LEBANON: WITH WELCH, MARCH 14 REPORTS ON EFFORTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000544

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER
DEPT PASS TO EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL SY LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: WITH WELCH, MARCH 14 REPORTS ON EFFORTS
TO UNIFY

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) March 14 Secretary General Fares Suaid hosted an April
17 luncheon for visiting NEA A/S Welch, attended by a strong
showing of March 14 representatives. Welch assured the
participants that the U.S. supports the immediate election of
a president. There was consensus among all of the
participants that a president must be elected without further
delay, with some voicing their support for a "half plus plus"
majority. Suaid informed Welch that the March 14 members
were seeking greater coordination as a coalition while
preserving individual party differences. Suaid said they
were working toward a common platform on key issues such as
electoral law.


2. (C) Participants noted that March 14's popularity is
growing, while there is increasing "malaise" within Michel
Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement party. Prime Minister Fouad
Siniora's advisor suggested that the PM's recent visits to
Arab capitals successfully shifted their perception from
viewing Lebanon's conflict as internal to seeing Syria as the
cause of Lebanon's problems. End summary.


3. (C) March 14 Secretary General Fares Suaid hosted a
luncheon for visiting NEA A/S Welch on April 17, attended by
a strong showing of March 14 representatives. Attendees
included: Antoine Haddad and Camille Ziadeh (representing
Nassib Lahoud),Eddy Abillama and Georges Adwan (representing
Lebanese Forces),Mohammad Chatah (advisor to Prime Minister
Fouad Siniora),MP Samir Franjieh, former MP Mansour Bone,
Ghattas Khoury and Nader Hariri (advisors to Saad Hariri),
Michel Mouawad (representing his mother, Minister Nayla
Mouawad),Salim Sayegh (representing Amine Gemayel),Ahmad
Safadi (representing MP and Minister of Public Works and
Transportation Mohammed Safadi),Sami Nader, Sheikh Michel
Khoury, National Bloc leader Carlos Eddy, and Karim
Karagulla. Charge, Pol/Econ Chief, Special Assistant, and
PolStaff were also present.

INCREASED MARCH 14 COORDINATION
--------------


4. (C) Suaid informed Welch that the March 14 Secretariat was
created because March 14 members were seeking greater
coordination as a coalition. Suaid stressed that while they
are seeking a common platform on major issues, the various
parties within the coalition will maintain their differences.
Reaching a common position on a new electoral law is a
priority for March 14, Suaid said.

MARCH 14 STRONGER THAN EVER
--------------


5. (C) Michel Mouawad argued that March 14 is in a much
better position than it was when Welch visited in December.
First, he posited, we have more popular support and have
proved that we are the majority, citing March 14 successes in
university and professional union elections. Second, the
international and Arab communities are more aligned in their
support for March 14. Third, he continued, we are better
coordinated as a group.

TIME TO ELECT A PRESIDENT
--------------


6. (C) Since March 14 is stronger than ever, Mouawad
concluded, we must move to elect a president with a "greater
than half plus one" majority, if we cannot secure a
two-thirds majority. Salim Sayegh, representing Amine
Gemayel, also called for electing a president immediately,
even if that meant with a half plus one majority. Ahmad
Safadi said that everyone now agrees on electing Lebanese
Armed Forces Commander Michel Sleiman and therefore
proceeding with his election is the first step towards
resolving Lebanon's problems. Carlos Eddy was the lone voice
taking exception to agreement on Sleiman's candidacy. Welch
assured the participants that the U.S. supports the immediate
election of a president.


7. (C) Admitting that it is not yet clear whether Sleiman
would accept a "half plus plus" majority, Mouawad proposed
that March 14 build momentum internally and with the

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international community, gain the Patriarch's support, and
work to secure as many votes as possible. Once they reach
the maximum number of votes they deem possible, Mouawad said,
March 14 should then approach Sleiman to see if he will
accept, and if so, proceed with the election.

