LEBANON: NASRALLAH'S CALL FOR "OPEN WAR" MORE FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000481 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/GAVITO STATE FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/FO:ATACHCO DEPT PASS TO EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PROP PTER SY LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: NASRALLAH'S CALL FOR "OPEN WAR" MORE FOR HIZBALLAH MORALE Classified By: CDA Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) American University in Beirut (AUB) professor and former United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) public affairs officer Timur Goksel believes Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah,s call for "open war" after the assassination of Imad Mugniyeh is more for internal consumption to boost morale within the Hizballah ranks, rather than signaling a possible military action against Israel. Hizballah would like to conduct some type of military action against Israel, but Hizballah leaders are aware the Shia population in south Lebanon are "not in the mood" to face another Israel full-scale military operation, according to Goksel. Hizballah might simply be using the open war threat just to make life "uncomfortable" for the Israelis and wait for an Israeli provocation to justify its next retaliatory response, Goksel said. End summary. "OPEN WAR" MORE FOR INTERNAL CONSUMPTION -------------- ¶2. (C) On April 3, Poloff met with former UNIFIL public affairs officer and AUB professor Timur Goksel to hear his analysis on the recent call by Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah for "open war" after the February 12 assassination of Imad Mugniyeh. In Goksel's opinion, Nasrallah's statement is for internal consumption to boost morale within the Hizballah ranks, rather than a direct threat signaling an imminent military action by Hizballah against Israel on the southern border. ¶3. (C) Goksel said that Hizballah is not quite "ready" to conduct a retaliatory military action against an Israel target, such as launching Katyusha rockets across the border or taking on a Israeli patrol on the southern Blue Line, that might lead to another all-out conflict with Israel. Hizballah would like to conduct some type of military action against Israel, but Hizballah leaders are quite aware the Shia population in the south Lebanon has not recovered from the July-August 2006 war and they are "not in the mood" to face another Israel full-scale military operation. ¶4. (C) Poloff pointed out that in the past there has been strong public Shia support for Hizballah's military actions, and asked whether it would not be the same this time around. Goksel admitted that most Shia would feel a "obligation" to publicly rally around Hizballah, but the Shia community has suffered greatly from the last bout with the Israeli forces and knows its current economic situation is very precarious if another war with Israel did break out. Goksel surmised this overall feeling within the Shia community is the true brake that is restraining Hizballah from taking military action against Israel at this time. HIZBALLAH RATTLING SWORD TO MAKE LIFE "UNCOMFORTABLE" FOR ISRAELIS -------------- ¶5. (C) Goksel explained that Hizballah might simply be using the open war threat just to make life "uncomfortable" for the Israelis and wait for an Israeli provocation to justify its next retaliatory response. He said that Hizballah military planners may be at a loss as to what direct action to take to avenge Mugniyeh's assassination, but Hizballah leaders know the real way to get back at the Israeli government is to put their people "on edge" and make their daily life uncomfortable. Hizballah is always aware of the reaction of the security-minded Israeli public and PM Ehud Olmert's government public perceived weakness in this area. Goksel added, look at the additional security measures that Israel has been taking to counter a possible Hizballah strike, such as adding extra sky marshals on Israeli aircraft, Israel Defense Force (IDF) raising its security posture and conducting extra military maneuvers along the Blue Line, and having to add extra security measures around its embassies. All of these measures cost money and add to the Israeli public's anxiety about security. Hizballah does not need to take action, the threat alone is costing the Israeli government "millions." BEIRUT 00000481 002 OF 002 MUGNIYEH'S CELEBRATED FUNERAL DID NOT GO OVER WELL WITH SOME IN HIZBALLAH -------------- ¶6. (C) Goksel said that he heard from the "Hizballah grapevine" that some in Hizballah, especially members who participated in military action against the IDF in the July-August 2006 war, are not particularly happy about the "over celebrated" funeral for Imad Mugniyeh and the over-the-top military accolades and the accounts heralding him as the strategic mind behind Hizballah's military operations since his death. Some within the ranks see this extra attention given to Mugniyeh as overblown and even "resent" that their sacrifices in the field have not been commended at the same level. Goksel admitted that it is hard to measure how deep this sentiment goes in the organization, but he commented that if this information has reached his ears then it must be something more than idle rumors. ¶7. (C) Goksel's opinion is that Nasrallah probably would like the high profile funeral and his open war speech to be the end note to the "Mugniyeh martyr episode." While Nasrallah might feel Hizballah needs to conduct some limited face-saving action against Israel to maintain its image as a militant force able to avenge a fallen comrade, Nasrallah knows Hizballah's options are limited at this time. Goksel concluded Nasrallah has got about as much "political mileage" from Mugniyeh assassination as can be expected and may have to bide his time, content in the knowledge that his words alone have caused the Israelis to "scramble" to increase their security measures. SISON