LEBANON: WELCH TO BERRI: HOLD DIALOGUE IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000549 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER DEPT FOR NEA/FO, AND NEA/ELA DEPT PASS TO EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2018 TAGS: OVIP PARM PGOV PREL PTER IS LE SY SUBJECT: LEBANON: WELCH TO BERRI: HOLD DIALOGUE IN PARLIAMENT Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i. Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In an April 17 meeting with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, NEA A/S David Welch discussed the continuing impasse on the presidential election and Berri's proposal for a new national dialogue. Berri described his recent regional tour to garner support for his proposal and said the Arab League Summit was only half successful because the GOL was not present. Berri reiterated that his proposal was the only way to solve the crises and that it was important for the U.S. to support him publicly. A/S Welch told Berri that a president should be elected first, and that parliament was the appropriate venue to hold the national dialogue. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Visiting NEAQ/S David Welch, accompanied by Charge Sison, NEA/FO Staff Assistant, Pol/Econ Chief, and PolOff, met with the Speaker and his advisor Ali Hamdan at Berri's office in Ain el-Tineh on April 17. BERRI'S ARAB TOUR -------------- ¶3. (C) Berri said his recent visits to Syria, Egypt, and Qatar to garner support for his planned national dialogue proposal were good and that he was optimistic as a result. A/S Welch asked Berri if what he heard in Damascus was good news. Berri replied that he told the Emir of Qatar that this was the first time in his 25- year relationship with the Syrians that he felt Syria wanted a solution on Lebanon. ¶4. (C) Berri said he told Syrian President Bashar Assad that Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) Commander, General Michel Sleiman, is the Lebanese consensus candidate. He also told Assad the Syrians can have no pre-conditions on national dialogue in Lebanon. According to Berri, Assad agreed. Assad reportedly said Syria was ready to normalize relations with Lebanon by opening exchanging diplomatic missions and demarcating the bilateral border from Shebaa Farms in the south to the northern Lebanese/Syrian border. ARAB LEAGUE SUMMIT HALF SUCCESSFUL -------------- ¶5. (C) Berri said he had had big hopes for the Arab League summit in Damascus, but that it was only half successful due to Lebanon's absence. A/S Welch noted that the Arab League Summit was hosted by one of Berri's "friends," and that the Syrians did nothing to help solve the Lebanese crisis during the summit. ¶6. (C) Berri blamed PM Siniora's boycott of the summit for the lack of progress, adding that, as he had told Assad this during their meeting, it was a mistake for Lebanon not to attend. However, Berri believed the situation was better now than before the summit. Berri doubted Lebanon's Arab neighbors could do anything to help solve the crisis; therefore it was important for the Lebanese themselves to come together in national dialogue to reach a solution. ¶7. (C) A/S Welch noted that Berri criticized the U.S. for not supporting the Arab League initiative. A/S Welch explained that the U.S. position was driven by two considerations: first, the U.S. had to be careful, because public U.S. support could give some in Lebanon and abroad an excuse to oppose it; second, Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa had specifically asked the U.S. not to make any statements for or against the initiative. BEIRUT 00000549 002 OF 003 BERRI'S CALL FOR NATIONAL DIALOGUE -------------- ¶8. (C) Berri said he was ready to call for a new national dialogue beginning on April 18 (the following day),if all the sides agreed to participate, giving them four days to reach an agreement before the April 22 electoral session. Citing the Belgian example, Berri said the two sides should talk until an agreement is reached, but that in his view the dialogue would not need to last longer than ten days. ¶9. (C) Berri added that if no solution is reached by April 22, his national dialogue could continue, without an announcement on the next election date. Berri was asked by A/S Welch about the next step if a consensus was not reached on April 22. He avoided answering the question, only saying that all sides would "go home" if no solution is reached. Berri asked A/S Welch to convince March 14 to accept his proposal. He said certain members of March 14 are the problem and that his March 8 allies in Parliament all want dialogue. OPEN PARLIAMENT NOW, ELECT PRESIDENT THEN HAVE DIALOGUE -------------- ¶10. (C) A/S Welch urged Berri to open parliament