LEBANON: WITH DAS HALE, MARONITE PATRIARCH

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 001779

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO A/S HOOK, PDAS WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR KPAL LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: WITH DAS HALE, MARONITE PATRIARCH
PREDICTS A DIFFICULT TIME AHEAD

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Maronite Patriarch Sfeir fears a divided bloc of
Christian voters will lead to March 8 gains in the spring
parliamentary elections, but said his role was only to speak
out for the principles of freedom, and to not be "out front"
on delivering political messages. He was unsure if
Christians could put together an independent list of
candidates, and expressed frustration that Christian groups
were attacking each other over political agendas. Sfeir
offered little advice on how the GOL should deal with
Hizballah, and noted the long history and complex situation
of Palestinians in Lebanon. End Summary

DIFFICULTIES AHEAD
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2. (C) NEA Deputy Assistant Secretary David Hale, accompanied
by DCM, NEA/ELA Lebanon Desk Officer Matt Irwin and PolOff,
visited Patriarch Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir at his residence in
Bkirke December 18. Sfeir had a negative assessment of
general conditions in Lebanon, noting that over one million
Lebanese, mostly Christians, have emigrated from Lebanon
since 1975. Although he agreed with Hale's remark that the
Lebanese are a resilient people, Sfeir said the elections
could be a "very difficult time."

AOUN'S "PILGRIMAGE" TO
DAMASCUS
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3. (C) The Patriarch feared March 8 will make gains in the
spring parliamentary elections, primarily because opposition
leader Michel Aoun's actions create divisions among Lebanese
Christians. He thought Aoun's trip to Syria seemed more like
a "pilgrimage" than an official visit, and said the
truthfulness of Aoun's "manifestations" was hard to judge.
Sfeir remarked that Aoun is gaining power as leader because
"they have no other," but he believed Aoun would not win over
many undecided Christian voters. He was frustrated by
intra-Christian feuding, remarking that he was "nervous over
the squabbling," and when questioned about the potential for
an independent list of Christian candidates, Sfeir was unsure
there was time or enough political leadership to develop one
before the spring elections.

HIZBALLAH & SYRIA
--------------


4. (C) The Patriarch offered little in terms of a strategy
for dealing with Hizballah. He said there were no easy
solutions to the Hizballah problem: "Hizballah is a presence
in Lebanon, and will not give up its arms." On Syria, when
asked his opinion of its actions towards Lebanon, he remarked
without detail, that there were many problems with Syria and
that it was "easy for them to intervene."

PALESTINIAN ISSUE IS COMPLEX
--------------


5. (C) Assessing the situation of Palestinians in Lebanon
with sweeping generality, Sfeir commented on the complex
history of the Palestinians, noting that the Palestinians'
problems are "about more than one thing" and noted
pessimistically that for sixty years their problems have gone
unresolved.


6. (U) DAS Hale has cleared this cable.

SISON