LEBANON: GEMAYEL, DUBIOUS BUT READY, FOR DOHA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000700 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/KUMAR/PHEE NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR ASEC UNSC EAIR SA IR LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: GEMAYEL, DUBIOUS BUT READY, FOR DOHA Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Former President and Phalange leader Amine Gemayel declared on May 15 that Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun was obstructing the Arab League's efforts to put out a statement concluding its delegation's trip to Beirut, presumably because he still harbors presidential aspirations. The Arab League statement was acceptable to Gemayel, and his party issued its interpretation of the statement, emphasizing the need for confidence-building and stressing its two priorities to preserve Lebanese sovereignty and to extend the GOL's authority throughout the country. Gemayel said he is not confident about the Arab League-sponsored talks scheduled in Doha for May 16, but that he is ready to participate. He requested that the U.S. make a statement of support for the talks in Doha, noting that he is concerned about Qatar's friendly relationship with Syria. ¶2. (C) The USG's response to the recent escalation disappointed Gemayel, and he is looking to the U.S. to draw its red lines in Lebanon that it will defend at any cost, and communicate these red lines to the GOL, while directing them at Syria and Iran. "Hizballah plans to invest in its recent victory, and will not spend it on a compromise," Gemayel feared. He reported that he heard 50 Syrian dissidents in Lebanon were placed under house arrest by Hizballah and pro-Syrian SSNP, under the orders of the Syrian intelligence. End summary. AOUN OBSTRUCTING ARAB LEAGUE STATEMENT -------------- ¶3. (C) The Charge, accompanied by Defense Attache and PolOff, met with former President and Phalange leader Amine Gemayel, his son Samy, and Second Vice-President of Phalange Salim Sayegh at Amine's Beirut residence on May 15. Gemayel reported that Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun was trying to change the draft statement resulting from the Qatari-led Arab League delegation sent to calm Lebanon's current situation. Aoun, who still harbors presidential aspirations, was attempting to change the text on electing a president, Gemayel said. "It is clear that Aoun is trying to �A;obstruct the process," he sighed. Gemayel noted that the delegation's meeting with the opposition at the Phoenicia Hotel was lasting longer than expected, purportedly because of Aoun. ¶4. (C) During the meeting, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea called, and Gemayel relayed that Geagea accepted the proposed statement, adding that a key sentence had been changed since last night's version. The previous statement called on all parties to agree to not use weapons "to solve internal conflicts," and was amended to state "for political gains." HIZBALLAH'S WEAPONS NOT EXPLICITLY NAMED -------------- ¶5. (C) Gemayel expressed concern regarding the statement's sequencing because it called for a national unity government before a presidential election, which goes against the constitution. Recognizing the statement's value in reducing tensions, he said he is also worried that Hizballah's arms are not explicitly mentioned. He said he believes the election of a new president will not solve the problem as long as Hizballah possesses its weapons and can re-invade Beirut, the mountains, and the north. READY, BUT LACKING CONFIDENCE, FOR DOHA -------------- ¶6. (C) He is prepared to travel to Doha tomorrow (May 16) for the Arab-League sponsored talks with Lebanese political leaders, to be based on the National Dialogue model of 14 participants. He noted that Hizballah Secretary General BEIRUT 00000700 002 OF 003 Hassan Nasrallah would not attend, and could send Political Advisor Hussein Khalil. He agreed that involving moderate Shia in these talks is important, but should be considered at a later stage. He said he had low expectations for anything substantive coming out of the talks and is concerned about Qatar's ties to Syria and how that will play out. PHALANGE INTERPRETS ARAB LEAGUE STATEMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) In the meantime, he said, his Phalange party issued a statement offering its own interpretation of the Arab League draft statement. The Phalange remarks stress the importance of the Arab League statement's point on "rebuilding confidence among parties." Gemayel emphasized that this point was inserted before the appeals to form a government and agree on a new electoral law. For Gemayel, confidence-building is essential and Hizballah's arms and other hot issues can be addressed through such measures. The most important goals, according to Gemayel, are to preserve Lebanon's sovereignty and to extend the GOL's authority throughout the country. ¶8. (C) Gemayel expressed he and his party's willingness to participate in the next government, stressing the Phalange's commitment to Lebanon after losing two of its members (including his son Pierre) to the strife. USG NEEDS TO ESTABLISH ITS REDLINES -------------- ¶9. (C) The USG reaction to the situation in Lebanon was too lax, Gemayel said, and its statements were too weak. Before the talks commenced in Doha, he said he considered it essential to know the USG position and what the GOL could count on from the USG. He said he feared the opposition will impose additional conditions on the majority, saying "Hizballah is planning on going all the way. The signals are clear that Hizballah wants to invest in its victory and not spend it on a compromise." Gemayel said he needs to know what the U.S. is willing to allow. He asked that the U.S. issue a statement supporting the talks in Doha. ¶10. (C) "The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) do not need more arms!" he declared, "Instead, we need the U.S. to draw its red lines in Lebanon and make it clear to Iran and Syria that it is ready to preserve these red lines at any cost." An upset Gemayel argued that this clarification would have been useful prior to the recent escalation, but is necessary in case the violence resumes. "This is not a civil war," Gemayel clarified, "it is a war." ¶11. (C) Samy Gemayel interjected, warning, "The alternative for frustrated Sunnis is Al Qaeda. Fighters from Saad Hariri's Future Movement have threatened to turn to jihad (holy war) because they feel there is no other way." PROTECTION LEBANON'S SANCTUARIES -------------- ¶12. (C) The airport, port, and the Grand Serail (where the Prime Minister sits) are sanctuaries in Lebanon, Amine Gemayel said, and should be protected as such. He lamented that he does not see a LAF security presence anywhere, adding that Samy was at their Bikfaya residence earlier in the day and did not see any LAF troops, despite its proximity to pro-Syrian SSNP supporters. He added that he did not know if the GOL could resist another attack because Hizballah is led by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). SYRIAN DISSIDENTS REPORTEDLY NABBED BY MUKHABARAT -------------- ¶13. (C) Gemayel shared with us that he heard 50 Syrian dissidents (who had signed the Damascus Declaration),living in West Beirut, were arrested at their homes by Hizballah and the SSNP, under the orders of the Syrian mukhabarat (intelligence),and transferred to Damascus. BEIRUT 00000700 003 OF 003 SISON