LEBANON: PATRIARCH DISINCLINED TO SUPPORT CABINET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000402 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER DEPT PASS TO EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SY LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: PATRIARCH DISINCLINED TO SUPPORT CABINET EXPANSION BEIRUT 00000402 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Maronite Patriarch Sfeir continues to prioritize electing a president above all else, including expanding or reshuffling the cabinet, ideas to which he was lukewarm. He expressed his disapproval over how the invitation to the Arab League summit was delivered to Lebanon. In addition to his usual lamentations of Syrian and Iranian intervention and Christian emigration, the Patriarch was particularly consumed with the division of the Maronite community, to which he attributed his reluctance to support any changes to the cabinet. He noted the importance of the Arab League summit to Lebanon, suggesting that the current calm could end after the summit. Parliamentary elections cannot take place if there is no president, the Patriarch warned, and said that any new electoral law should aim to limit the ability to buy votes. End summary. ¶2. (C) Ahead of the upcoming Easter holiday, the Charge, accompanied by PolOff, visited Maronite Patriarch Sfeir on March 18 in Bkirke. WARY OF A CHRISTIAN-LED DELEGATION TO THE ARAB LEAGUE SUMMIT -------------- ¶3. (C) The Patriarch expressed his disapproval that the invitation to the March 29-30 Arab League summit was delivered to Foreign Minister Fawzi Salloukh purposefully when Prime Minister Fouad Siniora was out of the country. (Note: Salloukh is resigned yet continues to carry out some of his official duties. End note.) Responding to the idea that a Christian-led delegation attend the summit, the Patriarch said he was concerned about how Syria would react and that it was important that Syria accepts any Lebanese delegation. NO CABINET CHANGES WITHOUT FULL MARONITE SUPPORT -------------- ¶4. (C) Emphasizing the importance of electing a president above all else, the Patriarch acknowledged that changes to the cabinet would be valuable, but could not be implemented without an elected president. Clarifying his hesitancy on cabinet expansion, he said, "The opposition does not approve." At the mention of Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun's name, the Patriarch shook his head in resignation saying, "He's a Maronite! He has his own ideas." He expressed his concern that the Maronite community is divided, and relayed that he had been solicited by the recent delegation of Arab MPs in Beirut to unite the Maronites, but that he did not see how he could. ¶5. (C) The Patriarch called Lebanese Armed Forces Commander Michel Sleiman a wise man for staying out of the current political bickering. He remains the consensus candidate, Sfeir said, adding that to look for another candidate at this point would be difficult. CALM BEFORE THE STORM? -------------- ¶6. (C) The Patriarch attributed the current calm to an anticipation of the Arab League summit, suggesting that it could be followed by street fighting, more assassinations, or an Israeli attack. He lamented the Christian emigration from Lebanon as well as Iraq, and said there is no one left in the predominately-Christian district of Jezzine because everyone is abroad or in Beirut because of the economy. He noted Syrian and Iranian intervention as the cause of Lebanon's problems, adding that it is not only Hizballah which is buying up land; the Palestinians are also purchasing land in the Christian area of Jbeil. SMALLER DISTRICTS ARE MORE EQUITABLE -------------- ¶7. (C) One of the major problems with the current electoral law, according to the Patriarch, is the ability for candidates to buy votes. With smaller qadas (districts) and BEIRUT 00000402 002.2 OF 002 only two to three candidates per district, he reasoned that it is more difficult for this to occur. He said he does not anticipate how the parliamentary elections can take place in 2009 if there is no president. TIMES ARE A'CHANGING -------------- ¶8. (C) More than once, the Patriarch said that the current political impasse is unprecedented in Lebanon. Before, he explained, there were only two Christian leaders, former Prime Minister and President Emile Edde and former President Bechara Khoury. Now, however, there are Maronites allied with Hizballah and others allied with majority leader Saad Hariri (who is Sunni). The Christians are allying with Hizballah out of self-interest rather than national or Christian interests. Even the language has a different tone these days, he complained, saying that today's language is much more harsh. Another difference is the influence of other countries and external religious leaders on the Lebanese, he said. Sighing, he concluded, "We must wait and see." SISON