LEBANON: ARMY COMMANDER WILL EXTEND IF ORDERED BY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000551

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPT PASS TO EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/GAVITO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2018
TAGS: MASS MCAP PTER PARM PINR KPAL SY AE IS LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: ARMY COMMANDER WILL EXTEND IF ORDERED BY
THE PARLIAMENT

BEIRUT 00000551 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: CDA Michele J. Sison for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In an April 18 meeting with NEA Assistant Secretary
David Welch, Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) Commander General
Michel Sleiman stressed he was intent on retiring by November
21, 2008. Sleiman said his announcement that he would leave
his post on August 21 was designed to put pressure on the
politicians to seek a solution and to quit shirking their
duties. In the end, however, Sleiman conceded that he would
accept an extension for "one or two months" if parliament
passed a law calling for his extension. Outside of
parliament, Sleiman did not believe anyone else has the
authority to extend his tenure as LAF Commander. End Summary.


2. (C) NEA A/S Welch, accompanied by Charge, DATT, and
Pol/Econ Chief, met with LAF Commander Michel Sleiman at his
office in Yarze on April 18. Sleiman opened his remarks by
recalling all of the great tragedies that have struck the
United States in Lebanon: the bombing of the U.S. Embassy on
April 18, 1983, the bombing of the Marine Barracks in October
1983, and the bombing of the U.S. Embassy Annex in September

1984. Sleiman noted that these were great sacrifices made by
Americans for the cause of supporting democracy in Lebanon.
For these many sacrifices, Sleiman offered his thanks, and
his condolences.

THANKS FOR YOUR STRONG SUPPORT
I KNOW YOUR PROGRAM TO SUPPORT LEBANON IS STRONG
-------------- ---


3. (C) A/S Welch strongly reaffirmed USG support for the
Lebanese Army as the only remaining state institution that is
functioning properly. He assured Sleiman that U.S. support
is bipartisan, stressing, "it does not matter who the next
President (of the USA) is, our support for Lebanon will not
change." He said Iran and Syria continue to interfere in
Lebanon, but that the Arab League summit was an "embarrassing
failure" for the latter. The U.S. would continue, both
publicly and privately , to push for the election of the
president. Although he understood the pressures Sleiman was
under, he advised him to be patient.


4. (C) Sleiman thanked the A/S for this assurance and
reiterated his thanks, on behalf of the Lebanese Army, for
all of the support from the USG. Sleiman praised USG support
in Washington and from the Embassy. On the elevator on the
way out of the meeting, A/S Welch privately complimented
Sleiman on the LAF's performance at Nahr al-Barid and in
keeping the Palestinian camps quiet, especially during the
recent flare-ups at the Ain el-Hilwe camp. He said the U.S.
was developing a robust package of further military
assistance. Sleiman asked the U.S. for help in securing Puma
helicopters and other aircraft from the U.A.E.

THE PARTIES NEED TO DO THEIR JOB,
MAKE SOME CONCESSIONS AND MOVE ON
--------------


5. (C) Sleiman bemoaned the political gridlock that has
seized the country. After such a long delay in the
elections, Sleiman feels it is time for the parties to make
the necessary concessions so that the political process can
move forward. He was clearly upset by the numerous caveats
and exceptions that keep being placed on his election as
president.

AOUN IS VERY NERVOUS AND LOSING GROUND
--------------


6. (C) General Sleiman did not have any kind words for
General Michel Aoun, saying Aoun appears to be under a great
deal of pressure. Even with many people abandoning him, such
as MP Michel Murr, Aoun does not appear to be able to accept
any political compromise that does not elect him president.
Sleiman told us that no one, "not one political party,"
believes Aoun can win the election. As such, Sleiman said

BEIRUT 00000551 002.2 OF 002


Aoun "should be pushed to say "yes" to the concessions."


7. (C) Aoun, as the self-styled "leader of the Christians,"
is very nervous at this time, Sleiman continued, noting that
on April 17 Aoun telephoned the Mayor of Byblos to accost him
and demand his political support. According to Sleiman, this
shows how nervous Aoun has become since Byblos was
traditionally an Aoun stronghold. Sleiman thinks that
defections from Aoun may allow Speaker of Parliament Berri
some additional maneuvering space as well. In fact, on April
18, members of the Byblos Municipal Council organized a
gatherin in support of electing General Michel Suleiman
president.


8. (C) Even with these defections, Sleiman is convinced that
Aoun's core supporters will never accept a compromise unless
Aoun leads them to it because, "they have sufficient money."
Sleiman told us that he expects further defections in the
city of Zahle when groups gather April 19 to discuss their
political future. Sleiman said he would stay out of these
political discussions as, "I can act in these matters, but I
prefer that civilians do this."

SHOULD I STAY OR SHOULD I GO NOW?
I'LL STAY, BUT ONLY ON THE ORDER OF PARLIAMENT
-------------- -


9. (C) Sleiman assured A/S Welch that he is patient and will
continue to be patient with the political process. Even so,
he seemed annoyed by the words of politicians concerning the
position of Army Commander saying some of them think it is a
"little job." Sleiman accused the politicians of shirking
their responsibilities to elect a new president by saying
they can extend the mandate of the Army Commander. Sleiman
reminded us that he turns 60 years old on November 21 and
that he will be obliged to retire.


10. (C) Switching from an incredulous tone to one of
seriousness, Sleiman asked, "What if I have an accident
before then? Am I indispensable? I say no. My speech is to
send a message to the parties that we have many other issues
to address, such as the electoral law and the cabinet."
Sleiman confirmed that the Army Commander post is one of
great importance for the Maronites and that it cannot go
unfilled. Returning to an earlier theme, he called on the
politicians to make concessions and move the political
process along.


11. (C) Sleiman felt his message had been received by many
people, but was not entirely certain it would be acted on
right away. Thus, he will continue to be "patient." Sleiman
believes his threat to leave office in August will accelerate
the concessions process as his impending retirement will
force politicians to make decisions. He also sees this as an
occasion to put pressure on his own multi-confessional Army
staff to start making the hard decisions about the transition
of Army Command to a new Commander and the concomitant
requirements in the Army.


12. (C) In the end, Sleiman said he would acquiesce to an
extension of his mandate beyond November, "but only
parliament can do this." Sleiman set out his own conditions
for accepting any extension: parliament can extend him for a
month or two if they promise to elect a president.

COMMENT
--------------


13. (C) While Sleiman is trying to be firm with the
politicians, we deem it unlikely that he will leave his army
post even if the parliament does not convene and formally
extend him. His true attitude is exemplified by a comment he
made during this meeting: "I cannot quit the Army without
making measures to preserve the unity of the Army." The Army
is his legacy and his love; we do not believe he will walk
away. End comment.


15. (U) A/S Welch has not had the opportunity to clear this
cable.
SISON