LEBANON: GEAGEA WONDERS IF NEW CABINET WILL BE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000790 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/KUMAR/PHEE NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/28/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: GEAGEA WONDERS IF NEW CABINET WILL BE FORMED; RECOMMENDS KHOURY AS NEXT LAF COMMANDER REF: A. BEIRUT 780 ¶B. BEIRUT 759 ¶C. BEIRUT 766 Classified By: CDA Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, pleased that Fouad Siniora will likely be re-appointed as PM, cast doubt to the Charge on May 28 that a new cabinet would be formed. Unconcerned, Geagea explained that a caretaker cabinet composed of all of the resigned ministers, headed by Siniora, is preferable to a cabinet in which key ministries are controlled by the opposition. At least two of the three key ministries (Interior, Defense, and Finance) he argued, should be under the control of March 14 members, rather than opposition figures. Siniora was re-appointed as PM in a parliamentary vote later that day. ¶2. (C) Geagea believes that current LAF G-2 (military intelligence) Director General Georges Khoury is the best candidate for LAF Commander, in spite of Saad Hariri's wishes that Khoury not be appointed. Geagea expressed concern that the Republican Guard at President Michel Sleiman's Baabda Palace are "infiltrated by Syrian loyalists." SAAD NOT THE "RIGHT MAN" FOR PM AT THIS TIME -------------- ¶3. (C) The Charge, accompanied by PolOff, met with Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, and his advisors Elie Khoury and Joseph Tohme, at his residence in Maarab on May 28. Geagea reported on his meetings the previous day with newly-elected President Michel Sleiman, PM Fouad Siniora, and the March 14 leaders. Geagea relayed that Siniora and majority leader Saad Hariri had agreed prior to the larger March 14 meeting the night before that Siniora should be nominated as the next PM (Ref A),and the larger group collectively concurred. (Note: Parliament endorsed Siniora as the new PM a few hours after this meeting. End note) ¶4. (C) Geagea added that Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt was intentionally late to the meeting to absolve himself of any future blame. (Note: Jumblatt was meeting at his residence with the Charge when the March 14 meeting started, and was in no hurry to move to his next �00A;appointment. End note.) ¶5. (C) Geagea said that although this decision was supported by the Saudis, Egyptians, and Emiratis, Saad is still upset because he felt as if he had carried Sleiman to the presidency and now, "His baby is being taken by another mother." Nevertheless, Geagea is pleased, saying, "Saad is not up to the challenges that lie ahead. He is not consistently strategic, his emotions affect his decision-making, and his supporters lost faith in his ability to protect him (during the recent clashes)." CASTING DOUBT ON PROSPECTS FOR A NEW GOVERNMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) Geagea cautioned the Charge against the U.S. issuing formal congratulations to PM-designate Siniora until the cabinet is formed -- a process he suspects may not be so easy. He believes the opposition will make demands for cabinet positions that the majority is not willing to meet. Geagea expects President Sleiman to choose one of his own people as the Minister of Interior. Rejecting the likelihood of MP Michel Murr as the next Interior Minister, Geagea believes it will be someone "apolitical," such as retired Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) BG Fares Soufia, head of Military Police BG Nabil Ghafari, industrialist Neemot Frem, or Ghassan Khoury. ¶7. (C) In the event a cabinet is not formed, he explained, the resigned ministers constitute a caretaker cabinet and the BEIRUT 00000790 002 OF 003 PM is considered a PM-designate. According to Geagea, the caretaker cabinet does not meet officially, and only in emergency cases, can approve bills. He anticipates such an emergency case could be approving the next LAF Commander. Such a cabinet could not make economic or budgetary decisions, he continued, and so the current year's budget would be approved for next year with only a cost of living adjustment. ¶8. (C) Accepting the idea of a caretaker cabinet, Geagea reasoned that an Acting Cabinet is preferable to a Cabinet in which the opposition holds key ministries. Moreover, he explained, it would give March 14 breathing space becuse it would still control the