LEBANON: GEAGEA DESCRIBES SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001799

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S HOOK, PDAS WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/24/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV MASS IS SY LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: GEAGEA DESCRIBES SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison, for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Lebanese Forces (LF) head Samir Geagea received
visiting NEA Deputy Assistant Secretary David Hale,
Ambassador, and NEA Lebanon Desk Officer Matthew Irwin on
December 19. Geagea detailed progress in March 14's
electoral preparations, including a plan to back independent
Christian candidates in Baabda and reach out to non-March 14
Sunnis in Akkar. Geagea had harsh words for Lebanon's
Internal Security Forces, but discounted U.S. and Israeli
concerns over a Russian offer of 10 MiG-29s to the Lebanese
Armed Forces (LAF). Finally, Geagea speculated on a growing
connection between events in Gaza and Hizballah's regional
"resistance" strategy. End Summary.

ELECTIONEERING
--------------


2. (C) DAS Hale shared his impression that March 14 electoral
preparations had progressed since his October visit, with
Saad Hariri and Walid Jumblatt noticeably more focused.
Geagea agreed, saying things were proceeding slowly but
steadily. "The polls are good for March 14, but the reality
on the ground is even better. The results of the student and
syndicate elections (viewed by some as barometers for
parliamentary elections) have all been good or excellent.
And March 14 is well financed, though the Lebanese Forces
could always use more money." Geagea noted that, while
committed to forging a unified slate of candidates, March 14
may not announce all candidates in all districts
simultaneously. "We may announce some names here, some names
there. We are thinking tactically. We have to worry about
security."


3. (C) Geagea averred that rival Christian leader and head of
the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) Michel Aoun's November trip
to Damascus had sapped his popular support. "Aoun is weak.
The Christians can't digest his embrace of Syria, especially
his returning from Damascus empty-handed." Geagea speculated
that Aoun may believe the Syrians will help him win Christian
seats in the south (Note: Aoun is allied with Amal in the
South. End note.) by pressing Hizballah and Shi'a Speaker of
Parliament and Amal party leader Nabih Berri to include FPM
candidates on their slates in districts such as Zahleh and
Marjayoun. "But I don't understand this trip to Damascus,
and I don't understand why Hizballah isn't giving him better
guidance. They're smarter than he is."


4. (C) In the northern Akkar district, Geagea is trying to
convince Saad Hariri to back local heavyweights such as Issam
Farres and Mikhael Daher who, while not card-carrying March
14 members, would "adopt the March 14 line" if elected.
"Winning Akkar means dropping people who stood with us during
the Cedar Revolution such as Hadi Hobeich, in favor of
stronger candidates," Geagea said. In the FPM stronghold of
Baabda where March 14 had decided not to run its own March
14-branded slate, Geagea claimed he had been entrusted with
the selection of "strong, independent Christian candidates,"
naming Salah Honein and Edmond Gharios as two examples.


5. (C) Turning to media coverage of candidates and the
elections, Geagea said, "We have a big problem with LBC (the
formerly LF-controlled Lebanese Broadcasting Corporation).
Pierre Daher (LBC owner) is using the station against us,
covering all the March 14 candidates but ours. This is a
problem, because the elections hinge on the Christians, and
we have no media voice." Geagea described abortive attempts
to revive a competing Christian mouthpiece owned by the Murr
family, Murr TV (MTV),noting that while Saad Hariri and the
Saudis were imploring Pierre Daher to cover LF candidates, he
himself was working with the Murr family to try to raise $30M
needed to reopen MTV while continuing to press a
long-standing legal suit against LBC's management. "We won't
drop it."


BEIRUT 00001799 002 OF 002


CONCERN OVER SECURITY FORCES
--------------


6. (C) Geagea interrupted DAS Hale's comment that under
Interior Minister Ziad Baroud's capable leadership, the
Internal Security Forces (ISF) seemed to be taking election
security seriously, saying, "The ISF is incompetent." Geagea
also vented frustration at LAF officer appointments,
especially in Beirut. "They're all Aoun or Hizballah
people." Geagea criticized the LAF for not working
proactively to prevent violence. "Suleiman Franjieh's (head
of the opposition Christian militia-cum-political-party
Marada, centered in the northern districts of Zgharta, Koura,
and Batroun) people are riding around in armed convoys,
stirring things up in the north. We've asked the LAF and ISF
to put a stop to it, but they say it's a political decision.
And President Sleiman has a weakness for Franjieh. Please
press him to do something about it." Geagea further
explained that Hizballah is able to avoid outright violence
in seeking its political aims in Lebanon because it has
created a "culture of intimidation."


7. (C) "What about the MiGs?" asked DAS Hale, eliciting a
smirk from Geagea, who quipped, "Here come the Russians!"
Hale assured Geagea that the U.S. would take a neutral public
position, but outlined U.S. concerns that the LAF neither
needed nor could afford to maintain 10 MiG-29s, and that
accepting them would complicate U.S. efforts to build support
for the LAF in Congress and with the Israelis. Hale opined
that the Russians had offered the MiGs to embarrass the
United States, knowing that the LAF was frustrated with the
slow pace of U.S. assistance.


8. (C) Geagea acknowledged DAS Hale's concerns, but said the
MiG announcement provided a huge morale boost for the LAF and
would not threaten the LAF's close relationship with the
United States. "The LAF is western-minded. Do you think
that by accepting these planes they'll become Russian-minded?
No. Besides, we understand you're squeezed by the Israelis.
So maybe you talked to the Saudis who talked to the Russians
who agreed to give the LAF things you couldn't provide."


9. (C) Scoffing at Hale's speculation that Israel would come
out harshly against the MiG deal, Geagea said it would take
hundreds of MiGs, airborne early warning and control (AWACS)
aircraft, and a decade of training for the LAF to threaten
Israel. "Personally, I think the MiG deal strengthens the
U.S. position in Lebanon. It's in line with U.S. support for
the LAF and strengthens a U.S.-leaning Lebanese government,"
Geagea added.

HIZBALLAH IN A REGIONAL CONTEXT
--------------


10. (C) "I'm concerned about Gaza," said Geagea. "There's
something happening. Why didn't Hamas enter talks? And look
at Nasrallah's speech and the demonstrations. Hizballah is
trying to start something. Iran and Hizballah want to repeat
the 2006 war, but not in Lebanon. Is Gaza the new resistance
battlefield?" (Note: Earlier on December 19, Hizballah held
demonstrations in Beirut's southern suburbs and southern
Lebanese cities to protest Israel's economic blockade of
Gaza, with Nasrallah calling for armed action "to liberate
Palestine from the Jordan River to the sea." End note.)
Hale assured Geagea that Israel "has options" for dealing
with Gaza, but Geagea was unconvinced. "Hamas wouldn't be
firing rockets again if they weren't prepared for an Israeli
response." Geagea also noted that, for the first time,
Hizballah had publicly impugned Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
"There's something happening," Geagea repeated.


11. (U) DAS Hale has cleared this message.

SISON