LEBANON: AOUN PLAGUED BY INTERNAL DIVISIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000519 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER DEPT PASS TO EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/14/2018 TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KDEM SY LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: AOUN PLAGUED BY INTERNAL DIVISIONS Classified By: CDA Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Several recent events indicate possible divisions within Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) party and, on a broader scale, a decline in popularity for Aoun's Change and Reform parliamentary bloc, part of the March 8/Aoun opposition. First, Aoun postponed his party's internal elections by four months; second, key ally MP Michel Murr formally announced his split from Aoun's parliamentary bloc; and third, March 8 lost the Engineers' Union elections in Tripoli and Beirut to March 14 candidates. End summary. INTERNAL DIVISION -------------- ¶2. (C) On April 7, leader of Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) Michel Aoun decided to postpone his party's election, originally scheduled for May 4, until October 26. While FPM cited logistical and administrative reasons for this delay, sources in the party told Senior LES POLITICAL Advisor that the postponement is related to the growing conflict between two competing sides within FPM. ¶3. (C) Sources close to FPM told us that the tension started when approximately 80 prominent FPM figures gathered to prepare for FPM's Central Committee elections. The participants were disenchanted with the growing influence of Michel Aoun's son-in-law and chief advisor, Gebran Bassil, coupled with Aoun's efforts to secure the election of Bassil as FPM's vice president. When Aoun heard about this "mutiny," he reproached those involved and formed a disciplinary committee to investigate corruption allegations brought by Bassil against his POLITICAL foes inside FPM. ¶4. (C) The "dissidents" inside the party include Aoun's nephews, Alain Aoun and Naim Aoun, Simon Abi Ramia, and others. They are opposed by Gebran Bassil and Pierre Raffoul. Alain Aoun told us that the "dissidents" want to have the party more institutionalized but discounted reports that some FPM members will split. He added that there is a growing concern that the party is turning into a "family business." ¶5. (C) A NowLebanon article entitled "A Crumbling Empire: The real reasons behind the postponement of FPM elections" delved into FPM's internal RELATIONS and reported that in addition to internal competing interests, FPM is also plagued by financial disputes. Quoting one of its sources, the article claimed that FPM was assigned to execute several million dollar projects to support southern suburbs, but that the money went directly to Bassil and another individual, purportedly because they are close to Hizballah. ¶6. (C) The source also complained that Aoun's immediate family members act as the party's bankers, alleging that all of the party's campaign donations and Diaspora contributions wind up in Aoun and his family's personal accounts, or into OTV, FPM's television network run by Aoun's other son-in-law, Roy al-Hashem. MURR OFFICIALLY SPLITS WITH AOUN -------------- ¶7. (C) MP Michel Murr formally announced on April 9, following a large meeting with his allies from the Metn region north of Beirut, that he broke away from Aoun's Change and Reform parliamentary bloc. During a press conference held the same day, Murr stated that he is "neither with the opposition, nor the majority," adding, "I will be independent; I will not be under the mercy of any party or bloc." He called for the immediate election of a president and pressured the parliamentarians to expedite the process to elect Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) Commander Michel Sleiman. MARCH 8 LOSES ENGINEERS' UNION ELECTIONS BECAUSE OF CHRISTIAN VOTE -------------- ¶8. (C) In addition to his bloc losing a key ally, Aoun's March 8 coalition is also experiencing other losses. Recent elections for the Engineers' Union resulted in gains for March 14 in both Beirut and Tripoli because there was a higher turnout than expected of Christian voters, and they BEIRUT 00000519 002 OF 002 opted for March 14 instead of March 8. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) Accusations of nepotism involving Aoun and his family members, and griping about overly centralized power within FPM, are not new, but our conversations with FPM members suggest that the discontent within the party is increasing. Should the party break up, it could benefit another Christian member of the opposition, former Minister Suleiman Franjieh. Franjieh's popularity is growing in Mount Lebanon, away from his traditional power base farther north, and his Marada party is opening offices in Mount Lebanon, where Aoun is strong. End comment. SISON