LEBANON: MARCH 14 CONSIDERING OPTIONS FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000397 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/GAVITO; DEPT PLEASE PASS TO EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/2018 TAGS: LE PGOV PREL SY SUBJECT: LEBANON: MARCH 14 CONSIDERING OPTIONS FOR ATTENDING ARAB LEAGUE; LIKELY NOT PM SINIORA Classified By: CDA Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.5 (b) (d) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) While it is unlikely that PM Siniora will attend the Arab League Summit in Damascus, the ruling March 14 majority is considering other options for some form of Lebanese attendance to assure someone is there to defend the GOL in any discussion of Lebanon-Syria relations. There is disagreement within their ranks about whether or not the GOL should attend at all. The cabinet will discuss the attendance question on March 18 but likely not decide until closer to the March 28-29 Summit date. End Summary. ¶2. (C) During a March 17 meeting, DCM and the PM's senior aide Mohamed Chatah discussed Lebanon's attendance at the Arab League Summit in Damascus, the OIC meeting in Dakar that Chatah attended with PM Siniora and the prospect the GOL would expand the cabinet after the Arab League meeting. Charge Sison also discussed the Summit and cabinet issues with March 14 leader Walid Jumblatt on March 16, at a commemoration of the assassination of Jumblatt's father 31 years ago. ARAB LEAGUE: ALTHOUGH NOT SINIORA, POSSIBLE LEBANON WILL SEND SOMEONE -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Chatah reviewed with DCM the views of the various March 14 leaders and Arab League members about Lebanon attending the Arab League Summit. Walid Jumblatt opposes and publicly directed his three cabinet ministers to oppose. Samir Geagea opposes and Saad Hariri is leaning against. Amine Gemayal favors Lebanon attending. Most believe PM Siniora should not attend and Chatah, though vague about Siniora's own views, was firm that was highly unlikely Siniora would attend. Chatah was confident that Lebanon's allies Egypt and Saudi Arabia would not attend at the highest levels, but probably would send FMs. Not surprisingly, Arab League SYG Amr Moussa has urged Siniora to attend. ¶4. (C) Chatah reviewed the current Lebanese thinking about attending. It is possible the GOL will want someone to attend because of the prospect that there will be debate about Lebanon-Syria relations and, Chatah said, "Bashar Asad leads the discussion" if Lebanon is absent. Based on past experience, the GOL is not confident Egypt or Saudi Arabia would make Lebanon's case well. Options being discussed in March 14 include sending a minister who is a Maronite Christian, such as Justice Minister Charles Rizk, sending Acting FM Tarek Mitri, who is not a Maronite and naming former president and Maronite Amine Gemayal as a minister and have him lead the delegation. The risk of these options is that GOL representative will not have the stature to defend Lebanon's interests in a debate with heads of state or government. Another alternative is to have some Minister or lower official deliver a speech at the Summit and propose a separate meeting at which Lebanon would be on equal footing with the others, such as a meeting of FMs in Cairo. On March 18, as the cabinet meeting was beginning, Charge confirmed with Chatah that the GOL is still considering these ideas. ¶5. (C) Chatah was unperturbed about the fact that Syria had invited Iran to attend the Summit and said it would it change the Lebanese decision-making process. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AT OIC IN DAKAR -------------- ¶6. (C) There were no significant developments on Lebanon at the recent OIC meeting in Dakar, Senegal, Chatah said. Siniora and Chatah had bilateral meetings with Qatar, Oman, UAE, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and others. They requested one with Iran but never heard back. Chatah said the interlocutors expressed a sense of "resignation" about the Lebanon situation and the view that a resolution was linked to larger regional issues, including the U.S. and Iran. EXPANDING THE CABINET AFTER THE ARAB LEAGUE SUMMIT? -------------- --- ¶7. (C) Leaders of March 14 are discussing taking some action after the Summit if there is no movement on a Lebanese president. Expanding the cabinet is the likely step, and BEIRUT 00000397 002 OF 002 Siniora is open to this, Chatah said. But different options for expanding are under discussion. Walid Jumblatt told Charge on March 16 he favors adding six persons spread over several confessions. Chatah's view is to add ten new members, increasing the cabinet from 24 to 34, to bring in more Shia, Christians and others. A key pre-condition of any expansion is Patriarch Sfeir's approval, and so far Sfeir has resisted, apparently out of concern that expanding the cabinet would prolong the vacancy in the presidency, a Maronite position. (The Patriarch reiterated that concern during March 19 meeting with Charge, septel). We will have another opportunity to follow up on these issues during Charge's scheduled meeting with Justice Minister Rizk on March 20. SISON