LEBANON: FORMER PM MIKATI EXPECTS CONTINUED STATUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BEIRUT 000732 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/KUMAR/PHEE NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/19/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR EAIR SA IR LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: FORMER PM MIKATI EXPECTS CONTINUED STATUS QUO; CONCERNED ABOUT SUNNI EXTREMISM REF: A. BEIRUT 729 ¶B. BEIRUT 553 ¶C. BEIRUT 635 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Former Prime Minister and prominent Sunni businessman Najib Mikati reported to Charge May 19 evening that he heard Syrian President Bashar Assad had "ordered" Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to "finalize an agreement" in Doha. Mikati explained that the Qataris are feeling pressure to succeed at the negotiations and had asked Damascus to pressure Berri. Describing a civil-war era mentality, Mikati said that some Lebanese--including Sunnis--are turning to extremism and arming themselves because they felt the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) did not adequately protect them during the previous two weeks of clashes. Consequently, Mikati said, civil war will start up again "sooner or later," especially if no president is elected soon. ¶2. (C) Mikati prioritized electing a president before a government is formed, adding that he would not agree to serve as prime minister before a president is elected. (Note: Mikati's name has been raised in Doha by those who find Siniora and Saad Hariri unacceptable as PM but who see Mikati or fellow Tripoli native Minister of Transport Mohammed Safadi as more palatable choices. End Note.) Mikati believes LAF Commander Michel Sleiman is a "serious candidate until there is a presidential election." He advocated that the GOL and international community eliminate Hizballah's reasons for existence by resolving Shebaa Farms, prisoner exchanges with Israel, and the border with Syria. Mikati was enthusiastic about opening the Rene Mouawad/Kleyate airport in the north for commercial use. End summary. BASHAR ASSAD PRESSING BERRI TO "FINALIZE THIS" -------------- ¶3. (C) The Charge, accompanied by PolOff, met with former Prime Minister and prominent businessman Najib Mikati at his office at 1800 local time on May 19. Mikati reported that he heard from an unnamed contact in Doha that Syrian President Bashar Assad is forcing Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to "finalize an agreement" in Doha (Ref A). He explained that the Qataris, who are feeling pressure to succeed at leading the negotiations (and who want to demonstrate their capabilities to Saudi Arabia),had strongly urged Assad to allow the opposition to reach an agreement with the majority. According to Mikati, Assad ordered Berri to try and compromise by any means, presumably in an attempt to save face for the Qataris. However, Mikati continued, Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun is not accepting the proposals because he still wants to be the president and Berri is "very concerned" that he is unable to meet the Syrian request. ¶4. (C) Nevertheless, Mikati does not anticipate Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) Commander Michel Sleiman will be elected as the consensus president. He repeated what he said last month to the Charge (Ref B),"Sleiman is a serious candidate until there is a presidential election." Mikati said Sleiman does not have the support of anyone, not former president and Phalange (Kataeb) leader Amine Gemayel, nor Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, nor Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt. For this reason, he said, the negotiations in Doha will not succeed. CONCERNED ABOUT RISE OF SUNNI EXTREMISTS -------------- ¶5. (C) Mikati repeated his concern over Sunni extremism, which he had also voiced to the Charge in April (Ref B). He distinguished between two perspectives by which to understand extremism: fundamentalists who are driven by the desire to protect their local environment versus radical Islamists who BEIRUT 00000732 002 OF 004 are motivated by religion. ¶6. (C) Mikati is concerned about the spread of the former type of fundamentalism, explaining that the events of the previous two weeks (Ref C) have led civilians, particularly in his hometown of Tripoli, to take up arms to protect themselves. These civilians feel a need to protect their city, he continued, because they believe the LAF failed at doing this. ¶7. (C) Referring to the lead-up to the civil war in 1973, Mikati told us that when the Palestinians were fighting the LAF in Beirut, the LAF was unable to disarm them. Consequently, he said, the Lebanese took it upon themselves to arm themselves, and this was the beginning of the Lebanese mindset to "protect yourself because the army cannot." ¶8. (C) Mikati said that the clashes of the last two weeks have reinvigorated this mindset and therefore he believes that "civil war will come sooner or later." He added that the costs of weapons and ammunition have skyrocketed. "Every civilian is trying to protect his area," he said. He added that it is up to the Lebanese to determine how they will behave after Doha (Ref A). ¶9. (C) As for the second perspective on fundamentalists, Mikati speculated that 95 percent of Islamists are connected to Iran. After 9/11, he reasoned, Saudi Arabia, which previously funded Islamists, fell under the international microscope and had to halt its funding. However, he said, Iran pays indiscriminately to various Sunni extremist groups including Hamas, and will continue to do so. PRESIDENT MUST BE ELECTED PRIOR TO CABINET FORMATION -------------- ¶10. (C) Mikati believes it will be very dangerous for the Christians if a new cabinet is formed before a president is elected. A candidate for the prime ministerial post, Mikati said that while he aspires to become prime minister again, he will not agree to the post if the (Christian) president is not elected first. Dismissing the current proposals to divide up the cabinet among the majority, opposition, and president, Mikati said there cannot be a blocking minority. He suggested that a 20-minister cabinet would be sufficient, adding that he already has 20 solid neutral candidates in mind and would select them to serve as a team. LAF MUST BE SUPPORTED -------------- ¶11. (C) "The LAF is the backbone of Lebanon, and UNIFIL