now, elect consensus presidential candidate, LAF Commander, Michel Sleiman, and use parliament to discuss the formation of a national unity government and electoral law reform. MPs would come to vote and three things would happen: first, neither side would appear to be victorious; second, neither side would appear to be vanquished; and third, Berri will be given the credit for resolving the impasse. Berri replied emphatically that he could not open parliament without two-thirds of the MPs, which required the opposition to be present. A/S Welch countered that Berri's duties as Speaker superseded his position as a party leader or opposition member. ¶11. (C) If a president is elected now, consensus can then begin on other issues, A/S Welch stressed. No one would mistrust the process if it occurred transparently in the parliament. A/S Welch added that the opposition should fight for its allocation of cabinet seats in the parliament. Berri had an opportunity to change the political equation in Lebanon after the failure of the Arab League Summit. ¶12. (C) A/S Welch warned that if a president is not elected, the U.S. will continue its support for the Siniora cabinet, the only remaining functioning institution. PM Siniora would then be the only GOL leader who can engage with other countries to get things done for Lebanon. Berri accused the U.S. of preferring this scenario, but A/S Welch countered that the U.S. does not desire a continued stalemate. However, if the cabinet is the only institution that works, then the U.S. will work with the cabinet and the prime minister. ¶13. (C) A/S Welch said that governmental institutions are important, and that the majority of the Arab world, international community, and Lebanese would support Berri if he opened parliament. A/S Welch added that if Berri did so, the U.S. would do everything in its power to protect Berri and his country. DIALOGUE WILL ONLY ADDRESS NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT AND ELECTORAL LAW -------------- ¶14. (C) Berri said his call for dialogue would only address the two remaining undecided issues of the Arab League BEIRUT 00000549 003 OF 003 initiative: the national unity government and a new electoral law, as the issue of a president had already been solved. A/S Welch disagreed, recalling that Lebanon still does not have a president. He also stressed that the Arab League initiative calls first for the immediate election of a president, then for formation of a national unity government and a new electoral law. Berri reiterated that, if all sides can come to a consensus on the latter two issues, he would convene parliament to elect Sleiman. INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT FOR BERRI WANING -------------- ¶15. (C) A/S Welch said the international community was planning to take action on Lebanon on April 22 (referring the Friends of Lebanon meeting in Kuwait on the margins of the Iraq Neighbors conference) and suggested that Berri act first to save his credibility. The international community, including the Arab world, was beginning to move away from Berri, he warned. ¶16. (C) Berri noted that Lebanon is entering a very dangerous time and needed help. Time is running out, he warned; in four or five months it will be too late to talk about a national unity government because an interim government made up equally of March 14 and March 8 ministers will be needed to prepare the 2009 parliamentary elections, including a new electoral law. U.S ONLY WANTS TO HELP LEBANON -------------- ¶17. (C) A/S Welch said the U.S. does not seek to interfere in Lebanese affairs and only wants to help Lebanon. He reminded Berri that the U.S. was asked to offer a list of names for consensus president last year, but that the U.S. did not play the name game. The U.S. was also asked to give its opinion on how cabinet seats should be allocated. A/S Welch said, "The U.S. refused on both occasions, because these are Lebanese decisions." ¶18. (C) A/S Welch noted that sometimes countries choose to do the opposite of what the U.S. recommends. Berri laughed, agreeing that if he runs again U.S. support for his opponent would ensure his (Berri's) victory. Turning serious again, however, he insinuated that March 14 owed its majority to U.S. support. "If the U.S. is with me, I can win. If you are with me, I do not care about the rest of the world." ITALIAN QUESTION -------------- ¶19. (C) Berri warned that Italy's Prime Minister-elect, Silvio Berlusconi, wanted to change the rules of engagement for Italian troops attached to the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). Berri suggested that the U.S. pay close attention to this issue. ¶20. (U) A/S Welch has not had the opportunity to clear this cable. SISON