LEBANON: TASHNAQ STILL SNUBBED BY HARIRI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001781 C O R R E C T E D COPY (TEXT THROUGHOUT) SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO A/S HOOK, PDAS WARLICK P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: TASHNAQ STILL SNUBBED BY HARIRI REF: BEIRUT 1722 BEIRUT 00001781 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) With visiting NEA DAS David Hale, Armenian Tashnaq SYG Hovig Mekhitirian noted his satisfaction with the new electoral law, laid out in the Doha agreement, because it allows the Armenians to vote for Armenian deputies (and not have their votes diluted by pro-March 14 Sunni voters),and it guarantees that one Armenian candidate will be from Tashnaq. Remarking that he hoped Tashnaq would resume its tradition of allying with the president, Mekhitirian said that Tashnaq's support for independent MP Michel Murr was firm. He added that while Tashnaq is "not March 8," it could not support March 14 because of its lack of a relationship with majority leader Saad Hariri. Mekhitirian also said that he hoped for a united Armenian community, noting that the three Armenian parties (the other two being allied with Hariri's Future Movement) meet regularly. End summary. NEW ELECTORAL LAW BENEFITS TASHNAQ -------------- ¶2. (C) Visiting NEA DAS David Hale and the Ambassador, accompanied by NEA/ELA Lebanon Desk Officer Matt Irwin and PolOff, met the Armenian Tashnaq SYG Hovig Mekhitirian, Tashnaq MP Hagop Pakradonian, and a third Tashnaq member at their headquarters in Bourj Hammoud on December 19. Hale stressed that the spring 2009 parliamentary elections are of critical importance, and that the U.S. wants to see a free and transparent electoral process. ¶3. (C) Agreeing, Mekhitirian expressed his desire that the elections occur on time. He noted his deep satisfaction with Interior Minister Ziad Baroud. Mekhitirian explained that the changes to the electoral law, agreed upon in Doha, benefit Tashnaq by allocating one Armenian seat to the opposition (Tashnaq) and one for the March 14 alliance for the Beirut second district. (Note: Previously, the Armenian seats in Beirut were part of Saad Hariri's Future Movement, because, under the previous districting system, the Beirut districts were primarily composed of Sunnis who voted for the Armenian deputies allied with Future, therein diluting the Armenian votes. With the new districting, there is an almost equal representation of Armenian, Shia, and Christian voters. End note.) TASHNAQ TO ALLY WITH THE PRESIDENT -------------- ¶4. (C) Criticizing the 2000 electoral law for disadvantaging the Armenians, Mekhitirian said Tashnaq's goal is to establish an independent Armenian bloc. He noted that his party is traditionally allied with the president, stressing that this means the institution, rather than the individual. Mekhitirian expressed his hope that Tashnaq once again would ally with the president. TASHNAQ "NOT MARCH 8," BUT CANNOT SUPPORT MARCH 14 -------------- ¶5. (C) Hale said that the U.S. supports the president and Lebanon's institutions, including the Lebanese Armed Forces and the Internal Security Forces, and that the U.S. would like to see those who support Lebanon's institutions prevail in the elections. Stating that Tashnaq's biggest problem with March 14 is its lack of a relationship with Saad Hariri, Mekhitirian insisted that Tashnaq could not ally with March 14 as long as this tension persisted. ¶6. (C) "We are not March 8, but we were obliged to ally with the opposition," he declared. He pointed out that Tashnaq does not always agree with Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun, and gave an example of when Tashnaq refused to participate in a 2006 strike called by Aoun. According to BEIRUT 00001781 002.2 OF 002 Mekhitirian, Aoun was becoming increasingly flexible, and has dropped his presidential aspirations. ¶7. (C) Remarking that Tashnaq had had an understanding with Saad Hariri's father, the late PM Rafiq Hariri, Mekhitirian said that everything changed after he was assassinated. Saad has since refused to meet indirectly or directly with Tashnaq, despite multiple Tashnaq attempts to seek such a meeting, Mekhitirian said. He affirmed that Tashnaq has a good relationship with independent MP Michel Murr. ARMENIAN PARTIES MEET REGULARLY -------------- ¶8. (C) Assessing that the Armenian community in Lebanon is faring relatively well despite the economic downturn, Mekhitirian said that the Armenians strive to remain as one community. He noted that Tashnaq meets every month with the other two Armenian political parties in Lebanon, both of which are allied with Future Movement and represent 15 percent of the Armenian community. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) Mekhitirian appeared less flexible regarding Tashnaq's electoral alliances than we witnessed in a meeting Pakradonian earlier in the month (reftel). While Pakradonian indicated that Tashnaq was still "available for courting," Mekhitirian demonstrated bitterness towards Hariri. It is possible he was posturing, with the hope that Hale and the Ambassador would urge Hariri to meet with Tashnaq, or he could carry a more hardline stance than Pakradonian. Nevertheless, other sources suggest that Tashnaq is not immovable. End comment. ¶10. (U) DAS Hale has cleared this cable. SISON