LEBANON: ARMY COMMANDER WILL EXTEND IF ORDERED BY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000551 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS DEPT PASS TO EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/GAVITO E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2018 TAGS: MASS MCAP PTER PARM PINR KPAL SY AE IS LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: ARMY COMMANDER WILL EXTEND IF ORDERED BY THE PARLIAMENT BEIRUT 00000551 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: CDA Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In an April 18 meeting with NEA Assistant Secretary David Welch, Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) Commander General Michel Sleiman stressed he was intent on retiring by November 21, 2008. Sleiman said his announcement that he would leave his post on August 21 was designed to put pressure on the politicians to seek a solution and to quit shirking their duties. In the end, however, Sleiman conceded that he would accept an extension for "one or two months" if parliament passed a law calling for his extension. Outside of parliament, Sleiman did not believe anyone else has the authority to extend his tenure as LAF Commander. End Summary. ¶2. (C) NEA A/S Welch, accompanied by Charge, DATT, and Pol/Econ Chief, met with LAF Commander Michel Sleiman at his office in Yarze on April 18. Sleiman opened his remarks by recalling all of the great tragedies that have struck the United States in Lebanon: the bombing of the U.S. Embassy on April 18, 1983, the bombing of the Marine Barracks in October 1983, and the bombing of the U.S. Embassy Annex in September ¶1984. Sleiman noted that these were great sacrifices made by Americans for the cause of supporting democracy in Lebanon. For these many sacrifices, Sleiman offered his thanks, and his condolences. THANKS FOR YOUR STRONG SUPPORT I KNOW YOUR PROGRAM TO SUPPORT LEBANON IS STRONG -------------- --- ¶3. (C) A/S Welch strongly reaffirmed USG support for the Lebanese Army as the only remaining state institution that is functioning properly. He assured Sleiman that U.S. support is bipartisan, stressing, "it does not matter who the next President (of the USA) is, our support for Lebanon will not change." He said Iran and Syria continue to interfere in Lebanon, but that the Arab League summit was an "embarrassing failure" for the latter. The U.S. would continue, both publicly and privately , to push for the election of the president. Although he understood the pressures Sleiman was under, he advised him to be patient. ¶4. (C) Sleiman thanked the A/S for this assurance and reiterated his thanks, on behalf of the Lebanese Army, for all of the support from the USG. Sleiman praised USG support in Washington and from the Embassy. On the elevator on the way out of the meeting, A/S Welch privately complimented Sleiman on the LAF's performance at Nahr al-Barid and in keeping the Palestinian camps quiet, especially during the recent flare-ups at the Ain el-Hilwe camp. He said the U.S. was developing a robust package of further military assistance. Sleiman asked the U.S. for help in securing Puma helicopters and other aircraft from the U.A.E. THE PARTIES NEED TO DO THEIR JOB, MAKE SOME CONCESSIONS AND MOVE ON -------------- ¶5. (C) Sleiman bemoaned the political gridlock that has seized the country. After such a long delay in the elections, Sleiman feels it is time for the parties to make the necessary concessions so that the political process can move forward. He was clearly upset by the numerous caveats and exceptions that keep being placed on his election as president. AOUN IS VERY NERVOUS AND LOSING GROUND -------------- ¶6. (C) General Sleiman did not have any kind words for General Michel Aoun, saying Aoun appears to be under a great deal of pressure. Even with many people abandoning him, such as MP Michel Murr, Aoun does not appear to be able to accept any political compromise that does not elect him president. Sleiman told us that no one, "not one political party," believes Aoun can win the election. As such, Sleiman said BEIRUT 00000551 002.2 OF 002 Aoun "should be pushed to say "yes" to the concessions." ¶7. (C) Aoun, as the self-styled "leader of the Christians," is very nervous at this time, Sleiman continued, noting that on April 17 Aoun telephoned the Mayor of Byblos to accost him and demand his political support. According to Sleiman, this shows how nervous Aoun has become since Byblos was traditionally an Aoun stronghold. Sleiman thinks that defections from Aoun may allow Speaker of Parliament Berri some additional maneuvering space as well. In fact, on April 18, members of the Byblos Municipal Council organized a gatherin in support of electing General Michel Suleiman president. ¶8. (C) Even with these defections, Sleiman is convinced that Aoun's core supporters will never accept a compromise unless Aoun leads them to it because, "they have sufficient money." Sleiman told us that he expects further defections in the city of Zahle when groups gather April 19 to discuss their political future. Sleiman said he would stay out of these political discussions as, "I can act in these matters, but I prefer that civilians do this." SHOULD I STAY OR SHOULD I GO NOW? I'LL STAY, BUT ONLY ON THE ORDER OF PARLIAMENT -------------- - ¶9. (C) Sleiman assured A/S Welch that he is patient and will continue to be patient with the political process. Even so, he seemed annoyed by the words of politicians concerning the position of Army Commander saying some of them think it is a "little job." Sleiman accused the politicians of shirking their responsibilities to elect a new president by saying they can extend the mandate of the Army Commander. Sleiman reminded us that he turns 60 years old on November 21 and that he will be obliged to retire. ¶10. (C) Switching from an incredulous tone to one of seriousness, Sleiman asked, "What if I have an accident before then? Am I indispensable? I say no. My speech is to send a message to the parties that we have many other issues to address, such as the electoral law and the cabinet." Sleiman confirmed that the Army Commander post is one of great importance for the Maronites and that it cannot go unfilled. Returning to an earlier theme, he called on the politicians to make concessions and move the political process along. ¶11. (C) Sleiman felt his message had been received by many people, but was not entirely certain it would be acted on right away. Thus, he will continue to be "patient." Sleiman believes his threat to leave office in August will accelerate the concessions process as his impending retirement will force politicians to make decisions. He also sees this as an occasion to put pressure on his own multi-confessional Army staff to start making the hard decisions about the transition of Army Command to a new Commander and the concomitant requirements in the Army. ¶12. (C) In the end, Sleiman said he would acquiesce to an extension of his mandate beyond November, "but only parliament can do this." Sleiman set out his own conditions for accepting any extension: parliament can extend him for a month or two if they promise to elect a president. COMMENT -------------- ¶13. (C) While Sleiman is trying to be firm with the politicians, we deem it unlikely that he will leave his army post even if the parliament does not convene and formally extend him. His true attitude is exemplified by a comment he made during this meeting: "I cannot quit the Army without making measures to preserve the unity of the Army." The Army is his legacy and his love; we do not believe he will walk away. End comment. ¶15. (U) A/S Welch has not had the opportunity to clear this cable. SISON