LEBANON: JUMBLATT WANTS TO BE READY FOR THE "NEXT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000698 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/KUMAR/PHEE NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR ASEC UNSC EAIR SA IR LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: JUMBLATT WANTS TO BE READY FOR THE "NEXT ROUND" REF: A. BEIRUT 677 ¶B. BEIRUT 618 ¶C. BEIRUT 690 ¶D. BEIRUT 688 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) March 14/Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) leader Walid Jumblatt told us on May 15 that he wants to prepare his Druze PSP fighters by secretly supplying them with weapons, in order to be ready for the "next round" of fighting with Hizballah. He originally planned to delay going to Doha by three or four days for the Arab League-hosted round of talks (scheduled for May 16) with Lebanon's political leaders so that he could visit his Druze constituents in the north (19 of whom were killed in the clashes with Hizballah) and make a quick stop to see his friends in Saudi Arabia and Egypt. However, Jumblatt later called Charge to report that he had received the Saudis' blessing to go to Doha and planned to depart the following day with Saad Hariri. ¶2. (C) Jumblatt is willing to accept a ten-ten-ten cabinet division, with March 14 leader Saad Hariri as the Prime Minister. The Minister of Finance is the most important post, followed by the Minister of Interior, according to Jumblatt, who expects that the majority will not be able to choose both the Finance and Defense Ministers. He suggested the U.S. could help by providing assistance to open up the Kleyate/Rene Mouawad airport in the north, though not immediately, and by urging Israeli leaders to refrain from public statements of support for the GOL. End summary. ARAB LEAGUE DELEGATION MAKING ITS ROUNDS -------------- ¶3. (C) The Charge, accompanied by Defense Attache and PolOff, met with March 14/Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) leader Walid Jumblatt and Druze Minister of Information and MP Ghazi Aridi at Jumblatt's well-fortified Clemenceau residence at 1400 local time on May 15. Jumblatt, who was better-rested and in stronger form than when we last saw him on May 12 (Ref A),said he would be leaving Clemenceau for the first time in days for a one-on-one meeting with Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Hamad bin Jassim, who is heading the Arab 
League's delegation to Beirut. Jumblatt noted that Jassim had met with Hizballah Deputy Secretary General Naim Qassem earlier in the day, followed by a meeting with Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. ¶4. (C) Jumblatt told us that last night (May 14) he was prepared to rescind the Cabinet's May 5 controversial decisions to transfer the head of airport security and declare Hizballah's fiber optics network illegal (Ref B),but March 14/Future Movement leader Saad Hariri wanted to delay revocation until today. Wissam Hassan, from the Internal Security Forces' information (intelligence) bureau, passed on a message from Wafiq Safa, Hizballah's liaison with the GOL, that if the decisions were not revoked that night (May 14), it would appear to Hizballah that the Cabinet changed its mind. (Note: Ultimately, the Cabinet did rescind the decisions as expected, Ref C. End note.) ¶5. (C) The statement would call for a National Dialogue to agree on a new electoral law and on a national unity cabinet, Jumblatt said. It also contains a sentence that all parties agree "not to use weapons to solve internal conflicts." (Note: We heard this sentence has been a sticking point. The final statement reads, "All parties must promise to refrain from returning to arms or violence to achieve political ends." End note.) WILL DELAY GOING TO DOHA -------------- ¶6. (C) Aware that the Arab League delegation is planning to BEIRUT 00000698 002 OF 003 host a round of talks in Doha tomorrow (May 16),Jumblatt said that he will go, but not until Monday or Tuesday (May 19, 20) because he first needed to go see his constituency in the Chouf, and then he wanted to see his allies in Saudi Arabia and Egypt. He added that his interlocutors in Saudi Arabia feel frustrated and isolated. He said in the meantime, he would send Telecommunications Minister Marwan Hamadeh to represent him. (Note: In a subsequent meeting, septel, Future Movement leader Saad Hariri assured the Charge that he would get Walid on board, literally and figuratively. End note.) ¶7. (C) At 2230 Walid Jumblatt telephoned Charge to say he had clearance to go to Doha from the Saudis. The Saudi relationship was very important, he said. King Abdullah had been a good friend of his father, Kamal Jumblatt. He had had telephone conversations since he last saw the Charge at 1400 with Prince Bandar and Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Khoja (still in Riyadh). Walid had asked to see King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, but Prince Bandar told him there was no need, he had the Saudis' blessing to go to Doha; "we want you to go to Doha." Prince Faisal told him in a separate conversation that, "We