LEBANON: PATRIARCH DISINCLINED TO SUPPORT CABINET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000402

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER
DEPT PASS TO EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SY LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: PATRIARCH DISINCLINED TO SUPPORT CABINET
EXPANSION

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Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Maronite Patriarch Sfeir continues to prioritize
electing a president above all else, including expanding or
reshuffling the cabinet, ideas to which he was lukewarm. He
expressed his disapproval over how the invitation to the Arab
League summit was delivered to Lebanon. In addition to his
usual lamentations of Syrian and Iranian intervention and
Christian emigration, the Patriarch was particularly consumed
with the division of the Maronite community, to which he
attributed his reluctance to support any changes to the
cabinet. He noted the importance of the Arab League summit
to Lebanon, suggesting that the current calm could end after
the summit. Parliamentary elections cannot take place if
there is no president, the Patriarch warned, and said that
any new electoral law should aim to limit the ability to buy
votes. End summary.


2. (C) Ahead of the upcoming Easter holiday, the Charge,
accompanied by PolOff, visited Maronite Patriarch Sfeir on
March 18 in Bkirke.

WARY OF A CHRISTIAN-LED DELEGATION
TO THE ARAB LEAGUE SUMMIT
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3. (C) The Patriarch expressed his disapproval that the
invitation to the March 29-30 Arab League summit was
delivered to Foreign Minister Fawzi Salloukh purposefully
when Prime Minister Fouad Siniora was out of the country.
(Note: Salloukh is resigned yet continues to carry out some
of his official duties. End note.) Responding to the idea
that a Christian-led delegation attend the summit, the
Patriarch said he was concerned about how Syria would react
and that it was important that Syria accepts any Lebanese
delegation.

NO CABINET CHANGES WITHOUT
FULL MARONITE SUPPORT
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4. (C) Emphasizing the importance of electing a president
above all else, the Patriarch acknowledged that changes to
the cabinet would be valuable, but could not be implemented
without an elected president. Clarifying his hesitancy on
cabinet expansion, he said, "The opposition does not
approve." At the mention of Free Patriotic Movement leader
Michel Aoun's name, the Patriarch shook his head in
resignation saying, "He's a Maronite! He has his own ideas."
He expressed his concern that the Maronite community is
divided, and relayed that he had been solicited by the recent
delegation of Arab MPs in Beirut to unite the Maronites, but
that he did not see how he could.


5. (C) The Patriarch called Lebanese Armed Forces Commander
Michel Sleiman a wise man for staying out of the current
political bickering. He remains the consensus candidate,
Sfeir said, adding that to look for another candidate at this
point would be difficult.

CALM BEFORE THE STORM?
--------------


6. (C) The Patriarch attributed the current calm to an
anticipation of the Arab League summit, suggesting that it
could be followed by street fighting, more assassinations, or
an Israeli attack. He lamented the Christian emigration from
Lebanon as well as Iraq, and said there is no one left in the
predominately-Christian district of Jezzine because everyone
is abroad or in Beirut because of the economy. He noted
Syrian and Iranian intervention as the cause of Lebanon's
problems, adding that it is not only Hizballah which is
buying up land; the Palestinians are also purchasing land in
the Christian area of Jbeil.

SMALLER DISTRICTS ARE MORE EQUITABLE
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7. (C) One of the major problems with the current electoral
law, according to the Patriarch, is the ability for
candidates to buy votes. With smaller qadas (districts) and

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only two to three candidates per district, he reasoned that
it is more difficult for this to occur. He said he does not
anticipate how the parliamentary elections can take place in
2009 if there is no president.

TIMES ARE A'CHANGING
--------------


8. (C) More than once, the Patriarch said that the current
political impasse is unprecedented in Lebanon. Before, he
explained, there were only two Christian leaders, former
Prime Minister and President Emile Edde and former President
Bechara Khoury. Now, however, there are Maronites allied
with Hizballah and others allied with majority leader Saad
Hariri (who is Sunni). The Christians are allying with
Hizballah out of self-interest rather than national or
Christian interests. Even the language has a different tone
these days, he complained, saying that today's language is
much more harsh. Another difference is the influence of
other countries and external religious leaders on the
Lebanese, he said. Sighing, he concluded, "We must wait and
see."
SISON