LEBANON: ECONOMY DEMONSTRATES RESILIENCE (ECONOMIC WEEK IN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000722 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR NEA/ELA STATE PASS USTR TREASURY FOR MNUGENT AND SBLEIWEISS USDOC FOR 4520/ITA/MAC/ONE NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/DEMOPOLOUS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN PREL PGOV LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: ECONOMY DEMONSTRATES RESILIENCE (ECONOMIC WEEK IN REVIEW, MAY 12 - 18, 2008) CONTENTS -------------- -- POLITICAL AGREEMENT TO HOLD NATIONAL DIALOGUE BOOSTS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY -- ECONOMY DEMONSTRATES RESILIENCE -- CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR STRESSES MARKET STABILITY; FINANCE MINISTER DISMISSES SAUDI DEPOSIT -- NEW EPCA BENCHMARKS NOT FINAL YET; IMF GIVES POSITIVE EVALUATION OF FORMER EPCA -- BALANCE OF PAYMENTS DEFICIT IN FIRST QUARTER 2008 -- PRESS REPORT ON SAUDI INVESTMENTS FLEEING LEBANON -- AGRICULTURE HIT BY CLOSURE OF MASNA BORDER CROSSING -- CONSUMER PRICES ROSE BY OVER THREE PERCENT FOR FIRST QUARTER 2008 -- MOODY'S MAINTAINS LEBANON'S CREDIT RATING DESPITE CURRENT CRISIS POLITICAL AGREEMENT TO HOLD NATIONAL DIALOGUE BOOSTS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY -------------- ¶1. (U) Following the endorsement of the Arab Ministerial Committee agreement by all political leaders on May 15, all roads that were blocked since May 7 immediately reopened, including the road leading to Beirut International Airport (BIA) and the Masna (Biqa') border crossing; national and international air carriers resumed operations; and business activity returned to normal in all regions, including those where violent clashes occurred. The Ministry of Economy and Trade and the Beirut Stock Exchange (BSE) were accessible to staff, who resumed work in their Beirut downtown offices. ¶2. (SBU) BSE trading substantially picked up on May 16, with total value of trading of approximately $22 million, "about ten times the average traded daily value before the outbreak of violence," BSE Chairman Fadi Khalaf told us. Prices of all Lebanese papers rose, reflecting investors' optimism. Trading in real estate company Solidere shares reached $19 million, accounting for 86 percent of total trading value, and closed at $28.75 per share. During the crisis, trading remained relatively normal, with no substantial drop in prices of Lebanese papers -- an indication that investors were holding on to these papers, and some even tried to increase their holdings, Khalaf said. ECONOMY DEMONSTRATES RESILIENCE -------------- ¶3. (U) In spite of the fighting that erupted in several regions on May 7-15, business activity continued, although at a slower pace, in areas that did not witness violence. The Central Bank of Lebanon's (CBL) branches and commercial banks remained operational, conducting all services. The volume of cash withdrawal from banks was normal, with small conversions from LL to USD deposits, and no capital outflows. Banks have ample liquidity in LL and USD, and there was "no panic" in the market, banking sources told us. ¶4. (SBU) The Beirut Port continued to operate and activity at the container terminal was more-or-less normal throughout the crisis period, contacts told us, refuting press reports that the port was closed. Although BIA remained officially open and opeational, there were no commercial flights until My 17. Private aircraft continued to fly in and ut of BIA, and some travel agents picked up on business opportunities, and advertised daily private Beirut-Amman flights, or vessels operating between Larnaca (Cyprus) and Jounieh (Port North of Beirut),while others advertised daily bus services to Damascus and Amman. As of May 21 all commercial service is expected to return to normal. Major carriers (Lufthansa, Air France, British Air, among others) have already returned to normal schedules, although passenger loads are below normal for this time of year. ¶5. (SBU) There was no fear of shortage of strategic reserves during the crisis. Wheat quantities at Beirut Port silos are sufficient to cover needs for five to six months, Advisor to the Minister of Economy and Trade told us on May 13. Fuel oil reserves for running national power utility EDL plants were sufficient for three weeks, and more fuel tankers were expected, Ministry of Energy sources told us. Quantities of gasoline and diesel were sufficient to cover BEIRUT 00000722 002 OF 003 market needs for 20 and 30 days respectively, a leading business source told us. CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR STRESSES MARKET STABILITY; FINANCE MINISTER DISMISSES SAUDI DEPOSIT -------------- ¶6. (U) CBL Governor Riad Salameh stated on May 15 that the most recent crisis did not lead to any pressure on the Lebanese