are with you. Go ahead, go to Qatar." Walid said he had only met the Arab League delegation head Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim (HbJ), whereas with the Saudis his family had a longstanding friendship. HbJ seemed friendly, Walid reported, but he had wanted to check with the Saudis first. He planned to go the next morning to the Chouf to tour villages affected by recent fighting there, with large press coverage, before departing for Doha at 1730 with Saad. NEED TO "COOL DOWN" HIS DRUZE FIGHTERS -------------- ¶8. (C) Jumblatt was anxious to see his fellow Druze, who lost 19 fighters during the clashes against Hizballah (and 50-60 Druze were wounded). Jumblatt said, "Everyone was mutilated. Girls, boys, and women took up knives because they had no weapons and were fighting rockets." He reported that their morale was good, but he has to go to "cool things down." He told us that four to five of his men who had been kidnapped were still held, but were expected to be released today. PREPARING FOR ROUND TWO -------------- ¶9. (C) "Looking ahead," he said, "we have to prepare for another round. We have to be covert about it and well-organized." He conceded that Hizballah won "the first round," adding that while hoping for a second round, his Druze supporters in the Chouf were afraid. He said he did not know yet how he will get the needed supplies, noting that Lebanese Forces MP Tony Zahra wants to work with Saad Hariri to see if the Saudis would be willing to supply weapons. ¶10. (C) Jumblatt said he does not want to provoke Hizballah, but stated that he and his PSP fighters need time to breathe and resupply. He suggested he needed land mines, but the Charge and Defense Attache strongly discouraged this idea. He said the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) needed a redeployment strategy, and even recommended conscription because the LAF needs to be everywhere but currently lacks the manpower. NEW CABINET FORMULATIONS -------------- ¶11. (C) Jumblatt said he will try to participate in the new Cabinet. A 10-10-10 division, with Saad as the Prime Minister, is acceptable, he said, as is a 13-7-10 division. He added that the opposition had used force to try and secure a blocking minority, so "Let's give them 11 seats and keep 16 or 17 for the majority" (meaning only one position will be chosen by the president). (Note: In the subsequent meeting with Saad Hariri, Saad's advisor and cousin Nader dismissed the possibility of 10-10-10, stating, "We will not give Berri this pleasure. End note.) FINANCE, INTERIOR MINISTRIES ARE KEY BEIRUT 00000698 003 OF 003 -------------- ¶12. (C) Noting that he had not yet heard the opposition's demands on specific posts, Jumblatt initially said, "The Ministry of Defense is not that important." (Note: Yesterday, May 14, we heard Defense Minister Elias Murr plead that the Defense Ministry is the most important post, Ref D. End note.) As for the Ministry of Interior, Jumblatt said, LAF Commander Sleiman can choose a candidate, adding that he did not have any idea who Sleiman would designate. Later in the meeting, he said that a strong individual should be chosen as the Interior Minister. ¶14. (C) Jumblatt reconsidered and agreed that the Defense Ministry is important, and said that its current minister, Elias Murr, should remain in this post. He reported that he had not heard who was being considered as the next LAF Commander, though he knew Georges Khoury, the Director General of the LAF G-2 (military intelligence) was "willing" to serve in this role. (Comment: We are well aware of Khoury's designs on becoming the next LAF Commander. End comment.) ¶15. (C) Minister Aridi chimed in to argue that the Ministry of Finance is very important, from the perspective of the Prime Minister. Aridi supposed that the majority could not choose both the Finance and Defense Ministers, and that Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun would ask for the Finance post if the majority controlled the Defense Ministry. Aridi predicted that the next Foreign Minister would be a weak figure from the opposition, "another Salloukh" (current yet supposedly resigned FM). ¶16. (C) Jumblatt expressed his fear about a sectarian war erupting in Beirut, arguing for the government to be presided by a moderate Sunni -- Saad Hariri as the next prime minister -- so that "we don't have Zarqawis (leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq) in Beirut and Tripoli." USG SHOULD HELP OPEN UP NORTHERN AIRPORT -------------- ¶17. (C) Jumblatt supported opening up the Kleyate/Rene Mouawad airport in the north, suggesting that the U.S. could assist with technical improvements for cargo and passenger planes. He thought it was a good idea in case another escalation occurred which closed down Beirut International Airport (BIA). He cautioned that this idea not be pursued immediately because he did not wish to convey the message that the majority is "abandoning BIA." ¶18. (C) His final message to us was a strong plea to ensure no Israeli leaders make any statements of support for the GOL or the Arab League Foreign Ministers' initiative. SISON