LEBANON: BERRI SAYS STILL NO AGREEMENT ON CABINET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000292 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/24/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PARM PINR SY IS LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: BERRI SAYS STILL NO AGREEMENT ON CABINET FORMATION, URGES CLEARER U.S. SUPPORT FOR ARAB LEAGUE INITIATIVE BEIRUT 00000292 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Michele Sison for Reasons: Sectio n 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Speaker Berri, commenting on Arab League SYG Amr Moussa's return to Lebanon in a last-ditch effort to resolve the political impasse before the February 26 parliamentary session to elect a president, said as of noontime on February 25, agreement still had not been reached on cabinet formation, though 10/10/10 provided the best solution. If Moussa failed to reach a breakthrough, Berri said he would postpone the session another two weeks to leave time to find a solution before the March 29 Arab League Summit in Damascus. He criticized SAUDI attempts to pressure Syria before the summit, and U.S. failure to clearly state its support for the Arab League initiative, warning that meanwhile the security situation in Lebanon is deteriorating. End summary. ¶2. (C) Charge Sison, accompanied by Pol/Econ Chief, met with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri at noon in his office in Ain el-Tineh on February 25. Berri advisors Ali Bazzi (AmCit) Ali Hamdan also attended the meeting, which was conducted in French. Berri had met twice with visiting Arab League SYG Amr Moussa, once immediately after his arrival in Beirut on February 24, and immediately prior to his MEETING with the Charge. BERRI FLOATS 10/10/10 -------------- ¶3. (C) Berri, who had just finished MEETING with visiting Arab League SYG Amr Moussa, said there was still no agreement on cabinet formation. 10/10/10 was the best solution (March 14 was still pushing 13/7/10) because it prevented either side from either making a decision or toppling the government on its own. March 14 has nothing to lose with this scenario, Berri argued, because it will have the prime minister, who alone sets the agenda for cabinet meetings, who must be present in order for the meetings to take place, and who must sign off on any decisions taken (unlike the president, whose decision not to sign can be overcome by the cabinet). Furthermore, if the prime minister resigns, the cabinet falls, whereas if the president resigns, parliament simply elects a new one. The majority already has everything, he concluded. ¶4. (C) The electoral law was another stumbling block. Although nearly everyone agreed on the need to adopt a system based on "qada" (small districts),there were wide differences in how the qada should be drawn up. He himself thought Lebanon should be divided into one or just a few large districts, with voting based on proportional representation, as a way to decrease confessionalism in the country. ¶5. (C) If Moussa failed to reach a breakthrough, Berri said, he would postpone the scheduled February 26 session of parliament another two weeks to allow one more chance before the March 29 Arab League Summit in Damascus. The exact date would fall after the March 5-6 Arab League Foreign Ministers meeting in Cairo, and, he laughed, not on March 8 or March ¶14. A BOAT WITH NO CAPTAIN... -------------- ¶6. (C) Reacting to press reports that SAUDI Arabia was pulling out investments from Lebanon and the SAUDI ban on travel there, Berri said this wa the first time this had occurred. He found it bizarre" that Arab countries were imposing travelrestrictions to Lebanon, while the Europeans and Americans were not. He agreed that it was an attempt to pressure the Syrians into a solution, but said it is the Lebanese who will pay. Lebanon was a "boat without a captain" and had been in this situation for more than a year, he said, but boycotting the Arab League Summit in Damascus was not the answer. The whole point of the summit is to fix problems he said; not going would be the equivalent of being BEIRUT 00000292 002.2 OF 002 sick but not going to the hospital. ...LOOKING FOR U.S. DIRECTION -------------- ¶7. (C) The U.S. needs to give clear support to the Arab League initiative, Berri stressed, referring to recent statements made by Iraq S/I Satterfield. The U.S. has limited its support to the election of a president, not the whole "basket" of issues, he complained. If the U.S. wants the initiative to succeed, it needs to push March 14 to be more flexible on some of the other issues, although this could be done privately rather than publicly. Furthermore, the U.S. should stop looking at Syria through "Iraq-shaded" glasses and instead separate Lebanon from regional issues and talk to Damascus. WHILE SECURITY SITUATION SINKS -------------- ¶8. (C) Lebanon is in a bad situation now, Berri continued, especially in terms of security. Shia-Sunni tensions are rising, and the situation in the south between Hizballah and Israel also is tense. We need our state institutions to work he said. The February 12 assassination of Hizballah military leader Imad Mugnieh further weighed on the security situation, he said, although he discounted its impact on the political situation. ON A LIGHTER NOTE -------------- ¶9. (C) On a lighter note, Berri recounted a recent episode of a political satire show on NBN (pro-Berri network),whereby characters playing Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea and March 14 leader Saad Hariri were asked whether they had met the new U.S. Charge d'Affaires. Geagea's reply was that already he didn't like her, because her name was "Michele." (Note: Numerous contacts have commented on the overabundance of "Michele's" on the Lebanese political scene, i.e., Geagea arch-foe Michel Aoun, Michel Sleiman, Michel Edde, to name a but a few. End note.) SISON