LEBANON: ESTIMATED NUMBERS OF POTENTIAL EVACUEES

UNCLAS BEIRUT 000337 SIPDIS SIPDIS WASHINGTON PLEASE PASS TO SES-O/CMS AND TO JO-ANN HUNTER CA/OCS/ACS. E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: AEMR CASC CY AMGT LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: ESTIMATED NUMBERS OF POTENTIAL EVACUEES FOR BEIRUT NONCOMBATANT EVACUATION OPERATIONS ¶1. (SBU) In 2006 the USG evacuated approximately 15,000 American Citizens and their families from Lebanon during hostilities between Israel and the Lebanon-based group Hizballah. Embassy Beirut recognizes the importance of accurately forecasting the number of Americans in the country as it allows us and others to anticipate how many Americans might participate in any future evacuation. We have updated the F-77 document used to make this estimate (NOTE: the F-77 can be found on the unclassified intranet at http://ses.state.gov/f77-posts/viewreports.as px and on the classified SIPRnet at: http://ses.state.sgov.gov/f77/viewreports.asp x END NOTE). ¶2. (SBU) We estimate that there are 59,400 U.S. citizens in Lebanon. Attempting to come up with an accurate number of Americans in Lebanon is a difficult task; the vast majority of Americans in the country also hold Lebanese citizenship; this means that the Lebanese government does not count them. The GOL provides Embassy a breakdown by month of Americans that enter the country on their American passports, and from these data we estimate that the number of Americans who are in the country claiming only American citizenship at any given time is between 3500 and 7000 depending on the season. However, an informal survey of American citizens that came into the Embassy for routine services revealed that the number of dual nationals outnumbered those who held only a U.S. Passport by a ratio of 18 to 1. Our estimate of 59,400 citizens is based on this and is significantly higher than previous estimates. It is, however, important to note that not all American citizens in the country would participate in an evacuation. ¶3. (SBU) To provide logistics coordinators with an easier measure of potential evacuees we have created a number of scenarios that might necessitate an evacuation along with low, mid-range, and high estimates as to the number of evacuees. The number of evacuees we have listed is meant to be the total number of evacuees; as such, it includes not only American citizens in Lebanon, but their family members and third country nationals. Situation One: Limited Attack from Outside Neighbor -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Possible Scenario: Hizballah forces provoke Israeli forces who, in turn, conduct military operations in Lebanon. Israeli attacks are targeted at southern Lebanon and the southern suburbs of Beirut as well as targets of military value elsewhere in Lebanon (supply routes, airport etc.). Ths would be not unlike the Israeli attack of JulyAugust 2006. Estimated Number of Evacuees: LOW: 13,000 MID: 23,000 HIGH: 28,000 ¶5. (SBU) Rationale: The number of evacuees would likely be higher than in 2006 due to heightened concern among those in Lebanon that a second Israeli attack would be more brutal than the first. Furthermore, in 2006 thousands of people left the country with commercial carriers at their own expense; many left through Syria after hearing that they would be charged a substantial fee to be evacuated by the USG. All charges for the 2006 evacuation were eventually forgiven, so the assumption now among Amcits -- despite efforts to convince them of the contrary -- is that the USG will arrange for future evacuations free of charge. Situation Two: Civil War - Limited in Scope -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Possible Scenario: The political impasse in Lebanon grows and tensions between various political parties/religious groups reach a breaking point. Violence between the factions escalates and members of individual groups only feel safe in neighborhoods controlled by their faction. A defensive civil war ensues where groups fight to retain control of their neighborhoods. Estimated Number of Evacuees: LOW: 16,000 MID: 28,000 HIGH: 36,000 ¶7. (SBU) Rationale: Even a low intensity civil war would likely affect a greater number of people in the country than an incursion by a foreign power. For many, a civil war scenario would raise memories of Lebanon's 15-year long civil war 1975-90, in contrast to the month long 2006 Hizballah-Israel war. With the expectation that there might not be a speedy end to the violence, Americans would feel compelled to leave -- even if they owned property or had other ties to Lebanon. Situation Three: Civil War - Widespread in Scope -------------- -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Possible Scenario: The political impasse leads to a situation where Hizballah and their allies feel they can seize control of the country. Violence becomes widespread, with the more heavily armed Hizballah forces conducting incursions into other neighborhoods. Christian neighborhoods become divided based on political differences and violence is no longer between communities but within them. It becomes an "offensive civil war" with internally displaced persons and casualties numbering in the thousands. Estimated Number of Evacuees: LOW: 20,000 MID: 32,000 HIGH: 63,000 ¶9. (SBU) Rationale: We assess that a widespread civil war with thousands of casualties is not likely to occur. While there are tensions between political and religious groups in Lebanon, none is advocating annihilation of the other. However, if this unlikely situation was to occur, the number of American Citizens and their families in need of evacuation could be substantial. SISON