is equally important," Mikati stated. He continued, "Even if it didn't protect me (during the recent clashes),I still believe we should support it as an institution." He caveated his statement saying that the LAF should be supported incrementally, rather than unconditionally. TAKE AWAY HIZBALLAH'S REASONS FOR EXISTENCE -------------- ¶12. (C) "Can we disarm Hizballah?" Mikati asked rhetorically. He said that while he supports UNSC Resolutions 1559 and 1701 calling for Hizballah's disarmament, he wants to think realistically, and therefore proposes that the GOL and international community work to minimize the effect Hizballah has on Lebanon. He recommended that the UN take control of Shebaa Farms until the issue of ownership is resolved. Secondly, he stressed the need to resolve the issue of prisoner exchanges with Israel. Thirdly, Mikati proposed that progress be made along the Lebanese-Syrian border. ¶13. (C) Mikati argued that resolution of these three issues would take away Hizballah's rationale for possessing arms and its fiber optics network. At that point, he said, the GOL will have confronted and exposed Hizballah to its citizens and to the international community. He posited that it will be easier to disarm Hizballah once its reasons for existence BEIRUT 00000732 003 OF 004 are eliminated. HIZBALLAH BUILDING A STATE WITHIN A STATE -- INCLUDING A HIZBALLAH TRIBUNAL -------------- ¶14. (C) According to Mikati, Hizballah allowed former President Emile Lahoud to step down in November 2007 and permitted the Siniora government to remain in power because it is attempting to "shrink the legitimate government" while establishing its own state within a state. He provided an example where Hizballah is intervening in the drawing up of a reconstruction contract in Dahiyeh (southern suburbs of Beirut). The contract stipulates that Hizballah's own tribunal or judiciary court will arbitrate any dispute between contractor and subcontractor. ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT OPENING KLEYATE AIRPORT -------------- ¶15. (C) A businessman at heart and also a former Minister of Transportation and Public Works, Mikati is enthusiastic about opening up the Rene Mouawad/Kleyate airport to serve as Lebanon's second airport. He recounted a time when he was the Transportation and Public Works minister and urged former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri to forgo upgrades to the Beirut International Airport (BIA) and instead use the money to build up the airport in the north. ¶16. (C) Mikati said that Hariri vehemently opposed the idea of turning BIA over to development because he believed it would become another "Dahiyeh." According to Mikati, Hariri feared an influx of "ten million Shia" into the area where the airport now sits, which would put them in closer proximity to the Sunnis and Christians in Beirut. ¶17. (C) Mikati told the Charge that he had spent large amounts of money doing feasibility studies on the northern airport, and concluded that it is "very possible" to open the Kleyate airport for commercial use. He cautioned that this should be undertaken during a peaceful period so as not to be challenged by Hizballah. He added that the airport is very safe, noting that it is only closed on average three days per year due to weather restrictions. ¶18. (C) He envisioned a series of commercial warehouses sitting adjacent to the airport so it could be a hub for DHL, Federal Express, Amazon, and other companies doing business in Lebanon. He recommended that the U.S. "push from behind, rather than lead from the front," so that the project will not be immediately rejected as a U.S. military or other interest. He suggested the U.S. provide its assistance indirectly, perhaps through the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). STATUS QUO TO CONTINUE -------------- ¶19. (C) Mikati said he expects that the status quo of a presidential vacuum will continue, with the majority having lost ground from the Hizballah-led clashes. In the meantime, the citizens will continue to arm themselves. He added that when he went to predominately-Sunni Tripoli within the last few days, he sensed a loss of support for majority leader Saad Hariri. He said that the people he spoke with did not defend Saad as he anticipated they would, and that he thought there was now a "vacuum for Sunni leadership, no serious Sunni negotiator." As for himself, he said he prefers to play the role of "national figure," rather than identifying himself as a Sunni leader. ¶20. (C) If no president is elected, Mikati speculated, it means war. He predicted that the next goal of the opposition would be to change the Taif accord because "they will not give the presidency for free." If Taif is changed, he surmised, "The Sunnis will pay." ¶21. (U) BIOGRAPHIC DETAILS -------------- BEIRUT 00000732 004 OF 004 Najib Mikati, a Sunni Muslim, was appointed Prime Minister in April 2005, following Prime Minister Karami's failure to form a cabinet and former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri's assassination. Previously, he served as Minister of Transport and Public Works in the 2000 Hariri cabinet. In 2000, Mikati ran on a joint list with Christian Marada Forces leader Suleiman Franjieh Jr. and was elected from Tripoli with the highest number of votes in the district. Mikati is close to Syrian leaders, in particular to President Bashar al-Assad. Mikati's brother Taha runs the mobile telephone business in Syria in close cooperation with the Assad family. Mikati suspended his direct business activities in 1998 when he was appointed Minister. He owned two-thirds of Cellis, a mobile phone company that partnered with France Telecom and was awarded the contract to run one of Lebanon's two cellular networks from 1994-2004. Mikati also holds the contract for a Sudanese mobile phone company. Mikati was elected board member of the Beirut Chamber of Commerce, Industry, and Agriculture from 1992 to 2000, and a member of the Lebanese Economic Forum. He established an NGO in Tripoli that provides social services and medicine to the disadvantaged. In July 2007, Mikati bought the clothing brand Faconnable. Born on November 24, 1955, near Tripoli, Mikati is married with three children. He earned a bachelors and a masters degree in business at American University of Beirut, and in 1990 attended an executive program at Harvard. Mikati speaks Arabic and English. SISON