LEBANON: CODEL RAHALL: URGING SINIORA TO STAY ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000762

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA, H/FO
IO FOR A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/GARVITO/YERGER
USUN FOR KHALILIZAD/WOLFF/KUMAR/PHEE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/25/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR LE IS IR
SUBJECT: LEBANON: CODEL RAHALL: URGING SINIORA TO STAY ON
AS PRIME MINISTER


Classified By: CDA MICHELE J. SISON FOR REASONS 1.4
(B) AND (D).

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) In a May 25 meeting with CODEL Rahall, PM Siniora
defended March 14's acceptance of the Doha Agreement.
Siniora said the USG can do more to help Lebanon and urged
the USG to persuade Israel to relinquish control of Sheba'a
Farms. Representatives Ray Lahood and Darrell Issa praised
Siniora's performance as prime minister and urged him to stay
on in the new government. Siniora responded that while he
preferred not to be PM again for another year before the 2009
elections, he would do so if asked and noted that the March
14 bloc must decide on this. End Summary.


2. (C) CODEL Rahall, accompanied by Charge and DCM, met with
Prime Minister Fouad Siniora in his office on the morning of
May 25. Siniora's aides Mohamed Chatah and Roula Nourredine
also attended. The CODEL consisted of three members of
Congress of Lebanese descent: Nick Rahall (D-WV),Darrell
Issa (R-CA) and Ray Lahood (D-IL),as well as Charlie
Melancon (D-LA),John Linder (R-GA) and Jack Kingston (R-GA).
Later that day, the CODEL attended the Parliamentary session
at which Michel Sleiman was elected and sworn in as Lebanon's
new president, an action which immediately prompts a process
to select a new prime minister and cabinet. Siniora and his
cabinet are considered formally resigned, but remain in
caretaker status until the new cabinet is agreed.

WHY WE ACCEPTED THE DOHA AGREEMENT
--------------


3. (C) Siniora began by explaining, perhaps somewhat
defensively, why his government and the March 14 coalition
had accepted the recent Doha Agreement that ended the recent
Lebanese political crisis. Political actors in Lebanon had
reached a stalemate and needed to find a way out, he argued.
He added that the current post-Doha situation is
"extraordinary and temporary," with "temporary" an apparent
reference to that fact that new parliamentary elections will
be held in spring 2009. He implied that the absence of more
robust international community support was a factor in March
14's deciding to agree, as well. "We had lots of letters of
support (for March 14 and the GOL) but when we tried to cash
them, they bounced" he said.

SOME IN CODEL URGE SINIORA
TO STAY ON AS PRIME MINISTER
--------------


4. Representatives Lahood and Issa both praised Siniora for
his three years of service as prime minister and strongly
urged him to stay on in the new government. Siniora was
circumspect in response, saying he preferred not to be prime
minister again but if he is asked, "I will do it." He noted
that the March 14 majority bloc to which he belongs had to
discuss this and decide who would be its designee for prime
minister. CODEL members saw Siniora later that day at the
presidential ceremony and repeated their strong desire to see
him stay on.

THE BEST WAY FOR THE U.S. TO HELP?
PROGRESS ON SHEBA'A
--------------


5. Lebanon suffers, Siniora told the CODEL, because it is a
battleground for regional conflicts. The Lebanese government
needs help from the international community. The USG can be
part of that, but "sending the USS Cole is not the way to
help". The best gift the U.S. could give is securing the
release of Sheba'a Farms from Israeli control. While Siniora
believes Sheba'a should be returned to Lebanon, he advocates
that as a first step it be turned over to UN control. The
regular messages of support for his government do not help,
he said, and are at times a liability. Action on Sheba'a
would be a concrete expression of support. He said he had
raised this with Secretary Rice several times and urged the
Members to carry back that strong message to Washington.
Relating this issue to the 2009 elections, he said that the
Lebanese people are looking for tangible actions in the

BEIRUT 00000762 002 OF 002


coming year before elections, not just the commencement of
dialogue.

COMMENT
--------------


6. Siniora was not at all reflective or wistful and did not
convey the impression of someone who is in his last days of a
difficult three year stint as PM. On the contrary, he pushed
the Sheba'a Farms issue with the CODEL as he consistently has
in the past with other high level USG visitors. He seemed to
emphasize more than on other occasions that the many USG
expressions of support for Lebanon and for his government
were no longer sufficient without more tangible signs of
support such as action on Sheba'a. Siniora and his cabinet
are considered automatically resigned but continue in place
in a caretaker status until a new cabinet is formed. The
March 14 majority should be able to pick the Sunni it wants
to be PM, and it will almost certainly be either majority
leader Saad Hariri if he wants the job, or Siniora if Hariri
does not. End comment.


7. (U) CODEL Rahall departed Beirut before this message was
sent.

SISON