LEBANON: UN SPECIAL COORDINATOR FOR LEBANON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000196 SIPDIS SIPDIS CAIRO PLEASE PASS TO A/S DAVID WELCH; NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/HARDING STATE PASS TO EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/09/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL UNSC PTER SY IS LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: UN SPECIAL COORDINATOR FOR LEBANON PESSIMISTIC ABOUT POLITICAL PROGRESS REF: BEIRUT 195 Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Geir Pedersen, who ends his three year tour of duty in Lebanon next week, provided a frank and fairly pessimistic assessment of Lebanon's state of affairs for the newly arrived Ambassador. In his opinion, the current political crisis will last for months, and the situation was becoming more tense along the "Blue Line" border between Israel and Lebanon. He said that, while neither party seems to want a repeat of the 2006 war, Hizballah may again start to act somewhat provocatively. "This should be watched very carefully," said Pedersen. In conclusion, he told us that there could be a six month gap before his replacement, still unnamed, arrives in Beirut. End Summary. ¶2. (U) On February 9, UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Geir Pedersen, and his political aide, Rami Shehadeh, joined the Ambassador, DCM, Pol/Econ Chief and Special Assistant for coffee. Pedersen, who does not seem unhappy to be leaving Beirut for Oslo and a return to the Norwegian Foreign Ministry, provided insight for the Ambassador on a number of topics. The Opposition No Longer Trusts Sleiman -------------- ¶3. (C) The Ambassador provided an overview of her conversation with Arab League SYG Amr Moussa earlier that morning (reftel). Pedersen was not surprised to hear that no major breakthroughs had been made during Moussa's most recent visit to Beirut. Pedersen predicts that the political vacuum may continue for months and commented that many think the opposition is willing to wait until the November 2008 U.S. presidential elections. "This is a dangerous game they are playing," said Pedersen. "They had better hope that no crisis or disaster catches them unprepared." ¶4. (C) Pedersen is convinced that the opposition no longer wants LAF Commander General Michel Sleiman to become president. Pedersen thinks that Aoun has concluded that a popular Christian figure like Sleiman as president will erode his own core constituency of supporters. "He'll never let that happen," said Pedersen. However, he did think that Sleiman had not quite managed to keep himself above the political fray in recent months. Pedersen heard from a number of sources that Sleiman threatened to run candidates against Aoun loyalists in key districts during the 2009 parliamentary elections. Pedersen does not know if this was a direct threat by Sleiman or an interpretation by the Aounists, but it has done nothing to calm the fears of Aoun and his supporters. ¶5. (C) Pedersen said Hizballah has also become increasingly more suspicious of Sleiman. When March 14 chose Sleiman as their consensus candidate, it came as a tremendous surprise. According to Pedersen, "They concluded that Saad (Hariri) had just bought him outright." Sleiman's recent refusals to provide concessions to the opposition before the election seem to be fueling this theory. Hariri's recent speech to drum up public support for demonstrations on February 14th to mark the third anniversary of his father's assassination have also been interpreted as a "Sunni threat against the Shia." SYG's Office Not Ready for Tribunal Announcement -------------- ¶6. (C) Pedersen who had just returned the previous evening from consultations at UN headquarters, said that the UN SYG will not be ready to announce full funding for the Tribunal on February 14th. While recent pledges have indeed increased the total number of funds, the SYG cannot publicly confirm the pledges until the money is actually transferred to NY accounts. In addition, the total number of pledges still falls short of the USD 50 million target for the first year. ¶7. (C) Pedersen told us that the compensation package for BEIRUT 00000196 002 OF 003 Lebanese judges to the Tribunal also needed to be finalized. There will then be a consultation phase, because the SYG's office does not want the package to be publicly rejected by judges once it is released. Situation is Tense Along the Southern Border -------------- ¶8. (C) Pedersen told us that UNIFIL had almost completed an investigation of the cross-border shooting incident on February 3, which left one person dead. "At this time, there is no evidence that there were any shots fired from the Lebanese side of the border," he said. Pedersen reminded us that this was the same area where Israeli soldiers had been