LEBANON: GEAGEA HOPES SINIORA, AND NOT SAAD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000759

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/KUMAR/PHEE
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC SA IR SY LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: GEAGEA HOPES SINIORA, AND NOT SAAD
HARIRI, IS NEW PM

REF: BEIRUT 733

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea believes that
current PM Fouad Siniora should stay on as the new PM when
the government is formed following the election of a new
Lebanese president on May 25. Majority leader and PM
front-runner candidate Saad Hariri, he argued, would be more
valuable campaigning on the ground in preparation for the end
of spring 2009 parliamentary elections. Geagea underscored
March 14's biggest success out of the Doha negotiations --
the omission of the word "resistance" in reference to
Hizballah, which he noted is the first Arab statement to not
include this term.


2. (C) Geagea is concerned about electing Lebanese Armed
Forces Commander Michel Sleiman without first amending the
constitution. He disapproves of Syrian FM Walid Moallem
attending Sleiman's swearing-in ceremony and hopes the U.S.
can work to counter-balance this optic. Geagea is also
worried about Sleiman selecting a "neutral" Interior
Minister, which he believes would lead to a passive Interior
Ministry at a time when major decisions need to be made. End
summary.

SINIORA SHOULD
STAY ON AS PM
--------------


3. (C) The Charge, accompanied by PolOff, met with Lebanese
Forces leader Samir Geagea, and his advisors Elie Khoury and
Joseph Tohme, at his residence in Maarab on May 24. Always
thinking tactically, Geagea expressed his opinion that
current Prime Minister Fouad Siniora should stay on as PM
until parliamentary elections are held at the end of spring

2009.


4. (C) Geagea argued that majority leader Saad Hariri, who
has been considered the front-runner for the position,
instead focus his efforts on campaigning for his Future
Movement party to win parliamentary seats in 2009. Moreover,
he reasoned, the current perception is that Siniora has been
defeated, especially after rescinding the two controversial
Cabinet decisions on transferring the head of airport
security and declaring Hizballah's fiber optics network
illegal. It would be better if he stayed on, Geagea
explained, and finished his tenure in a stronger position.


5. (C) Geagea added that the next ten months will require
difficult decisions, particularly financial decisions, and it
will be better if Siniora weathers through these battles,
since he has proven himself to be financially conservative.
In the meantime, Geagea said, Saad can be out campaigning, at
which Siniora would not be as effective, and keeping his
reputation intact. He told us that former PM Najib Mikati
and Transport Minister Mohammed Safadi are no longer in the
running to become the new PM.


6. (C) Geagea told us that Saudi Arabia does not want Saad to
be the next PM. He also added that Saad's father, former PM
Rafiq Hariri, spent ten years doing campaigning legwork
before becoming the PM. March 14 is not unified in its
position on the next PM, he claimed.
(Comment: We understand Geagea's logic about the value of
Siniora staying on, however, we question whether Saad would
step up to a serious campaigning role, or if he would view
this as a lost opportunity to be PM and choose instead to
spend his time in Saudi Arabia. End comment.)

SUCCESS OF DOHA IS
OMISSION OF "RESISTANCE"
--------------


7. (C) Geagea proudly told us that the Arab League statement
resulting from the Doha negotiations (reftel) is the first
Arab statement that does not mention "resistance" related to

BEIRUT 00000759 002 OF 003


Hizballah, and instead uses the term "military organization."
He noted that this was a significant omission, and believes
it to be March 14's greatest victory out of Doha. Noting the
longer-term implications of this omission, he expected many
battles to come, highlighting in particular the ministerial
statement the new Cabinet will issue. He said the last
ministerial statement in 2005 used the word "resistance."

IMPORTANT FOR NEW GOVERNMENT
TO IMPLEMENT DOHA AGREEMENT
--------------


8. (C) The Charge told Geagea that it was important that
Lebanon's political leadership
implement the Doha agreement in its entirety, in accordance
with the Arab League initiative and in conformity with the
relevant UNSCRs. Charge noted that the Doha Agreement called
for dialogue on ways to reinforce the state's authority on
all of its territory and its relations with the various
parties in such a way as to guarantee state sovereignty. The
dialogue would take place under the chairmanship of the
president once a national unity cabinet had been named and in
partnership with the Arab League, Doha
participants had agreed.


9. (C) Geagea agreed with the Charge, and said that he hoped
the new ministerial statement will elaborate on how state
institutions will be strengthened. He added that in the next
day's (May 25) parliamentary session, the MPs would begin
discussing the districting portion of electoral law.

SLEIMAN SHOULD NOT
CHOOSE INTERIOR MINISTER
--------------


10. (C) Underscoring the importance of the Interior Ministry,
Geagea said he does not believe Sleiman should choose its
minister. "It'll be another Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF)," he
complained, meaning that Sleiman will choose someone neutral,
and the Interior Ministry will be in observation-mode, rather
than actively taking decisions. He explained that the
president will negotiate with the PM which three cabinet
positions he will fill.


11. (C) Geagea anticipates that the PM will be decided by
Wednesday, May 28 and, best case, it will take one to two
weeks to fill the Cabinet positions. However, he said, he is
not optimistic that the ministerial posts will be easily
resolved.


12. (C) The worst case scenario, he said, would be that no
new Cabinet is formed. Once a president is elected, Geagea
explained, all of the current ministers are considered
resigned but continue in their positions as a caretaker
government until a new Cabinet is formed. That includes the
six ministers who resigned in 2006. With no agreement on a
new cabinet, the current cabinet would serve as a caretaker
government until the parliamentary elections.

NO DECISION YET ON HOW TO
RAISE AMENDMENT CONCERN
--------------


13. (C) To record his call for a constitutional amendment to
elect LAF Commander Michel Sleiman as president, Geagea
explained that he signed the Doha agreement "with
reservation" as a matter of principle. He explained that the
president must start his trm with complete legitimacy.


14. (C) He said tha his five MPs will attend the
parliamentary session tomorrow (May 25) to elect a president,
but will refrain from voting. Noting that March 14 key
figure Boutros Harb will also abstain from voting, Geagea
said that other March 14 MPs had not yet decided whether they
would raise this issue before or during the session. He
added that he has not heard of any March 8 MPs calling for an
amendment. (Comment. Geagea's comments may be colored by
his personal reservations about March 14's agreeing to the
election of Sleiman and the traditional antipathy his group,
the Lebanese Forces, has toward the Lebanese Armed Forces
dating from the civil war. End comment)

BEIRUT 00000759 003 OF 003



SYRIAN FM ATTENDANCE
IS PROBLEMATIC
--------------


15. (C) Having heard that the Iranian and Syrian FMs plan to
attend the swearing-in ceremony for president-designate
Sleiman tomorrow, Geagea implored the Charge for a
counter-balance to Syrian FM Walid Moallem's presence. He
suggested that either the Arab League try to discourage
Moallem from attending, or alternatively, he wondered if
Secretary Rice or NEA Deputy Assistant Secretary Welch could
attend.


16. (C) Advisor Elie Khoury told us Egypt's FM would attend,
and Jordan and Saudi Arabia's FMs were likely to come.
Geagea said he may try to encourage his March 14 counterparts
to boycott the ceremony if Moallem comes without a
counter-balance. The French, Italian, and Spanish FM's do
not constitute a counter-balance, according to Geagea.
(Note: Subsequent meetings with Defense Minister/Deputy
Prime Minister Elias Murr and Future Movement leader Saad
Hariri are covered septel. End note.)
SISON