LEBANON: GEAGEA DROPS BY AGAIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000669 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR A/S SILVERBERG AND PDAS WARLICK USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/KUMAR/PHEE NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR ASEC UNSC EAIR SA IR LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: GEAGEA DROPS BY AGAIN REF: A. BEIRUT 654 ¶B. BEIRUT 618 ¶C. BEIRUT 663 ¶D. BEIRUT 642 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, in a May 12 evening drop-by with Minister of Tourism Joseph Sarkis to the Embassy, said that Prime Minister Fouad Siniora was doing "excellently." He said that March 14 leaders Saad Hariri and Walid Jumblatt should stop pressuring Siniora to convene a Cabinet meeting aimed at considering withdrawal of its controversial decisions to transfer the head of airport security and declare Hizballah's fiber optics network illegal. Geagea said Siniora is resolute in upholding the Cabinet's decisions. Geagea suggested that the Cabinet's decisions be used as a bargaining chip in a National Dialogue to get a firm commitment from the opposition to withdraw from the streets and open the airport road. ¶2. (C) Geagea believes that the Qatari-led Arab League delegation can be most helpful if it arrives in Beirut on May 14 to propose a substantive program, rather than to be in listening-mode. Ultimately, a long-term strategy to defeating Hizballah is necessary, Geagea stated. He told us that he is working with Internal Security Forces (ISF) General Rifi (allied with Saad Hariri) on buying ammunitions for his militia and for Jumblatt's Progressive Socialist Party fighters. End summary. SINIORA DOING "EXCELLENTLY" -------------- ¶3. (C) Lebanese Forces (LF) leader Samir Geagea and Minister of Tourism and loyal LF member Joseph Sarkis stopped by the Embassy at 1800 on May 12 to report to the Charge, A/DCM, Defense Attache, and PolOff on his day of meetings with key political figures. Geagea declared at the outset that he had visited Prime Minister Fouad Siniora earlier in the day at 1500, and "Siniora is doing excellently," which we note is an improvement from the previous day (Ref A). Geagea explained that the PM is isolated from the outside world since he is holed up for security reasons at the Grand Serail. CABINET IS CONSIDERING WITHDRAWING ITS DECISIONS -------------- �0A; ¶4. (C) Geagea reported that he visited the PM to convince him to convene the Cabinet in order to discuss withdrawing its May 5 decisions to transfer the head of airport security and declare Hizballah's fiber optics network illegal (Ref B). Siniora rejected his appeal, Geagea relayed, and told him that the Cabinet cannot withdraw its decisions without a serious guarantee that the opposition will withdraw from the streets and the airport road. Geagea said that Siniora was threatening to resign precisely because he was opposed to withdrawing the Cabinet's decisions. Moreover, Geagea said, we as March 14 have already been humiliated enough. ¶5. (C) Concluding that Siniora would not budge, Geagea told us that we should urge March 14 leaders Saad Hariri and Walid Jumblatt to stop pushing Siniora. "The PM will not give anything for free," Geagea stated, himself agreeing with the PM. (Note: Jumblatt listed for us immediately before we saw Geagea the March 14 leaders who were now advocating the Cabinet withdraw its decisions, septel. End note.) ¶6. (C) Geagea told us he would support withdrawing the decisions if it meant it would resolve the situation. (Note: Unsurprisingly, Minister Sarkis said that if the Cabinet met, he would vote against withdrawing the decisions. Two Cabinet members had been out of the country for the last few days preventing the Cabinet from having a quorum, but Acting Foreign Minister Tareq Mitri returned today, May 12, while Minister of Displaced Nehme Tohme's plans were not known to the group. End note.) BEIRUT 00000669 002 OF 002 ¶7. (C) Geagea called at 2240 today to report that Saad was leaning on him to influence his members of the Cabinet (Minister Sarkis) to agree that the Cabinet should withdraw its decisions. Geagea said he would continue to work on Ghattas Khoury, senior advisor to Saad. He also noted that Saad will soon be holding a press conference (NFI). USING THE DECISIONS AS A BARGAINING CHIP -------------- ¶8. (C) Geagea wondered what the Arab League delegation, headed by Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Hamad bin Jassim, will bring when it is expected to arrive in Beirut on Wednesday, May 14. "What are they proposing?" he inquired, suggesting that March 14 use the possibility of withdrawing the Cabinet's decisions as a bargaining chip in the Arab League-sponsored talks or in the National Dialogue. ¶9. (C) Minister Sarkis proposed that March 14 work to return the situation to as it was before the Cabinet made its controversial decisions on May 5. He recommended that March 14 "trade" the withdrawal of its decisions in exchange for the opposition pulling off the streets and opening the airport road. Geagea noted that he believed Hizballah was not satisfied with how the situation was playing out, and that it feels obliged to act. No one knew whether the opposition was willing to go to a National Dialogue absent a withdrawal by the Cabinet of its decisions. NEED A LONG-TERM STRATEGY TO DEFEAT HIZBALLAH -------------- ¶10. (C) Geagea noted that the current situation is not terrible, but that March 14 needed something significant to "hold Hizballah back." He offered, "We could turn a defeat into a victory." He told the Charge that the focus needs to shift to a more long-term look at how to defeat Hizballah. ¶11. (C) Privately, Geagea followed up on his previous requests for ammunition for his LF fighters (Ref D),and informed the Charge that he had seen Internal Security Forces (ISF) Director General Ashraf Rifi earlier in the day. Geagea reported that he is working with Rifi on buying ammunition at list price from other countries for himself and Walid Jumblatt. (Comment: We visited Rifi at 1300 today, May 12, and then saw him later in the afternoon at his close friend Saad's residence, septel. It looks like Geagea is moving along with his preparations to arm his fighters. End comment.) COMMENT -------------- ¶12. (C) Geagea approached us to ask that we urge Saad and Jumblatt to ease their pressure on Siniora to agree to withdraw the Cabinet's decisions. While Siniora has been resolute in upholding the Cabinet's decisions, to the point of choosing to resign rather than concede on this issue, it is interesting to note that we were told by several interlocutors that Siniora had walked into the May 5 Cabinet meeting believing the head of airport security Wafiq Chucair should be investigated before a transfer decision was made. Always thinking strategically, Geagea appeared indifferent as to whether the Cabinet withdrew its decisions or not, and was more interested in moving beyond the "issue of the day" so that the bigger problems (Hizballah) can be tackled. ¶13. (C) We hear Saad Hariri and Geagea when they say that they do not want the Arab League delegation to be in "listening-mode" during their visit. We agree that the delegation can be most helpful if it brings a serious program to table. Geagea and Siniora have started thinking along these lines by suggesting that the Cabinet's decisions be discussed in a National Dialogue. To make this visit effective, we suggest the delegation draws up a firm program prior to its arrival. End comment. SISON