safa also approached him on this topic when he returned from Doha, noting that he again refused to discuss Metn. Murr indicated to us that his seats would either go to March 14 (and that he spoke to Saad on this topic in Doha),but more likely would be committed to President Sleiman. ¶13. (C) Murr said that in a recent secret meeting with Saudi Ambassador Abed al-Aziz Khoja, Murr relayed that he advised Khoja not to use Saudi money to influence the elections until immediately prior to the election date. He reported that Hizballah has already provided Aoun with two million dollars to prepare for the elections, and has pledged another $25 million. ¶14. (C) The Tashnaq Party Armenians, Murr supposed, would remain allied with the opposition during the parliamentary elections, because they see it in their interest to continue to be part of Michel Aoun's bloc. Murr noted that President Sleiman had recently met with Tashnaq. (Note: Charge has a meeting scheduled on June 10 with Tashnaq leaders. End Note.) INEFFECTIVE MAJORITY MILITIAS -------------- ¶15. (C) Murr claimed that Saad spent $30 million over the course of the year to fund his 8,000-strong militia, but that it turned out none of them were prepared to fight Hizballah during the May clashes. Murr added that Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, whom he says is also receiving Saudi BEIRUT 00000859 003 OF 003 money to support his militia, only has 200 men, rather than the 1,000 claimed by Geagea. SISON