currency. Dollarization of deposits remained stable at around 77.5 percent, while interest rates remained unchanged, he said. Salameh predicted that annual inflation may reach over ten percent due to international inflationary pressures. ¶7. (U) Meanwhile, the local press reported Finance Minister Jihad Azour's statements of May 13, asserting that liquidity in Lebanese pounds is available amounting to over $1.5 billion. Azour stated that this crisis will have a negative effect on investments, especially foreign investments. In addition, Azour noted that the promised Saudi $1 billion deposit at the CBL can no longer be expected, due to the deterioration of the situation in Lebanon. (Comment: CBL sources told us they never had any indication of such a deposit, officially or otherwise. End comment.) NEW EPCA BENCHMARKS NOT FINAL YET, IMF GIVES POSITIVE EVALUATION OF FORMER EPCA -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The IMF mission that arrived in Beirut on April 29 to discuss a new Emergency Post-Conflict Assistance (EPCA) program for Lebanon "was finally able to leave on May 14," IMF Resident Rep told us. The mission "started to discuss new benchmarks" with GOL officials, but did not get to finalize the discussion. The mission is willing to come back anytime, but it is not clear when such discussions can resume, he remarked. ¶9. (U) In the meantime, in the latest evaluation of Lebanon's performance under the former EPCA, the IMF noted that the primary balance and net debt targets for end-December 2007 were met with significant margins. This was mostly due to strong overall revenues, which counterbalanced losses from gas excise, expenditure savings, and lower than expected transfers to municipalities and the Electricity du Liban (EDL). Also, GOL net debt declined from 173 percent to 165 percent ofP1Q~P4Iand demand, deteriorating political and security situation, and increased inflation. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS DEFICIT IN FIRST QUARTER 2008 -------------- ¶10. (U) According to the Central Bank of Lebanon (CBL),Lebanon's cumulative balance of payments registered a $213.9 million deficit in the first quarter of 2008. This was attributed to a $497.4 million deficit in March 2008, which offset the cumulative surplus prevailing over the first two months of 2008. The 2008 first quarter deficit is more than two times that of the first quarter of 2007, mostly due to the expanding trade deficit. PRESS REPORT ON SAUDI INVESTMENTS FLEEING LEBANON -------------- ¶11. (U) On May 14, French language daily L'Orient le Jour quoted Saudi newspaper Al-Riyad as saying that the current crisis in Lebanon "affected" Saudi investments in Lebanon, estimated at around $4 billion. President of the Council of Lebanese-Saudi Businessmen was quoted as saying that some investments, mostly in the tourism sector, have been stopped, while he fears that Saudi investments will flee Lebanon. AGRICULTURE HIT BY CLOSURE OF MASNA BORDER CROSSING -------------- ¶12. (U) According to head of the Syndicate of Farmers of the Biqa' Ibrahim Tarchichi, the closure of the road leading to the Masna BEIRUT 00000722 003 OF 003 border crossing from May 8-15, resulted in around $3.5 million in losses for Biqa' farmers. Tarchichi noted that an average of 30 trucks with 850 tons of produce go through the Masna crossing each day, intended as exports to Syria and other regional and Gulf countries. Even though the road has already been cleared, it will take five additional days for trucks to come to Lebanon and be loaded with produce, which will result in even more losses to the local farmers, he said. CONSUMER PRICES ROSE BY OVER THREE PERCENT FOR FIRST QUARTER 2008 -------------- ¶13. (U) Reputed private consultancy firm Consultation and Research Institute (CRI) estimated that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.2 percent during the first quarter of 2008. According to CRI, this represents an 8.87 percent increase in consumer prices as compared to the first quarter of 2007. The current rise in prices was mostly attributed to the rise in the prices of personal care and other products, food, and housing prices in January 2008. MOODY'S MAINTAINS LEBANON'S CREDIT RATING DESPITE CURRENT CRISIS -------------- ¶14. (U) Moody's Investors Services stated on May 13 that Lebanon's foreign and local currency government bond ratings remained at B3 with a stable outlook despite the recent armed clashes. Moody's recognized Lebanon's resilience and the fact that it has never defaulted, although it noted that a downgrade may be necessary if default and loss to creditors is imminent. B3 is the lowest rating possible for governments that are not in default, or at imminent risk of default, and denotes a very poor creditworthiness and a high probability of government difficulties. SISON