LEBANON: ARAB LEAGUE SYG: "BACK TO SQUARE ONE"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000601 SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER/GAVITO E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/01/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL SY LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: ARAB LEAGUE SYG: "BACK TO SQUARE ONE" Classified By: CDA Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa, in Beirut to attend the Arab Economic Forum, told the Charge on May 2 that although there is hope, "we are back to square one" on breaking the political impasse. In recapping his meetings with Lebanon's political leaders, Moussa noted that Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun is oversimplifying the prospects of reaching an agreement on electoral law, while Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri remains intransigent on seeing majority leader Saad Hariri and is focused only on renewing the National Dialogue. There is a "comfort" in the status quo for certain political leaders and for Syria, Moussa surmised. ¶2. (C) Meanwhile, the March 14 majority is gearing up to elect Lebanese Armed Forces Commander Michel Sleiman as president on May 13. They sent an emissary to Sleiman to urge him to accept an election by a simple majority if necessary. Independent Shia attorney Mohammed Mattar hopes that some Shia MPs will rally to vote on May 13. There is a concern that labor strikes planned for May 7 will become politicized and put Sleiman and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) in an uncomfortable position. Moussa intends to gather the Arab League Foreign Ministers in Cairo in June, and will likely make one more visit to Beirut before then in the event that Lebanon remains without a President. End summary. ¶3. (C) On May 2 the Charge, accompanied by PolOff, met Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa, in Beirut for the Arab Economic Forum, following his flurry of meetings with Lebanese Armed Forces Commander Michel Sleiman, Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader Michel Aoun, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri (whom he saw twice),PM Fouad Siniora, majority leader Saad Hariri, MP Michel Murr, and Defense Minister Elias Murr. Moussa departs Beirut May 3 and will travel to Washington on May 6 to attend an Arab-American Summit. AOUN OVERSIMPLIFYING THE ISSUE -------------- ¶4. (C) Moussa reported that Aoun continues to believe things are much simpler than they are, referring in particular to reaching agreement on a new electoral law. Aoun purportedly has dropped his demand for a return to the 1960 law and now believes that implementing the Boutros law, enacted by the parliamentary committees, will solve everything. Moussa added that Aoun is not totally comfortable with Sleiman as the consensus candidate, but continues to support him for the time being. ¶5. (C) Moussa dismissed Hizballah's announcement that Central Bank governor Riad Salameh was now its presidential candidate. He attributed the announcement to a strategy to create doubts that agreement on Sleiman is firm, suggesting that such a consensus can be shattered at any moment. According to Ghattas Khoury, MP and advisor to Saad Hariri, it is a maneuver to get more concessions out of Sleiman. GENERAL SLEIMAN -------------- ¶6. (C) Moussa's meeting with Sleiman was "excellent" according to Arab League representative to Lebanon Ambassador Abed al-Rahman Solh. Solh told us that Sleiman praised Syrian President Bashar Assad for his continuous support for his candidacy and for his willingness to accept Lebanese officers at the Syrian military academy. Sleiman also reportedly expressed his relief at Berri's position on the National Dialogue, calling him "serious." Further, according to Solh, Sleiman is willing to cooperate with Aoun, despite his declining popularity. BERRI HOLDING OUT FOR A DIALOGUE, PM AND SAAD SEE TRICKS UP HIS SLEEVE -------------- ¶7. (C) During his meeting with Berri, Moussa said they formulated a non-paper that included the following: 1) Referred to the Arab League initiative as the basis for all negotiations including the National Dialogue; 2) Confirmed consensus on electing Sleiman as the president; and 3) Noted BEIRUT 00000601 002 OF 003 emerging consensus on holding the National Dialogue in Parliament whereby there is a national unity government which has the acceptance of all parties and there is agreement on a new electoral law. The non-paper also states that if there is agreement on the national unity government and on the electoral law, then there will be a declaration of intention announced and the parties could move directly to the election. This could take place in just one day, Moussa argued. ¶8. (C) Moussa said he urged Berri to meet with Saad, noting that Berri asserted the Dialogue should be open to all 14 participants. Berri complained about