LEBANON: TRIPOLI MP WANTS CABINET POST AND SAYS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000788

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/28/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SY LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: TRIPOLI MP WANTS CABINET POST AND SAYS
USG ASSISTANCE WILL GO FAR IN THE NORTH

Classified By: CDA Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Stopping by for a chat with the Charge minutes before
his formal meeting with President Sleiman to cast his vote
for Prime Minister, pro-March 14 independent Member of
Parliament Mosbah Ahdab told the Charge that he wanted to be
seriously considered for a cabinet seat in the new
government, in light of the "heavy lifting" he has been doing
for Saad Hariri among the Sunnis of Tripoli. He said
Minister of Transportation Mohamed Safadi, also from Tripoli,
had done little to contribute to either March 14 unity or the
plight of the people of Tripoli and the north and did not
deserve to be chosen again.


2. (C) Turning to economic issues, he urged the Charge to
consider additional USG assistance programs to the north.
Ahdab is particularly enthusiastic about opening the Kleyate
airport for civilian traffic, saying the job creation will do
much to defeat extremism in the region. End Summary.

Reassured by Siniora's Reappointment
--------------


3. (C) Ahdab began by saying that he was pleased with the
March 14 decision to keep Fouad Siniora in place as Prime
Minister. "People are reassured by Siniora, especially at
the grassroots level. He has done extremely well under very
difficult circumstances." He hopes that Saad Hariri will
spend more time in Lebanon to build up a strong political
base in advance of the Spring 2009 parliamentary elections.
He noted that he was enroute to Baabda Palace to see
President Sleiman to voice his choice of Siniora as PM (Ahdab
had the next-to-last appointment of the day).


4. (C) Ahdab emphasized how difficult the recent violence had
been in Tripoli and said it was truly a blow to the pride of
the northern Sunnis. "The Hariri machine fell apart on the
ground and people began to lose faith in the ability of
moderates to protect them." Ahdab said he had expended a
great deal of personal and political capital in recent weeks
to bolster the image of the Hariris in Tripoli.

Time for a Cabinet Seat....or Else
--------------


5. (C) Ahdab was clearly making a case for why he should be
chosen to participate in the new cabinet, saying Saad Hariri
had already made him a promise. Ahdab said that he has
consistently supported March 14 positions. He was the only
Sunni outside of the Hariris to join March 14 leaders at the
2005 Bristol Hotel conference which called for Syria's
withdrawal from Lebanon. He received a number of threats
after his participation in this event. He said that he came
out very early last year in support of the Lebanese Armed
Forces 2007 armed conflict with militants in the Nahr
al-Barid (NAB) refugee camp. He helped keep the calm in the
tense region and helped to prevent the spread of extremism in
the north. Most recently, he received praise for his
leadership in the north when Sunni forces failed to defeat
extremist fighters from the opposition. Ahdab stepped into a
leadership position when Samir Jisr, a Future MP, closed the
party's offices in Tripoli. Ahdab gathered leading Tripoli
figures together to discuss how to move forward in a positive
manner.


6. (C) Ahdab contrasts his own performance with that of local
Tripoli rival, Minister of Public Works and Transport
Mohammed Safadi. He said Safadi, who returned to Lebanon in
the 1990's and only entered politics in 2000, "paid for his
seat" through campaign contributions and support from the
Saudis. Ahdab said Safadi conveniently seems to leave town
when times are tough, having been abroad during the Nahr
al-Barid conflict and having flown straight to Doha from
London during the recent clashes. According to Ahdab, Safadi
is not a March 14 team player and has often, in the past
year, come up with proposals which would weaken the
coalition's political position.


7. (C) Ahdab told us, "I know there are those who are trying
to block me, but I have put myself out on a limb quite

BEIRUT 00000788 002 OF 002


frequently for the sake of March 14. If they do not ask me
to participate in this government, I will have to leave March
14 because the relationship has stopped working."

Need for Greater Engagement in the North;
Kleyate Airport
--------------


8. (C) Ahdab believes that March 14 must pay some attention
to the north before it begins to lose support in the region.
"In the next election, March 14 could either win 7 of 8
parliamentary seats or 1 of 8 -- it's that close."


9. (C) He is concerned that Hizballah SYG is trying to reach
out to the "poor" of the north, particularly in the Akkar
region. He urged the Charge to explore programs which would
undercut Hizballah's outreach initiative. He is particularly
in favor of opening the Kleyate Airport to civilian traffic
in the north. The project will create jobs and more economic
opportunities for the largely agricultural region, Mosbah
said. He agrees that it will be important to smoothly
introduce this idea, emphasizing the civilian nature of the
program. "Then let Hizballah come out, object, and explain
to the people why they shouldn't have this tremendous
economic asset in their own back yard." Such USG assistance
will go a long way in the north, according to Ahdab.

Hizballah on the Defensive,
but March 14 Must Adopt a Unified Approach
--------------


10. (C) Ahdab believes that Hizballah is now in a much weaker
position after Doha. "They tipped their hand, and now they
must be on guard against Lebanese enemies, as well as
Israel." Ahdab said that March 14 should push very strongly
for full implementation of the Doha provisions now, "while
the memory of the Arab states is fresh." Hizballah should
not be allowed to derail the national unity government with
extraneous demands. "We must support President Sleiman as he
works to comply with the agreement."


11. (C) However, Ahdab said that all of this would require a
unified approach by March 14. "Together, we can start to
make them more uncomfortable." He is confident that PM
Siniora will be able to assemble a good team to move forward
on key issues.


12. (C) Ahdab ended by saying that March 14 should also not
be afraid to reach out to key independent or opposition
figures. "We can stretch out our hand in welcome, but there
must be some ground rules. They can join us if they are
willing to meet certain minimal conditions for cooperation --
but we cannot allow ourselves to be used by those who are
'fair weather friends.'"


13. (C) He would really like to "smoothly" press former PM
Najib Mikati to define his position. "If we can convince him
to come to us, along with all of his money, great. But if
not, we should bring this to the fore and show how his
actions in support of Syria will harm his own significant
financial investments in he region."

Comment
--------------


14. (C) Ahdab, who has impressed a number of March 14 figures
with his performance in the north, is using a full-court
press lobbying technique to obtain a cabinet seat. We only
hope that he does not back himself into a corner with this
talk of resigning from March 14 if his wishes are not met.
End Comment.

SISON