LEBANON: MAY 7 GENERAL STRIKE UPDATE - NO CLEAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 000615 SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER, STATE FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/FO:KHARRINGTON, MPOPAL E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/06/2018 TAGS: PGOV PINS PREL PTER EINV MCAP LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: MAY 7 GENERAL STRIKE UPDATE - NO CLEAR MANDATE Classified By: CDA Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) There have been calls for a general strike on May 7 for several weeks over concern about increasing prices. The cabinet, in a marathon ten-hour session, increased the minimum wage by 50 percent, and took other steps to combat the rising cost of living. Hizballah and Amal are expected to support the strike; while Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) talks about it, his supporters may not show up. The Internal Security Forces will be fully deployed, and there are rumors of closure of the airport road. Beirut International Airport employees will strike between 9 a.m. and 3 p.m. End summary. ¶2. (U) For several weeks different groups, most notably the pro-opposition General Labor Confederation (GLC),have been calling for a general strike on May 7 in support of an increase in the minimum monthly wage, which has been $200/month since 1996. In Lebanon as a whole there are very few people working for the minimum wage. About 40 percent of the population are non-wage earners, and civil servants and most private sector employees make more than this. However, as a benchmark for wage increases this official figure is important. Coupled with rapidly rising prices for basic commodities the call for an increased minimum wage has gained traction. One key indicator of the seriousness of the issue is that the cabinet approved, in a marathon ten-hour meeting concluding at 4:30 a.m. on May 6, a 50 percent increase in the minimum wage. A like amount - $133/month - will be added to civil service salaries, with pensions increasing by $66/month. ¶3. (U) Maroun Khawli, head of the pro-government, pro-March 14 National Salvation Committee of the General Labor Confederation (GLC) forecast an increase of 50 percent, of which about 25 percent was to be a transportation allowance, to reflect the rising oil prices. His committee, which comprises 17 of the 37 syndicates or unions forming the GLC, will not participate in any demonstrations on May 7. He believes that demonstrations will be limited to areas with Hizballah or Amal dominance. He believes further that while General Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) supports the concept of a strike "on paper," Khawli believes that very few of them will be "on the ground" on May 7. However, on Monday, May 5, after the weekly meeting of Aoun's FPM, a statement was issued calling firmly for support for the strike -- with the stated purpose of toppling the Siniora government, rather than in support of low wages. ¶4. (SBU) Charles Arbid, vice president of the Association of Lebanese Industrialists, told us that his organization is considering supporting the strike, but not directly aimed at increasing the minimum wage. Although not opposed to a minimum wage increase, even though it will cost their companies money, the Industrialists want to put pressure on the GOL to resolve the political crisis. Arbid stated that unless that happens, companies will not be able to afford higher wages under any circumstances. ¶5. (U) Members of the various economic sectors -- banking, trade and industries -- have told us that they will not support the strike. The educational sector has distanced itself from the May 7 strike, calling for their own demonstrations on May 14. ¶6. (U) Recent events in both Egypt and Syria, widely talked about in the press, have highlighted the regional problem with wages and rising prices. Egypt announced a 30 percent increase in wages for civil servants. Syria likewise announced a 25 percent increase for the same group. ¶7. (C) COMMENT: The Internal Security Forces (ISF) have told us that they intend to deploy all of their officers on May 7 around public buildings and other potential targets of strikers. Embassy personnel will limit their moves -- see EAC cable (septel). We have been told by March 14 SYG Fares Suaid that the airport road will be closed May 7. Beirut International Airport employees will strike between 9 a.m. and 3 p.m. tomorrow. END COMMENT. SISON