LEBANON: HIZBALLAH WAITING FOR MARCH 14 TO SHIFT

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000498

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER
DEPT PASS TO EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PINR IS SY LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: HIZBALLAH WAITING FOR MARCH 14 TO SHIFT
ON CABINET AND ELECTORAL LAW


Classified By: CDA Michele J. Sison for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (S) A Hizballah security official told an interlocutor
from the office of the UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon
that electoral law is all that remains to be discussed
regarding Lebanon's political impasse. The Hizballah
official claims the majority and opposition have agreed on
Lebanese Armed Forces Commander Michel Sleiman as the
consensus presidential candidate, and March 14 will soon
accept the 10-10-10 cabinet formation supported by the
opposition. The Hizballah official speculated that the
security situation will be "quiet for the coming period." He
also hinted at progress in the coming months in negotiations
oer the prisoners' swap between Israel and Hizballa. End
summary.

FULL SUPPORT FOR BERRI INITIATIVE
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2. (S) Diego Zorrilla (please protect),a contact at the
office of the UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon (UNSCOL)
briefed POLOFF on his April 2 meeting with Hizballah security
official Wafiq Safa, who acts as Hizballah's liaison to all
of Lebanon's security services. With the post of Special
Coordinator vacant since Geir Pederson departed in February,
Zorrilla and others on the UNSCOL staff are maintaining the
office's contacts with Safa, their normal Hizballah
interlocutor. A reportedly relaxed Safa expressed
Hizballah's full support for parliament Speaker Nabih Berri's
attempt to renew the 2006 National Dialogue. (Note: It seems
Berri was shopping the idea around to secure support before
pushing for it with March 14. Speaking on April 2, Safa said
the initiative would not be formally proposed for another
week to ten days. Berri publicly announced it had Syrian
support following his April 7 visit to Damascus. End note.)

ELECTORAL LAW ONLY OPEN ISSUE
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3. (S) According to Zorrilla, Safa said that the electoral
law remains the only contentious issue between the majority
and the opposition that is holding up the presidential
election. He said that March 14 and March 8 have agreed on
Lebanese Armed Forces Commander Michel Sleiman's candidacy
and that the 10-10-10 cabinet formation "is by now clear."
(Note: During an April 1 conversation with UNSCOL
representatives, we were told that Hizballah's main demand is
for the opposition to have a blocking third in the cabinet,
or at a minimum, a 10-10-10 split. According to UNSCOL, all
of the other conditions placed upon March 14 before agreeing
to elect a president have been set by Free Patriotic Movement
Michel Aoun or Berri, not by them, although Hizballah does
benefit from these demands. End note.)


4. (S) Safa reportedly believes that Druze leader Walid
Jumblatt will be able to bring the resisting March 14 leaders
on board. Safa rationalized that the majority would become
increasingly amenable to the opposition's demands because
March 14 leaders had been waiting for the U.S. to attack Iran
or for an Israeli-Syrian war. They have now realized,
however, that neither will happen so they will shift to a
position more accommodating to Hizballah.

AOUN REMAINS OUR MOUTHPIECE
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5. (S) Commenting on March 8's recent organizational efforts
mimicking those of March 14 (to include forming a secretariat
and holding a conference),Safa assured his UN contact that
Aoun remains the representative of the opposition in any
negotiations with March 14 to resolve the political impasse,
although a March 8 spokesman will be appointed.

STABILITY IN THE COMING PERIOD
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6. (S) According to Zorrilla, Safa predicted the security
situation will be quiet for the coming period. He claimed it
is calm in the south and that Hizballah wants stability for
the time being.

PROGRESS ON ISRAEL -

BEIRUT 00000498 002 OF 002


HIZBALLAH PRISONERS' SWAP
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7. (C) Hizballah is expecting progress will be made in the
coming months in its negotiations over a prisoners swap
between Israel and Hizballah. Safa reported that previously
Israel had been opposing Hizballah's demands for prisoner
releases, but now he is optimistic that progress will be made
in the coming months or by the end of the year (NFI).

COMMENT
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8. (S) Safa's prediction of calm for the foreseeable future
tracks with what we are hearing from other sources that
Hizballah is not ready to provoke a confrontation with
Israel. We do not believe March 14 is near to accepting a
10-10-10 cabinet. With majority leader Saad Hariri still
abroad, discussions among March 14 leaders are not occurring
on this and other key issues.

SISON