LEBANON: MARCH 14 CONSIDERING OPTIONS FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000397

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/GAVITO; DEPT PLEASE PASS TO EU MEMBER
STATES COLLECTIVE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/2018
TAGS: LE PGOV PREL SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: MARCH 14 CONSIDERING OPTIONS FOR
ATTENDING ARAB LEAGUE; LIKELY NOT PM SINIORA

Classified By: CDA Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.5 (b) (d)

SUMMARY
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1. (C) While it is unlikely that PM Siniora will attend the
Arab League Summit in Damascus, the ruling March 14 majority
is considering other options for some form of Lebanese
attendance to assure someone is there to defend the GOL in
any discussion of Lebanon-Syria relations. There is
disagreement within their ranks about whether or not the GOL
should attend at all. The cabinet will discuss the
attendance question on March 18 but likely not decide until
closer to the March 28-29 Summit date. End Summary.


2. (C) During a March 17 meeting, DCM and the PM's senior
aide Mohamed Chatah discussed Lebanon's attendance at the
Arab League Summit in Damascus, the OIC meeting in Dakar that
Chatah attended with PM Siniora and the prospect the GOL
would expand the cabinet after the Arab League meeting.
Charge Sison also discussed the Summit and cabinet issues
with March 14 leader Walid Jumblatt on March 16, at a
commemoration of the assassination of Jumblatt's father 31
years ago.

ARAB LEAGUE: ALTHOUGH NOT SINIORA, POSSIBLE LEBANON WILL SEND
SOMEONE
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3. (C) Chatah reviewed with DCM the views of the various
March 14 leaders and Arab League members about Lebanon
attending the Arab League Summit. Walid Jumblatt opposes and
publicly directed his three cabinet ministers to oppose.
Samir Geagea opposes and Saad Hariri is leaning against.
Amine Gemayal favors Lebanon attending. Most believe PM
Siniora should not attend and Chatah, though vague about
Siniora's own views, was firm that was highly unlikely
Siniora would attend. Chatah was confident that Lebanon's
allies Egypt and Saudi Arabia would not attend at the highest
levels, but probably would send FMs. Not surprisingly, Arab
League SYG Amr Moussa has urged Siniora to attend.


4. (C) Chatah reviewed the current Lebanese thinking about
attending. It is possible the GOL will want someone to
attend because of the prospect that there will be debate
about Lebanon-Syria relations and, Chatah said, "Bashar Asad
leads the discussion" if Lebanon is absent. Based on past
experience, the GOL is not confident Egypt or Saudi Arabia
would make Lebanon's case well. Options being discussed in
March 14 include sending a minister who is a Maronite
Christian, such as Justice Minister Charles Rizk, sending
Acting FM Tarek Mitri, who is not a Maronite and naming
former president and Maronite Amine Gemayal as a minister and
have him lead the delegation. The risk of these options is
that GOL representative will not have the stature to defend
Lebanon's interests in a debate with heads of state or
government. Another alternative is to have some Minister or
lower official deliver a speech at the Summit and propose a
separate meeting at which Lebanon would be on equal footing
with the others, such as a meeting of FMs in Cairo. On March
18, as the cabinet meeting was beginning, Charge confirmed
with Chatah that the GOL is still considering these ideas.



5. (C) Chatah was unperturbed about the fact that Syria had
invited Iran to attend the Summit and said it would it change
the Lebanese decision-making process.

NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AT OIC IN DAKAR
--------------


6. (C) There were no significant developments on Lebanon at
the recent OIC meeting in Dakar, Senegal, Chatah said.
Siniora and Chatah had bilateral meetings with Qatar, Oman,
UAE, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and others. They requested one with
Iran but never heard back. Chatah said the interlocutors
expressed a sense of "resignation" about the Lebanon
situation and the view that a resolution was linked to larger
regional issues, including the U.S. and Iran.

EXPANDING THE CABINET AFTER THE ARAB LEAGUE SUMMIT?
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7. (C) Leaders of March 14 are discussing taking some action
after the Summit if there is no movement on a Lebanese
president. Expanding the cabinet is the likely step, and

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Siniora is open to this, Chatah said. But different options
for expanding are under discussion. Walid Jumblatt told
Charge on March 16 he favors adding six persons spread over
several confessions. Chatah's view is to add ten new
members, increasing the cabinet from 24 to 34, to bring in
more Shia, Christians and others. A key pre-condition of any
expansion is Patriarch Sfeir's approval, and so far Sfeir has
resisted, apparently out of concern that expanding the
cabinet would prolong the vacancy in the presidency, a
Maronite position. (The Patriarch reiterated that concern
during March 19 meeting with Charge, septel). We will have
another opportunity to follow up on these issues during
Charge's scheduled meeting with Justice Minister Rizk on
March 20.
SISON