LEBANON: ANTI-HIZBALLAH SHIA LEADER CONTINUES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000456 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/GAVITO DEPT PASS TO EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER SY LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: ANTI-HIZBALLAH SHIA LEADER CONTINUES CAMPAIGN FOR USG SUPPORT REF: BEIRUT 358 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In an April 2 meeting, independent Shia leader Ahmad Assad claimed that his Lebanese Options Group (LOG) political party was gaining momentum among the Shia community, and in particular from former supporters of Amal, the party of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. Assad is appealing primarily to the U.S. for external support, believing that only the U.S. is prepared to bolster independent Shia, and will be visiting the U.S. for the second time this year beginning April 28. Recognizing the power of joining with others in a coalition of Shia who oppose Hizballah, Assad lamented that not everyone is willing to publicly criticize Hizballah. End summary. ¶2. (C) Charge met with Ahmad Assad, independent Shia leader and head of the Lebanese Options Group (LOG) on April 2. The DCM, Senior LES Political Advisor, PolOff, and from Assad's side, AmCit businessman Reed Clark, also attended the meeting. INDEPENDENT SHIA MOVEMENT GAINING MOMENTUM -------------- ¶3. (C) Assad reported that his party, the LOG, has been very busy holding lectures and promoting itself in the media. Its board consists of 22 members, who represent more than southern Lebanon, including members from Beirut and further north, from Jbeil. Commenting that his political party has been very successful in the print media, he said his challenge remains with television, and in particular, with pro-government Lebanon Broadcasting Corporation (LBC). He suspects that LBC is reluctant to work with him because it would send a strong message to Hizballah and LBC is not willing to take this risk. (Note: Assad reported that he has not received any negative reactions to his work from Hizballah -- "nothing" -- and attributed it to Hizballah's desire to maintain a positive image in the Shia communities. End note.) ¶4. (C) Claiming that his group was gaining a lot of support, Assad said the head of the Chamber of Commerce in the Shia-dominated city of Nabatieh in southern Lebanon ihas left Amal and joined LOG. According to Assad, Amal is becoming weak because its supporters are unhappy with what they see as a mistreatment of Amal by Hizballah, believing that Hizballah rules over Amal. He remarked that more people are poised to join his independent party, but first LOG must demonstrate strength. TARGETING USG SUPPORT -------------- ¶5. (C) Believing that only the U.S. is prepared to bolster the independent Shia in Lebanon, Assad is returning to the U.S. on Aprl 28 for the second time this year to lobby for upport in New York and Washington. He plans to travel for several weeks as part of a small delegation of LOG members, although he has not yet identified who will join him. He explained that he is returning to the U.S. rather than going to other countries because he does not believe that Saudi Arabia and Europe are ready to confront Iran. WIDENING HIS SUPPORT -------------- ¶6. (C) Assad agreed that it is important to work with other independent Shia figures in Lebanon, but lamented that not everyone is willing to publicly criticize Hizballah. Believing that time is of the essence, he said that LOG needed to press forward, and others would make up their minds to join or not. He told us that he has very good relations with March 14 leaders, except with majority leader Saad Hariri, which he attributes to Saudi influence over Saad. ¶7. (C) The Saudis are interested in his movement, Assad added, but are stalling. (Comment: We believe Saudi Arabia is acting cautiously in this matter, avoiding confronting Hizballah so as not to stir up its own Shia population -- an impression Assad also received from his discussions with BEIRUT 00000456 002 OF 002 Saudi Ambassador Abdel Aziz Khoja. End comment.) Assad reported that Khoja phoned him after his January U.S. trip, and said that the Kingdom would invite Assad for a visit, but this has not yet materialized. COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) Assad promised to send us his list of 22 LOG board members and their biographies. Since, as we have previously reported, we hear he refuses to cooperate with other anti-Hizballah Shia figures, we will be interested to learn more about who is joining forces with him. We question why he implores with us that time is of the essence, yet is planning another trip to the U.S. instead of focusing on gaining support on the ground. We also wonder whether high level visibility in the U.S. would help or hurt him in his quest to convert Amal and Hizballah supporters to his side. End comment. SISON