LEBANON: AOUN'S TAKE ON THE ARAB LEAGUE MEETINGS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000317 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: AOUN'S TAKE ON THE ARAB LEAGUE MEETINGS REF: A. BEIRUT 302 ¶B. BEIRUT 296 Classified By: DCM William Grant for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) representative Michel de Chadarevian, speaking for FPM leader Michel Aoun, said the Arab League initiative remains blocked over two issues: cabinet formation and electoral reform. He also alluded to two additional conditions Aoun might try to impose should those issues be resolved: a consensus on who the prime minister will be (implying that Aoun would not agree to majority leader Saad Hariri) and re-establishment of the Constitutional Council prior to electing a president. ¶2. (SBU) In a February 28 televised interview with popular political talk show host Marcel Ghanem, Aoun denied that Syria and Iran influence his thinking and agreed with Ghanem's assertion that Aoun continues to impose conditions on electing a president. End summary. NO AGREEMENT ON CABINET FORMATION, ELECTORAL REFORM -------------- ¶3. (C) Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) representative Michel de Chadarevian briefed POLOFF on February 27 on FPM leader Michel Aoun's version of the February 24-25 talks hosted by Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa. Agreeing with majority leader Saad Hariri that the cabinet formation remains an obstacle (Ref A),he repeated the FPM's call that the opposition get a blocking third in the cabinet. He refuted the argument that the majority should have a majority representation, saying that the cabinet should operate in the Lebanese tradition of consensus. Besides, he said, what decisions do March 14 leaders have in mind that they anticipate we would block? ¶4. (C) On electoral reform, de Chadarevian disagreed with Moussa's assessment that there was a basic understanding between the majority and the opposition (Ref B). Instead, Aoun is advocating a return to the 1960 law, while March 14 leaders Saad Hariri and head of the Phalange party Amine Gemayel are calling for a redistricting that Aoun will not support because it would affect the number of Christian votes. HINTING AT POSSIBLE FUTURE CONDITIONS -------------- ¶5. (C) de Chadarevian requested the meeting with poloff, apparently to urge that the U.S. call for the re-establishment of the 12-member Constitutional Council prior to electing a president. (Note: The Council was disbanded under the Siniora government. March 14 has been reluctant to discuss the issue because re-establishing the Council would present an opportunity for Aoun to formally contest the 11 parliamentary seats he believes should have gone to the opposition in the 2005 parliamentary elections. End note.) De Chadarevian also mentioned that it would only be fair to select a consensual prime minister, in addition to a consensual president, suggesting that Aoun would reject Saad's candidacy as prime minister. AOUN CONCEDES HE HAS NUMEROUS CONDITIONS -------------- ¶6. (C) In a February 28 televised interview with popular political talk show host Marcel Ghanem, Aoun reiterated that the opposition is not willing to elect a president unless it has what he called a "partnership," or 11 cabinet seats (a blocking third) in the cabinet. He denied that he is in any way influenced by Syria or Iran, while agreeing with interviewer Ghanem's assertion that he is repeatedly making conditions on electing a president. In line with de Chadarevian's inquiry about the Constitutional Council, Aoun said in the interview that its absence is a constitutional violation, possibly implying that this could be a future condition he will impose. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) De Chadarevian's remarks and Aoun's raising the BEIRUT 00000317 002 OF 002 issue of the Constitutional Council in his TV interview indicate that Aoun may still try to impose other conditions for an agreement with March 14 even if agreement is reached on electoral reform and cabinet formation. De Chadarevian did not convey a sense of urgency in electing a president. He mentioned that Aoun had suggested to Saad and Gemayel that they meet again, shrugging his shoulders while relaying that they had not responded. End comment. SISON