the "slanderous" media campaign conducted by Saad's MPs against him. (Note: Berri's advisor Ali Hamden called us after the second Moussa-Berri meeting to inquire whether the Charge would urge Saad Hariri to drop his request for a one-on-one session with Berri. Charge declined to do so. End note.) ¶9. (C) Conveying the non-paper to Siniora and Saad, Moussa reported that they still believe there is a trick up Berri's sleeve and that they anticipate further conditions from Berri. COMFORT IN STATUS QUO -------------- ¶10. (C) Dismissing March 14's plan to elect a president with a simple majority, Moussa said the majority is not willing to bear the consequences of such an action and therefore will not go forward with it. "We are back to square one," sighed Moussa, adding that he does not see how he can close the gap in the near term. He said he believes all of the political leaders are comfortable with the status quo. "No victor, no vanquished," he continued. At this juncture, he said, no one is a loser and there is great fear that any action will result in someone losing. While there is no progress, Moussa surmised, the situation is "not hopeless" because everyone he spoke to is aware and concerned that the situation could easily get out of hand and threaten their, and Lebanon's security. ¶11. (C) Similarly, Syria prefers to keep the situation as it is today, Moussa speculated. He added that Syrian President Bashar Assad would not be received in Saudi Arabia until there is movement on the Lebanese political front. Moussa attributed the stalemate to a combination of outside influence preferring the status quo and internal reluctance to break out of it. ¶12. (C) The Arab League foreign ministers plan to meet again in June, Moussa reported, to follow up on Annapolis and to assess the status of the Lebanon file. In the meantime, he said, the Arab League countries will continue to stress that a president must be elected in Lebanon. He would plan another trip to Beirut before the Arab League Foreign Ministers Summit, should there still be no Lebanese President in June. MOMENTUM TOWARD A SIMPLE MAJORITY -------------- ¶13. (C) At a May 2 luncheon hosted by March 14 SYG Fares Souaid and attended by Archbishop Yussef Bichara, MP Samir Franjieh, and independent Shia attorney Mohammed Mattar, Mattar told the Charge that more needed to be done to rally Shia MPs to elect a president on May 13. Mattar suggested that the Shia might ask Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani to issue a religious edict ordering Shia MPs to attend the next parliamentary session and vote. ¶14. (C) Franjieh reported that he would see Sleiman after the lunch to urge him to accept a simple majority election. (Note: Franjieh told us after his session with Sleiman while the General remains firmly on board with remaining the consensus candidate, more work needs to be done to get him to accept a simple majority election. End note.) Transportation Minister Mohammed Safadi has now reportedly accepted the simple majority concept, which our contacts note is significant given his Tripoli base of support. ¶15. (C) March 14 intends to issue a statement the following day, relayed Souaid, that labels Berri's intransigence on meeting Saad and calling for a National Dialogue as a diversionary tactic from electing a president. A second statement will request parliamentary committees to stop meeting in the parliament building, noting that they are not a substitute for a real, functioning legislature. BEIRUT 00000601 003.2 OF 003 CONCERN OVER POLITICIZING THE MAY 7 LABOR STRIKES -------------- ¶16. (C) The luncheon attendees expressed their concern about the labor strikes planned for May 7. They said the workers are justified in their request for an increase in the minimum wage, but that they are worried that the strikes will be used by the opposition to draw Sleiman and the LAF to get involved, should the strikes turn violent. JUMBLATT WARNS HIZBALLAH IS MONITORING THE AIRPORT -------------- ¶17. (C) Jumblatt made a statement to the press late night on May 1, warning that Hizballah has cameras set up in the VIP lounge at Beirut International Airport and on the western runway. He telephoned the Charge May 1 evening, expressing frustration at Hizballah's "state within a state," noting the existence of the airport cameras, the fiber optic network, and Hizballah's recent 5-hour detention of a French Socialist MP who had tried to take photographs in Beirut's Hizballah-dominated Dahiyeh southern suburb. Jumblatt's information came from Defense Minister Elias Murr. (Comment: While the information seemed to have energized Jumblatt in feeling the urgency to elect a president, going public has its drawback in that it could make the GOL look ineffective at protecting the Lebanese from Hizballah. Moussa told us that the GOL would meet on May 5 to determine a response to the airport camera discovery. End comment.) SISON