kidnapped in 2006. Any movement on the Lebanese side of this portion of the border makes the Israeli military extremely nervous. ¶9. (C) From discussions with both Hizballah and the Israelis, Pedersen is convinced that neither side wants a repetition of the 2006 war. However, after 18 months of relative peace and respect for the provisions of UNSCR 1701 by Hizballah, Pedersen thinks this could be on the verge of changing. Hizballah has recently gone public with statements promising retaliatory action against Israeli offenses. Pedersen also highlighted a recent statement from Osama Bin Laden, which criticized Hizballah's recent "cooperative" profile and called them "the protectors of the Crusaders." Finally, he told us that progress on Annapolis conference goals will likely produce defensive reactions in Tehran and Damascus which could play out along the Lebanese border. Pedersen said this whole situation needed to be watched very carefully in the weeks to come. He confirmed that he was definitely more pessimistic about this issue now than only a few weeks ago. ¶10. (C) To improve the situation, Pedersen said that there must be a real breakthrough on the issue of prisoner exchanges. He thinks Hizballah may have been holding out on providing "proof of life" or a compromise in the hopes of creating domestic political pressure on Israeli PM Olmert. Pedersen hopes this line of thinking will disappear now that Olmert has "survived" the issuance of the Winograd Report assessing the war in 2006. Pedersen also hopes that completion of the UN's demarcation of the Blue Line will lead to further stability. Finally, he said that the Israelis had recently released some targeting data for the cluster bombs. If this proves to be accurate and useful data, Pedersen considers it an important development. German Project Troubled, But Need to Also Maintain Pressure on the GOL -------------- ¶11. (C) Pedersen agreed with donor criticisms of the German management of the Northern Border Pilot Project (NBPP). Clearly, their self-defined roles as advisors vs. coordinators and mentors was causing probems here on the ground and pressure should be mantained on the Germans to improve their performace. However, Pedersen also thought that pressure should be equally applied to the GOL to live up to their commitments on this project. The Common Border Force (CBF) has not become a truly integrated inter-agency endeavor and until there is progress on key GOL coordination issues, such as inter-agency intelligence sharing, results on the ground will be limited. Pedersen wants to keep all parties focused on implementation of UNSCR 1701. "You pressure the Lebanese security agencies and I will pressure Hizballah to keep their end of the bargain." Finally, Pedersen said that arms smuggling into Lebanon will only stop if a political decision is taken in Tehran and Damascus. He thinks the Israelis are well aware of this reality. However, he said that any progress on the Lebanese side of the border should be viewed positively. ¶12. (C) In a separate meeting on February 8, Special Assistant and Shehadeh discussed the German border project in greater detail. Shehadeh and his colleagues will likely recommend that a second Lebanese International Border Assessment Team (LIBAT) be dispatched in June 2008 to prepare a second report (one year after the original) on the border situation. BEIRUT 00000196 003 OF 003 Don't Forget the Sheba'a Farms -------------- ¶13. (C) Finally, Pedersen urged the Ambassador to work with Washington to keep the Sheba'a Farms issue on the agenda for political discussions. Saying that this issue would not go away, he believes it is important to at least show that there is a continuous diplomatic process in place. "A solution may be hard to find, the process is important, as well." He noted that Hizballah certainly had not forgotten the issue. He said it had been their habit to shoot minor munitions into the area periodically, referring to them as "reminder missions." Possible Long Gap at the UN Office -------------- ¶14. (C) After his recent meetings in New York, Pedersen confirmed that his successor still had not been named. While not specifying a name, he told us that the leading candidate could not be on the ground for at least six months. He has urged that UN Headquarters develop a regular system of high-level visitors to Beirut and/or temporary replacements to maintain the UN's profile here in Lebanon. He told us that Mike Moller, currently serving in Cyprus, had been suggested as a temporary replacement but may reject the offer as he is still hoping for the permanent assignment. UNDP Director Marta Ruedes will hold the "Acting" title, but Shehadeh and his colleagues in the political section will still continue the day-to-day duties, which include consultations with Hizballah. SISON