LEBANON: WITH DAS HALE, MARONITE PATRIARCH

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 001779 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO A/S HOOK, PDAS WARLICK P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR KPAL LE SY SUBJECT: LEBANON: WITH DAS HALE, MARONITE PATRIARCH PREDICTS A DIFFICULT TIME AHEAD Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Maronite Patriarch Sfeir fears a divided bloc of Christian voters will lead to March 8 gains in the spring parliamentary elections, but said his role was only to speak out for the principles of freedom, and to not be "out front" on delivering political messages. He was unsure if Christians could put together an independent list of candidates, and expressed frustration that Christian groups were attacking each other over political agendas. Sfeir offered little advice on how the GOL should deal with Hizballah, and noted the long history and complex situation of Palestinians in Lebanon. End Summary DIFFICULTIES AHEAD -------------- ¶2. (C) NEA Deputy Assistant Secretary David Hale, accompanied by DCM, NEA/ELA Lebanon Desk Officer Matt Irwin and PolOff, visited Patriarch Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir at his residence in Bkirke December 18. Sfeir had a negative assessment of general conditions in Lebanon, noting that over one million Lebanese, mostly Christians, have emigrated from Lebanon since 1975. Although he agreed with Hale's remark that the Lebanese are a resilient people, Sfeir said the elections could be a "very difficult time." AOUN'S "PILGRIMAGE" TO DAMASCUS -------------- ¶3. (C) The Patriarch feared March 8 will make gains in the spring parliamentary elections, primarily because opposition leader Michel Aoun's actions create divisions among Lebanese Christians. He thought Aoun's trip to Syria seemed more like a "pilgrimage" than an official visit, and said the truthfulness of Aoun's "manifestations" was hard to judge. Sfeir remarked that Aoun is gaining power as leader because "they have no other," but he believed Aoun would not win over many undecided Christian voters. He was frustrated by intra-Christian feuding, remarking that he was "nervous over the squabbling," and when questioned about the potential for an independent list of Christian candidates, Sfeir was unsure there was time or enough political leadership to develop one before the spring elections. HIZBALLAH & SYRIA -------------- ¶4. (C) The Patriarch offered little in terms of a strategy for dealing with Hizballah. He said there were no easy solutions to the Hizballah problem: "Hizballah is a presence in Lebanon, and will not give up its arms." On Syria, when asked his opinion of its actions towards Lebanon, he remarked without detail, that there were many problems with Syria and that it was "easy for them to intervene." PALESTINIAN ISSUE IS COMPLEX -------------- ¶5. (C) Assessing the situation of Palestinians in Lebanon with sweeping generality, Sfeir commented on the complex history of the Palestinians, noting that the Palestinians' problems are "about more than one thing" and noted pessimistically that for sixty years their problems have gone unresolved. ¶6. (U) DAS Hale has cleared this cable. SISON