ministries it hastoday, led by a favorable PM. ¶9. (C) Within a few days, Geagea predicted, we will know whether a Cabinet will be formed. He conjectured that Qatari PM and FM Hamad bin Jassem and Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa may need to intervene again. ¶10. (C) Geagea also questioned the assumption that Parliament would begin to convene regularly now that a President is elected. He said it is likely Berri will convene Parliament for when it is personally advantageous, such as to approve a new electoral law. MARCH 14 SHOULD NOT CEDE DEFENSE AND INTERIOR MINISTRIES -------------- ¶11. (C) Acknowledging that March 14 is still discussing which ministries it is not willing to cede, Geagea insisted that March 14 should keep either Defense or Interior Ministries. Assuming President Sleiman appoints either the Interior or Defense Minister (but not both),Geagea expects that March 14 will appoint the other, as well as the Finance Minister. Of the Education, Public Works, and Health Ministries, Geagea believes the opposition will appoint one of these ministers, and the majority will appoint the other two. NO MORE INDEPENDENT MINISTERS -------------- ¶12. (C) Geagea was adamant that March 14 appoint members of the coalition, instead of independent figures, as ministers of key posts. In particular, he said, it is time for a change in the Defense Ministry. He said that neither the Defense nor Justice Ministers should be independent. "We need fighters in major Cabinet positions, and independents in minor positions," he strategized. THOUGHTS ON NEXT LAF COMMANDER -------------- ¶13. (C) In a short follow-on one-on-one session with the Charge at his request, Geagea volunteered several names for the next LAF Commander. Noting that LAF Acting Commander MG Shawki al-Masri, a Druze, is "not fit for the job to continue even as Acting," he described LAF G-2 (military intelligence) BG Georges Khoury, a Maronite, as best-suited for the position. Admitting that Saad is "very opposed" to Khoury, Geagea said, "At least we know him and know what we are getting." Regarding two prospective candidates for LAF Commander, Second Brigade Commander, BG Jean Kawaji and the Commander of the Tenth Brigade, BG Charles Chikhani, Geagea said they are "OK, but we don't know them very well." Geagea rejected Commander South of the Litani BG Boulos Mattar, saying he is "too close to (Free Patriotic Movement leader) Michel Aoun." ¶14. (C) Geagea forcefully rejected Mount Lebanon LAF G-2 Commander BG Joseph Njeim as the next LAF G-2 Commander, saying that he is too close to the Syrians via the magnate of the pro-Syria al-Diyar newspaper, Charles Ayoub. CONCERN THAT PRESIDENT'S REPUBLICAN GUARD IS "INFILTRATED" -------------- BEIRUT 00000790 003 OF 003 ¶15. (C) Noting that the Republican Guards at Baabda Palace (presidential palace) are the same that worked under Syrian-allied former President Emile Lahoud, Geagea warned that the Republican Guards are infiltrated with Syrian loyalists. BERRI'S STAFF "MESSED UP" PROTOCOL FOR SLEIMAN RECEPTION -------------- ¶16. (C) Geagea clarified to the Charge that both he and Social Affairs Minister and former First Lady Nayla Mouawad abruptly left the gala dinner in honor of Sleiman's election on May 25 because they were not seated at the head table, as protocol should have dictated. Geagea said he was insulted that Marada leader Suleiman Franjieh (who like Geagea is not an MP) was seated at the head table, and attributed the "inappropriate" seating arrangements to opposition stalwart and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who is "acting like a victor after Doha." ¶17. (C) Geagea told the Charge, who was seated by Berri's protocol team at a table with LAF G-2 Director General Georges Khoury, Internal Security Forces (ISF) Director General Ashraf Rifi, Surete Generale Director General BG Wafiq Jezzine, and State Security Director General BG Elias Ka'ikati, that she was intentionally put there as part of the "intelligence community's table." (Comment: State Security is technically "disbanded" but still has some manpower and reports through Surete Generale. The Charge suspects she was seated at this table because Khoury and Jezzine are eyeing LAF positions and wanted to make their appeals to her. Although the LAF commander position historically is reserved for Maronites, Shia Jezzine served as Michel Sleiman's aide for six years. Meanwhile, Khoury views himself as a front runner for LAF Commander. End comment.) SISON