LEBANON: ON GHAJAR, UN SEES NEED TO ACT, SAYS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001770 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO A/S HOOK, PDAS WARLICK P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS LE SY SUBJECT: LEBANON: ON GHAJAR, UN SEES NEED TO ACT, SAYS UNIFIL Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Milos Strugar, UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) Senior Political Adviser said that because progress had stalled on UNIFIL's proposal that Israel transfer the northern half of Ghajar to Lebanese control, the UN was taking proactive steps to keep the proposal from floundering. The next step will be UN Special Coordinator on Lebanon (UNSCOL) Michael Williams' trip to Tel Aviv on December 21-23 to get first hand information from Israel on what Israel is willing to do on Ghajar. Following that, Williams will meet with Prime Minister Siniora. It is important that Siniora remain patient and not react negatively to the response Israel has presented so far, he stressed. Strugar opined that Hizballah is very focused on the spring parliamentary elections and not on military action. On the search for fugitive Fatah al-Islam (FAI) members in the Ain al-Hilweh Palestinian camp, Strugar cautioned that if Palestinian security forces do not capture extremist Abdel Awad soon, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) would take action to capture him. Strugar claimed Syria has been more forthcoming with intelligence to help capture terror cell suspects in northern Lebanon, which he attributed to Syrian concerns following the 2008 bombing in Damascus. End Summary GHAJAR: BALL IN UN COURT -------------- ¶2. (C) On December 17, Milos Strugar, UNIFIL Senior Political Advisor updated the DCM and PolMilOff on Ghajar, Hizballah, cross-border smuggling and the search for suspected terrorists in the Ain al-Hilweh camp. UNIFIL PolOff Cornelia Frank also attended. On Ghajar, Strugar explained that since the Israeli response of November 20 in which they neither rejected nor accepted the UNIFIL proposal for Israeli withdrawal from north Ghajar, the process had stalled. He added there was some work to do in understanding better the Israeli response, and that UN Special Coordinator Michael Williams' December 21-23 trip to Tel Aviv would hopefully clarify the current Israeli position and Israel's' views about moving negotiations forward. Strugar reiterated that any talks will only be bi-lateral between the UN and each party respectively. He believed that Israel was foot-dragging on the Ghajar withdrawal in anticipation of its February elections for a new Prime Minister, as well as the spring 2009 Lebanese parliamentary elections. The Israelis want to see what the new Lebanese government will look like before agreeing on Ghajar, he thought. ¶3. (C) Strugar believed that any progress on the turnover of Ghajar would require Lebanese PM Siniora to maintain patience with Israeli intransigence, just as he did when the November 20 Israeli response did not meet his expectations for Israeli action. If Siniora expects the Israelis to accept a date of withdrawal soon "He won't get it" Strugar cautioned. He suggested the Israelis were evaluating the Ghajar withdrawal issue vis a vis Hizballah only and because of this single-focused view, they are not seeing the advantages of leaving Ghajar. Interestingly, he didn't believe the issue of north Ghajar residents maintaining their Israeli citizenship while living, eventually, on Lebanese soil was an obstacle in the negotiation process. He stated the issue had been sorted out technically and settled upon months ago. POLITICIANS NOT FIGHTERS HIZBALLAH FOCUSED, -------------- ¶4. (C) Emboffs asked about Hizballah. Strugar said that it was focused on the spring parliamentary elections. He assessed that Hizballah had no plans for military action and stressed that UNIFIL had limited Hizballah's capacity to operate openly in the UNIFIL AOR south of the Litani River. On security in the south and border area, Strugar said there were very few incidents between UNIFIL patrols and local BEIRUT 00001770 002 OF 002 residents. He declared that weapons smuggling was difficult to monitor and UNIFIL had not witnessed any arms smuggling, but he recognized that nearly every home in the UNIFIL area of operation probably had a weapon. He praised the activity of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) in working with UNIFIL, and said it had performed well when manning check-points and conducting searches. In response to a question on LAF intelligence gathering capacity, he said the Lebanese soldiers had the greatest ability to "really know," and the LAF was good at sharing their intel. THANK YOU FOR SMOKING -------------- ¶5. (C) Noting the low but consistent level of smuggling through the UNIFIL area of operation, Strugar emphasized that most activity was "commercial smuggling" with cigarettes, a highly trafficked item. He cautioned that strong action against smugglers would incite the local populace against UNIFIL and LAF personnel. TERRORIST FUGITIVES HAVE LITTLE TIME LEFT TO HIDE -------------- 6.(C) Strugar commented on security in the Palestinian camp Ain al-Hilweh (near Sidon, outside of UNIFIL's area of operation in south Lebanon). He thought the search for the extremist Abdel Awad who is believed to be the successor to Fatah al-Islam leader Shaker al-Abssi and is hiding in the camp, would not last long. If Awad was not caught by Palestinian security forces in the next few weeks, the LAF would take action to capture him, Strugar believed. Referring to security in the Beddawi camp near Tripoli in the far north , Strugar said the Syrians had been cooperative in sharing intelligence on Fatah al-Islam and other groups in the camp. He believed the September bombing in Damascus was the impetus to the SARG's cooperation. He added that the Syrians have a two groups of Palestinians working on intelligence gathering for them in the camp. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) On security in the Palestinian camps, Strugar never disclosed his sources of information and we don't normally hear news of LAF activity outside of the UNIFIL area of responsibility from UNIFIL interlocutors, but Strugar spoke with conviction about the LAF taking action if Abdel Awad was not found soon. SISON