LEBANON: ARMENIAN TASHNAQ PARTY NOT WEDDED TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000491 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA, NEA/IPA, PRM/FO, AND PM/FO NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER TREASURY FOR U/S LEVEY DEPT PASS TO EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PARM PINR KPAL MASS IR AR SY IS, LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: ARMENIAN TASHNAQ PARTY NOT WEDDED TO OPPOSITION REF: BEIRUT 470 BEIRUT 00000491 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: CDA Michele J. Sison for reasons section 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Armenian Tashnaq party MP Hagop Pakradunian believes the solution to the ongoing political impasse lies outside of Lebanon. While supporting the candidacy of Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) Commander Michel Sleiman, Pakradunian insisted that his election be accompanied by agreement on cabinet formation and the electoral law. Tashnaq's alliance with the opposition is a tactical one, stemming from disgruntlement with March 14's unfulfilled promises in the 2005 parliamentary elections and Saad Hariri in particular. Tashnaq favors the 1960 law based on small districts. Tashnaq is not in favor of forcibly disarming Hizballah, and believes solving the Sheba'a Farm dispute would remove the pretext for its arms. Pakradunian said his party is independent of any Iranian influence. End summary. ¶2. (C) Member of the mainstream Tashnaq Armenian opposition party, Hagop Pakradunian, told Pol/Econ Chief and Senior LES Political Advisor on April 3 that the solution to the political deadlock in Lebanon was "not in Lebanese hands" and expressed serious concern about possible domestic security problems. He said the issue is linked to the U.S., Syria, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, hinting that as long as these four countries are in continuous struggle, the political situation in Lebanon would remain the same. ¶3. (C) Pakradunian said the Tashnaq party supports the candidacy of Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) Commander Michel Suleiman, but believes his election should be accompanied by an agreement over the formation of a new cabinet as well as an electoral law. Tashnaq's lack of trust and confidence in the majority compels it to adopt this position, he explained, citing its experience in the 2005 parliamentary elections and the subsequent formation of the Siniora government that excluded Tashnaq. In addition, March 14 had assured Tashnaq that a new electoral would immediately follow the elections, which did not happen either. ¶4. (C) However, despite their differences, the Tashnaq party meets regularly with the various figures of March 14, with the notable exception of MP Saad Hariri. (Note: Hariri refused to accept Tashnaq on his party's list in Beirut in ¶2005. End note.) Pakradunian also disclosed that meetings between the Tashnaq party and other Armenian parties affiliated with Hariri take place regularly and on average once a month. The purpose of these meetings is to discuss Armenian issues. In a recent joint meeting, he added, the various Armenian parties agreed to adopt a positive neutrality in any kind of conflict among Lebanese. ¶5. (C) Padradunian said his party would advocate small districts in a new electoral law, where each district would have between three to five representatives. He supported the 1960 electoral law, whereby the Armenian voters would have a say in bringing to parliament their true representatives in Beirut. However, if the divisions of the city of Beirut remain according the 2000 electoral law, the Tashnaq party would repeat the boycott of 2005. He also expressed pessimism as to the adoption of a new electoral that is more democratic and fair. ¶6. (C) The Tashnaq party does not advocate disarming Hizballah by force, and believes that solving the Sheba'a farms issue would be a key step in working to disarm Hizballah. He also said that his party will not join the opposition's efforts to become more unified because the Tashnaq would prefer to keep its margin of maneuvers wide open. He also believed that Michel Murr will return to Michel Aoun soon. (Comment: Given Murr's Machiavellian approach to politics, we have no doubt Murr would do so should it suit his interests. Murr has significant sway with the Armenians; he succeeded in having them vote against the BEIRUT 00000491 002.2 OF 002 March 14 candidate, Amine Gemayel, in the August 2007 parliamentary by-election, resulting in the election of Aoun's candidate. End comment.) ¶7. (C) Padradunian stressed the independence of the party from any foreign forces and denied stories that the party takes instructions indirectly from Iran, despite the fact that the leader of the Tashnaq International party is of Iranian origin. He repeated several times that the party does not meet with Iranian Embassy officials and all of its decision are taken by the central committee of the party, irrespective of the position of the Armenian based Tashnaq International party. COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) Padradunian freely admitted that Tashnaq's alliance with Aoun is purely for electoral gain and not based on principle. Like Aoun, he points to March 14's failed promises and failure to include his party in the 2005 elections as the reason for its place in the opposition. The Armenian community in Lebanon is small, but can play a decisive role, as we saw in the Metn by-election. We will continue to cultivate Tashnaq and encourage March 14 to open up to the party as well. We note that Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, in his last meeting with Charge Sison (reftel), advocated that March 14 court Tashnaq (Tashnaq's position on the electoral law aligns nicely with Geagea's -- both favor small districts that would ensure their smaller parties get elected). ¶9. (C) Geagea also suggested that the U.S. offer economic assistance to Armenian communities as a way to counter Hizballah's appeal. Padradunian also raised the need for more economic assistance in his meeting with us. USAID has provided assistance to a secondary school and municipality in the Armenian Bourj Hammoud suburb in Beirut, as well as sending one member of the municipality to the U.S. for training. For the first time, USAID also is giving Haigazian University (an Armenian-Orthodoxe operated private institution that is open to all confessions) $700,000 in scholarship funds this year. End comment. SISON