LEBANON: GEAGEA DESCRIBES SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001799 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO A/S HOOK, PDAS WARLICK P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/24/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV MASS IS SY LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: GEAGEA DESCRIBES SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Lebanese Forces (LF) head Samir Geagea received visiting NEA Deputy Assistant Secretary David Hale, Ambassador, and NEA Lebanon Desk Officer Matthew Irwin on December 19. Geagea detailed progress in March 14's electoral preparations, including a plan to back independent Christian candidates in Baabda and reach out to non-March 14 Sunnis in Akkar. Geagea had harsh words for Lebanon's Internal Security Forces, but discounted U.S. and Israeli concerns over a Russian offer of 10 MiG-29s to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). Finally, Geagea speculated on a growing connection between events in Gaza and Hizballah's regional "resistance" strategy. End Summary. ELECTIONEERING -------------- ¶2. (C) DAS Hale shared his impression that March 14 electoral preparations had progressed since his October visit, with Saad Hariri and Walid Jumblatt noticeably more focused. Geagea agreed, saying things were proceeding slowly but steadily. "The polls are good for March 14, but the reality on the ground is even better. The results of the student and syndicate elections (viewed by some as barometers for parliamentary elections) have all been good or excellent. And March 14 is well financed, though the Lebanese Forces could always use more money." Geagea noted that, while committed to forging a unified slate of candidates, March 14 may not announce all candidates in all districts simultaneously. "We may announce some names here, some names there. We are thinking tactically. We have to worry about security." ¶3. (C) Geagea averred that rival Christian leader and head of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) Michel Aoun's November trip to Damascus had sapped his popular support. "Aoun is weak. The Christians can't digest his embrace of Syria, especially his returning from Damascus empty-handed." Geagea speculated that Aoun may believe the Syrians will help him win Christian seats in the south (Note: Aoun is allied with Amal in the South. End note.) by pressing Hizballah and Shi'a Speaker of Parliament and Amal party leader Nabih Berri to include FPM candidates on their slates in districts such as Zahleh and Marjayoun. "But I don't understand this trip to Damascus, and I don't understand why Hizballah isn't giving him better guidance. They're smarter than he is." ¶4. (C) In the northern Akkar district, Geagea is trying to convince Saad Hariri to back local heavyweights such as Issam Farres and Mikhael Daher who, while not card-carrying March 14 members, would "adopt the March 14 line" if elected. "Winning Akkar means dropping people who stood with us during the Cedar Revolution such as Hadi Hobeich, in favor of stronger candidates," Geagea said. In the FPM stronghold of Baabda where March 14 had decided not to run its own March 14-branded slate, Geagea claimed he had been entrusted with the selection of "strong, independent Christian candidates," naming Salah Honein and Edmond Gharios as two examples. ¶5. (C) Turning to media coverage of candidates and the elections, Geagea said, "We have a big problem with LBC (the formerly LF-controlled Lebanese Broadcasting Corporation). Pierre Daher (LBC owner) is using the station against us, covering all the March 14 candidates but ours. This is a problem, because the elections hinge on the Christians, and we have no media voice." Geagea described abortive attempts to revive a competing Christian mouthpiece owned by the Murr family, Murr TV (MTV),noting that while Saad Hariri and the Saudis were imploring Pierre Daher to cover LF candidates, he himself was working with the Murr family to try to raise $30M needed to reopen MTV while continuing to press a long-standing legal suit against LBC's management. "We won't drop it." BEIRUT 00001799 002 OF 002 CONCERN OVER SECURITY FORCES -------------- ¶6. (C) Geagea interrupted DAS Hale's comment that under Interior Minister Ziad Baroud's capable leadership, the Internal Security Forces (ISF) seemed to be taking election security seriously, saying, "The ISF is incompetent." Geagea also vented frustration at LAF officer appointments, especially in Beirut. "They're all Aoun or Hizballah people." Geagea criticized the LAF for not working proactively to prevent violence. "Suleiman Franjieh's (head of the opposition Christian militia-cum-political-party Marada, centered in the northern districts of Zgharta, Koura, and Batroun) people are riding around in armed convoys, stirring things up in the north. We've asked the LAF and ISF to put a stop to it, but they say it's a POLITICAL decision. And President Sleiman has a weakness for Franjieh. Please press him to do something about it." Geagea further explained that Hizballah is able to avoid outright violence in seeking its POLITICAL aims in Lebanon because it has created a "culture of intimidation." ¶7. (C) "What about the MiGs?" asked DAS Hale, eliciting a smirk from Geagea, who quipped, "Here come the Russians!" Hale assured Geagea that the U.S. would take a neutral public position, but outlined U.S. concerns that the LAF neither needed nor could afford to maintain 10 MiG-29s, and that accepting them would complicate U.S. efforts to build support for the LAF in Congress and with the Israelis. Hale opined that the Russians had offered the MiGs to embarrass the United States, knowing that the LAF was frustrated with the slow pace of U.S. assistance. ¶8. (C) Geagea acknowledged DAS Hale's concerns, but said the MiG announcement provided a huge morale boost for the LAF and would not threaten the LAF's close relationship with the United States. "The LAF is western-minded. Do you think that by accepting these planes they'll become Russian-minded? No. Besides, we understand you're squeezed by the Israelis. So maybe you talked to the Saudis who talked to the Russians who agreed to give the LAF things you couldn't provide." ¶9. (C) Scoffing at Hale's speculation that Israel would come out harshly against the MiG deal, Geagea said it would take hundreds of MiGs, airborne early warning and control (AWACS) aircraft, and a decade of training for the LAF to threaten Israel. "Personally, I think the MiG deal strengthens the U.S. position in Lebanon. It's in line with U.S. support for the LAF and strengthens a U.S.-leaning Lebanese government," Geagea added. HIZBALLAH IN A REGIONAL CONTEXT -------------- ¶10. (C) "I'm concerned about Gaza," said Geagea. "There's something happening. Why didn't Hamas enter talks? And look at Nasrallah's speech and the demonstrations. Hizballah is trying to start something. Iran and Hizballah want to repeat the 2006 war, but not in Lebanon. Is Gaza the new resistance battlefield?" (Note: Earlier on December 19, Hizballah held demonstrations in Beirut's southern suburbs and southern Lebanese cities to protest Israel's economic blockade of Gaza, with Nasrallah calling for armed action "to liberate Palestine from the Jordan River to the sea." End note.) Hale assured Geagea that Israel "has options" for dealing with Gaza, but Geagea was unconvinced. "Hamas wouldn't be firing rockets again if they weren't prepared for an Israeli response." Geagea also noted that, for the first time, Hizballah had publicly impugned Egypt and Saudi Arabia. "There's something happening," Geagea repeated. ¶11. (U) DAS Hale has cleared this message. SISON