LEBANON: PEELING AWAY AOUN'S MPS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000351 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/GAVITO E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: PEELING AWAY AOUN'S MPS REF: A. BEIRUT 1483 ¶B. BEIRUT 1781 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) At a March 5 luncheon hosted by the Mayor of Zahle, Asaad Zoughaib, the Charge attempted to verify reports that the Zahle MPs, part of Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun's bloc, are willing to break the alliance. The Mayor repeatedly told the Charge that his close friend Elie Skaff, the head of Zahle's Popular Bloc, can be peeled away from Aoun. Despite these hints, the MPs have not yet acted on opportunities that would demonstrate their willingness to part with Aoun and support March 14. End summary. ¶2. (C) During a day-long tour of USAID-funded projects in Zahle on March 5, the Charge, accompanied by USAID Mission Director and PolOff, attended a luncheon hosted by Zahle Mayor Asaad Zoughaib. Also present at the 60-person lunch were local businessmen, community leaders, religious figures, and five Aoun-affiliated MPs: Elie Skaff, Camil Maalouf, Assem Araji, Hassan Yaacoub, and Salim Aoun. "YOU CAN PEEL AWAY AOUN" -------------- ¶3. (C) During the fall of 2007, Post reported that Skaff, head of Zahle's Popular parliamentary bloc, informed Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri that he would forgo supporting Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun as president in favor of a consensus candidate (Ref A). In November, during the lead up to former President Emile Lahoud's last days in office, Skaff publicly suggested that he would attend parliament and be part of a quorum even if the rest of Aoun's bloc refrained from participating (R B). On March 5, Mayor Zoughaib, seated on one side of the Charge, with his close friend Skaff seated on her other side, repeatedly whispered to the Charge that Skaff was willing to break away from Aoun. "TALK THE TALK BUT DON'T WALK THE WALK" -------------- ¶4. (C) Later that day, majority leader Saad Hariri's cousin and advisor Nader Hariri told the Charge that Skaff and his bloc's MPs "talk the talk but don't walk the walk." Nader relayed that March 14 had thought Araji, a Sunni MP, was a likely candidate to leave March 8, and requested that he sign a petition supporting the Special Tribunal to investigate the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. "How can he object to the Tribunal?" asked Nader. However, Araji did not seize what was thought to be an easy, non-controversial step to take in parting ways with Aoun, causing March 14 to lose hope in baiting Skaff's bloc. Nader concluded that there is less possibility than what the Mayor was suggesting. OR THEY DON'T EVEN TALK THE TALK -------------- ¶5. (C) Another MP at the lunch, Salim Aoun (no relation to Michel Aoun),was very clearly communicating the Aoun party line to PolOff. Sweating at times, the young MP took great pains to explain Aoun's rationale in demanding a blocking third in the cabinet, and to explain how a democracy operates differently in Lebanon than the U.S. ADDITIONAL PROMOTING OF SKAFF -------------- ¶6. (C) Mayor Zoughaib wanted to be sure the Charge took note of Skaff's importance. The Mayor informed her that no matter which direction his bloc goes, Skaff will be heading it. He quoted what has been said about Skaff's father, Joseph, one of the major landholders and political powers in the Bekaa valley, "If Joseph put a stick in the ground and said it was a candidate, the stick will be elected." COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) Skaff has influence over his bloc of five MPs, but no others. It is interesting that Skaff's longtime friend and BEIRUT 00000351 002 OF 002 political ally would so blatantly promote this potential split in Skaff's presence, suggesting that Skaff wished this information to be relayed to the Charge. However, Skaff has great antipathy for Saad Hariri because of a business dispute and other perceived slights. Even if he split from Aoun, his joining Hariri would a major surprise. SISON