FINANCES ROOT OF DISCONTENT
IN AOUN'S PARTY
--------------


8. (C) Carlos Eddy attributed what he called a "malaise"
within Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) to the
flow of cash to certain members at the exclusion of others.
He recommended that the international community regulate
FPM's financial transactions.

ARAB WORLD NOW SEES SYRIA
AS THE INSTIGATOR
--------------


9. (C) PM Siniora's chief aide Mohammed Chatah suggested that
the PM's recent visits to Arab capitals successfully shifted
their perception from viewing Lebanon's conflict as an
internal dispute between the majority and the opposition, to
seeing Syria as the cause of Lebanon's problems. Moreover,
Chatah continued, Siniora enlarged the conflict in Arab
leaders' minds from a presidential issue to a problem in the
Lebanese-Syrian relationship. George Adwan added that
parliament Speaker Nabih Berri is attempting to portray the
opposite - that the problem is strictly internal. He
requested that the U.S., France, and the rest of the
international community continue to point to Syria as the
instigator.


10. (C) Chatah noted that although the GOL position is close
to March 14's thinking, Siniora was conveying the official
GOL stance during his visits, as opposed the to the position
of the March 14 coalition.

MARCH 14 MEMORANDUM
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11. (C) Suaid gave Welch a March 14 Memorandum outlining
March 14's demands to achieve sovereignty and independence.
He stressed that resolving the crisis in Lebanon depends on
improving Lebanese-Syrian relations. He requested U.S.
support in forming an international investigative committee
to look into the fate of Lebanese nationals held in Syrian
prisons.


12. (C) In response to points raised in the document, Welch
reported that the administration of the Special Tribunal was
being set up and that UNIIIC Commissioner Daniel Bellemare
indicated progress in his investigations. Welch also noted
that the U.S. was discussing how to further help the LAF and
then stated clearly that the U.S. is against "tawteen"
(Palestinian resettlement living in Lebanon). Note: A copy
of the memorandum has been forwarded to NEA/ELA. End Note.

REQUESTING PRESSURE AGAINST
SYRIA; ECONOMIC SUPPORT
--------------


13. (C) Several participants suggested that the U.S. and
Europe apply more pressure against Syria and continue to name
Syria as the source of Lebanon's problems. Mouawad added
that Lebanon needs economic support so that economic troubles
do not shift support away from the Siniora government.

ALLYING WITH SHIA
--------------


14. (C) Noting that March 8 is allied with Hizballah, Hamas,
Syria, and Iran, MP Samir Franjieh called for an "alliance
between the democratic forces in the Arab world and March
14." He also suggested March 14 reach out to the Beirut
representative of the Shia religious authority Sayyed
al-Sistani.

INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE
--------------


15. (C) Calling for an international conference on Lebanon to
counter Syria, Sami Nader said Lebanon needed to reengage
France in a "manageable" way. Regarding the April 22
"Friends of Lebanon" meeting scheduled to take place in

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Kuwait on the margins of an Iraq meeting, Welch said he did
not know whether France intended to invite Lebanon. He
advised that the Siniora government should decide if it wants
to participate and if so, make a formal request to the French
Embassy.

MARCH 14'S WORKSHOPS
--------------


16. (C) Antoine Haddad reported on the workshops the
coalition has been sponsoring since its convention on March

14. He said that the focus is on domestic issues, including
electoral law, local government, governance and corruption,
and administrative reform, with discussion of external issues
such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to come next. Civil
society participation is invaluable, noted Haddad, because
March 14 wants people to feel they are contributing to the
future of an improved Lebanon. He added that they have a
three-month deadline (until June 14) to develop a new vision
for March 14.

DISAPPROVAL OVER CARTER'S TRIP
--------------


17. (C) Inquiring about the U.S. position on former President
Carter's upcoming meeting with Hamas, Sheikh Michel Khoury
expressed his disapproval over talking to Hamas and
Hizballah. He said, "Carter's visit is more negative than
Speaker Pelosi's visit to Damascus last year."


18. (U) A/S Welch has not had the opportunity to clear this
cable.
SISON