LEBANON: MARCH 14 SECRETARIAT WITH S/P GORDON: LOOKING

UNCLAS BEIRUT 000839 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA AND S/P IO FOR A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/GAVITO/YERGER USUN FOR KUMAR/PHEE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PINR EAID UNSC LE SY IR SUBJECT: LEBANON: MARCH 14 SECRETARIAT WITH S/P GORDON: LOOKING AHEAD TO 2009 ELECTIONS ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Middle East Regional developments and the 2009 election in Lebanon were foremost in the minds of March 14 Secretariat members who hosted a dinner for Policy Planning Director David Gordon during his June 2-3 visit to Lebanon. Discouraged after the May events and the May 21 Doha agreement, the Secretariat is nevertheless looking ahead for ways to win the 2009 elections, but point to competition with Iranian-funded Hizballah and securing the support of Christians as key challenges. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) On June 2, members of the March 14 Secretariat hosted a dinner in honor of David Gordon, Director of Policy Planning. CDA Sison, DCM, Pol/Econ Chief, Executive Assistant, Senior LES Political Advisor, and Policy Planning officers Todd Deatherage and Whitley Wolman also attended the dinner. Attendees from March 14 were Fares Suaid, Secretary General of the Secretariat; Qornet Shewan MP Samir Franjieh; Lebanese Forces member Edy Abi Lamaa; former MP and advisor to Saad Hariri Ghattas Khoury; member of former MP Nassib Lahoud's Democratic Renewal Movement Antoine Haddad; and member of the Phalange Party and son-in-law of former President Amine Gemayel Michel Mecattaf. ¶3. (SBU) Suaid relayed that March 14 currently is analyzing the "side effects" of the May 7 events, but added that March 14 stalwarts Walid Jumblatt and Saad Hariri are in a much better mood after the election of President Michel Sleiman. He said that March 14 is often left in the dark about regional developments, such as the Syrian-Israeli talks and Iran's relationship with the U.S. after recent developments in Iraq. Souaid further noted that Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah is trying to send the message that the resistance is the only model, vice negotiations, that can restore Arab rights. Souaid added that March 14 should continue its pressure on the issue of Hizballah's weapons in order to balance Hizballah's influence; otherwise, President Sleiman will find himself "inside the state of Hizballah" after two years. ¶4. (SBU) Antoine Haddad called the May 21 Doha agreement a transitional one, stressing that March 14's struggle for an independent and sovereign Lebanon remains the same. The election of President Sleiman opens the door for a new way forward, Haddad said, and March 14's objective should be to win the parliamentary elections scheduled for 2009. He said that March 14's struggle is not a domestic one, but rather has a regional dimension because Iran and Syria are implicated. He said Iran, through various statements, is saying that it won a round in Lebanon (events of May 7) and that Iran's offensive will continue. He believed March 14 has enough time to reshape itself, but noted that March 14 does not have a road map to achieve its goals. He expressed concerns that the U.S. presidential election will have adverse effects on the activities of March 14, without elaborating. ¶5. (SBU) Michel Mecattaf, advisor and son-in-law to former President Amine Gemayel, said March 14 should reinstate its regular meetings and consolidate the alliance. He said "people believe that March 14 is on a downward slope and might shift to the March 8 camp." He added that Doha consolidated Hizballah's grip on the Shia community and Hariri's grip on the Sunni community. The struggle during the 2009 parliamentary elections is going to be in the Christian areas and whoever obtains the Christian votes could shift the majority in parliament, either toward March 14 or March 8. ¶6. (SBU) Mecattaf also believes that Iran will pour money into its allies in order to ensure their success in the next parliamentary elections. He claimed that Iran has allocated $400 million to be spent by Gebran Bassil, Michel Aoun's son-in-law, once Bassil receives the public works portfolio in the next cabinet. He said this amount will be spent in the predominately Christian Metn region in order to consolidate Aoun's popularity in that district which has eight MPs. Mettacaf also said that Iran will raise its contributions substantially to reach $1.4 billion to be spent in the various regions. ¶7. (U) S/P Director Gordon did not have an opportunity to review this message before departing Lebanon. SISON