LEBANON: AN ENTHUSIASTIC JUMBLATT TALKS ELECTORAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001800

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S HOOK, PDAS WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YEARGER/MCDERMOTT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/24/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER SY LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: AN ENTHUSIASTIC JUMBLATT TALKS ELECTORAL
POLITICS WITH DAS HALE

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison, for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Druze leader Walid Jumblatt received visiting NEA
Deputy Assistant Secretary David Hale, Ambassador, and NEA
Lebanon Desk Officer Matthew Irwin on December 18. Jumblatt
delved into the details of intra-March 14 discussions on
electoral strategy and candidate selection. He agreed that
the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) had no need for Russian MiGs,
but said Moscow's offer provided a helpful morale boost to
the LAF and March 14. End summary.

ELECTORAL ENGINEERING
--------------


2. (C) Jumblatt described progress in forging March 14
agreement on an electoral strategy and unified slate of
candidates for the 2009 parliamentary elections. In Baabda,
where Michel Aoun is strong and will be buoyed by a
significant number of Shia votes, March 14 had agreed that
its voters should back a slate of "independent and credible
Christian candidates" including Edmond Gharios (son-in-law of
political boss Michel Murr) and Salah Honein. "We can win
Baabda if we get 55 percent of Christian votes."


3. (C) Kesrwan, on the other hand, was "not yet fixed," with
a mixture of March 14-affiliated and independent but March
14-leaning candidates vying for the support of March 14
voters. March 14 has identified several independent
Christians such as Mansour Ilbon and Neemat Frem (who
continues to prevaricate on his candidacy) to back, but these
candidates are insisting that March 14 stalwarts Samir
Geagea, leader of the Lebanese Forces, and Amine Gemayel,
head of the Kataeb party, not run their own candidates
alongside the independents. In Ashrafiyeh (Beirut one),
Jumblatt said that Nayla Tueni (daughter of assassinated
An-Nahar editor and publisher Gibran Tueni) would run "and do
well." Jumblatt discounted the possibility of peeling the
Armenian Tashnaq party away from March 8. "The Armenians are
hopeless, but we have to try."


4. (C) On the Druze heartland of the Chouf mountains,
Jumblatt reiterated his position that Dory Chamoun (of
Jumblatt's Progressive Socialist Party) was "entitled" to a
seat in parliament, and that George Adwan (of the Lebanese
Forces) should stand aside, saying he'd asked Saad Hariri to
help resolve the issue. He also noted he would continue
meeting rival Druze leader Talal Arslan to preserve the peace
in the Chouf, saying the Syrians were working actively,
including via Wiam Wahhab, to instigate intra-Druze feuding.


5. (C) According to Jumblatt, President Sleiman has not yet
decided whether to back his own slate of candidates. "He
doesn't want to fail." Jumblatt said March 14 had promised
to support any candidates backed by Sleiman, but that Sleiman
"wants to check with March 8." In response to a question
from Hale on the explanation for Michel Aoun's popularity,
Jumblatt said that Lebanese Christians are scared. "Aoun
comforts them. And his friends Michel Samaha (former
pro-Syrian Information Minister) and Hagop Pakradounian
(Tashnaq MP) are still pushing the idea of an alliance of
minorities to protect the Christians." "And the idea that
it's safer to be with the Syrians than against them," Hale
added, eliciting a nod from Jumblatt.


6. (C) On the premiership, Jumblatt noted he'd been
"intrigued" by former PM Najib Mikati's remarks with former
U.S. President Jimmy Carter during Carter's recent visit to
Beirut, in which the rather strong Syrian-aligned Mikati
called Hizballah an unacceptable "state-within-a-state."
"He's careful," said Jumblatt, "and a wheeler-dealer. He'll
be prime minister in a March 8 government." Jumblatt also
mentioned rumors that Hizballah was willing to accept Saad
Hariri as head of a unity government, saying, "This is a
smart move by Hizballah, but a trap for Saad." Asked by DAS

BEIRUT 00001800 002 OF 002


Hale whether March 14 would join a national unity government
in the event of a March 8 victory, Jumblatt responded, "I
think so. To leave them on their own would be unwise."

MIG MALAISE
--------------


7. (C) "Do we need MiGs? No." Jumblatt said in reference to
Russia's recently announced offer to provide 10 MiG-29s to
the LAF. Hale responded that while the United States had
always sought international support for the LAF, "this wasn't
what we had in mind." Jumblatt agreed, but noted that the
MiG offer had boosted LAF morale, and that they would help
deter violence in Lebanon's Palestinian refugee camps, citing
as historical precedent the LAF's 1973 use of fighter jets to
bomb Palestinian militants in the camps. "The M-60 tanks
would be more helpful, but Sleiman says they cost $10M each
to refurbish," Jumblatt said. (Note: We corrected Jumblatt
on the cost of the tanks -- slightly less than $2M each --
but this was the second time we'd heard a misquoted price
attributed to Sleiman cited as reason to reconsider the M-60
deal. End note.)

SECURITY ISSUES
--------------


7. (C) "Speaking of the camps, the situation is dangerous.
(Hizballah Minister of Labor Mohamad) Fneish is supposed to
be pro-Palestinian, but he won't let them work," said
Jumblatt, referring to the Ministry of Labor's refusal to
grant Lebanon's Palestinian refugees work permits that could
help alleviate the economic hardships widely viewed as
contributing to insecurity in the camps. Jumblatt noted that
Hizballah security official Wafiq Safa continued to liaise
with the LAF's Shi'a Deputy G2 Abbas Ibrahim, and said he did
not expect Hizballah to instigate violence before the
elections. On leadership dynamics within the Internal
Security Forces (ISF),Jumblatt praised Wissam Hassan, the
Hariri-aligned head of the ISF's Information Branch, but said
he was an "upstart" who challenged the authority of ISF
Commander General Ashraf Rifi.

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) A bright-eyed Jumblatt interrupted lunch to return to
parliament for a second round of voting on Constitutional
Council candidates, literally jumping out of his seat and
jogging out the door after receiving a call from advisor
Marwan Hamadeh He seemed pleased, even proud, that March 14
had begun to act as a proper majority during recent
parliamentary debate on the Constitutional Council and
budget. His renewed enthusiasm for political strategizing
and the minutiae of electoral politics indicated to us that
March 14 was increasingly confident and well organized, and
that Jumblatt, a critical March 14 leader, is indeed
beginning to shake off the effects of the
Hizballah-instigated violence of May 2008.


9. (U) DAS Hale has cleared this message.

SISON