LEBANON: MARCH 14 LEADER WANTS UNIFIL THROUGHOUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 000460

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER
DEPT PASS TO EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MARR MOPS SY KPAL IS LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: MARCH 14 LEADER WANTS UNIFIL THROUGHOUT
THE COUNTRY

REF: BEIRUT 438

Classified By: CDA Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Dory Chamoun, president of the National Liberal Party
and member of the March 14 oalition, believes that the
political impasse inLebanon can best be solved by the UN and
advocated for a UNIFIL presence "throughout Lebanon."
Dismissing any possibility of a united Maronite community in
Lebanon, he submitted that Free Patriotic Movement head
Michel Aoun was slowly losing support in favor of March 14.
Chamoun also dismissed Maronite Patriarch Sfeir's influence,
saying that he is surrounded by bad advisors. End summary.

UN CONTROL OF LEBANON
--------------


2. (C) The Charge, accompanied by PolOff, visited Dory
Chamoun, president of the National Liberal Party and member
of the March 14 coalition, at his party headquarters on April
2 on the eve of his visit to Washington. "Syria needs to be
rapped on the knuckles or there will be no solution here,"
Chamoun said, adding that the U.S. has done all it can with
respect to Syria. Saying that the path to peace between
Palestinians and Israelis is via Damascus, he predicted that
war will break out between Syria and Israel by summertime,
which will bring the two countries to the negotiating table
to discuss the Golan Heights. He added that Lebanon cannot
make peace with Israel at this time, and accused Israel of
"being in bed with Syria" because Israel fears a potentially
more radical regime succeeding President Bashar al-Assad's.


3. (C) "It is becoming more clear that the Lebanese problem
can't be solved by Arabs," he stated. Proposing that the GOL
hold a referendum asking its citizens whether they would
prefer to be under the auspices of the international
community or left to Lebanon's self-destructive in-fighting,
Chamoun proposed an expansion of UNIFIL "throughout Lebanon."
Hizballah would be finished, he argued. He suggested the
UN, and not the U.S., propose the idea of a UN umbrella with
a neutral presence to manage Lebanon. He anticipated that
the British and the other Europeans would support this
proposal.

DIVIDED MARONITE COMMUNITY;
SERPENT ADVISING THE PATRIARCH
--------------


4. (C) Chamoun told the Charge that it would take a "miracle"
for the Maronite community to be united. Blaming Free
Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun and his 2006 memorandum
of understanding with Hizballah, Chamoun said that people
were slowly leaving Aoun, though not enough. He noted the
importance of MP Michel Murr's recent murmurings of
separating from Aoun (reftel). On the other hand, Chamoun
continued, MP Farid Khazen is happily allied with Aoun.


5. (C) Part of the problem lies with Maronite Patriarch Sfeir
and his inner circle, Chamoun explained. He said he no
longer visits Sfeir because he is fed up with his close
advisors, such as Bishop Samir Mazloum, who Chamoun labeled a
"serpent." Chamoun added that "things started to go wrong"
once Mazloum joined the Patriarch's inner circle.

SINIORA'S "HISTORIC" SPEECH
--------------


6. (C) Chamoun remarked that Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's
speech, the eve before the Arab League summit commenced on
March 29, was a "statesman's speech, done with courage." He
also said it was "historic for a Sunni" because Siniora
prioritized Lebanon's interest above Arab interests, which he
explained was not the norm for Sunni leaders.

SISON