LEBANON: MICHEL MURR WANTS TO LURE MARCH 8

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001732

SIPDIS

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: MICHEL MURR WANTS TO LURE MARCH 8
CANDIDATES FOR INDEPENDENT LIST

REF: A. BEIRUT 1729

B. BEIRUT 1722

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Greek Orthodox MP Michel Murr told the Ambassador
December 5 that he hoped to draw candidates away from the
opposition March 8 alliance to his independent candidate list
for the 2009 parliamentary elections. Not wanting to harm
Saad Hariri's March 14, Murr said he was not targeting
potential candidates from March 14 Christians. By his
calculation, Murr believed his list could win 12 seats, in
heavily contested districts. Murr appeared very confident
about the strength of his alliance with the Armenian Tashnaq
party, which is currently allied with March 8. Murr accused
the international community of "retreating" from its
professed goals of bolstering a moderate, sovereign Lebanon
by not providing enough financial support for these
candidates to compete with the opposition, whose financial
backing comes from Iran, he alleged. Murr advised the
incoming U.S. administration to quickly develop an action
plan for Lebanon and not to separate Lebanon from other
regional issues. End summary.

DRAWING CANDIDATES AWAY FROM MARCH 8
--------------


2. (C) Greek Orthodox senior political figure Michel Murr
told the Ambassador, PolOff, and Senior Political LES
December 5 that he was focused on trying to draw candidates
away from opposition leader Michel Aoun and the March 8
alliance. Murr emphasized that he did not wish to harm Saad
Hariri's March 14 coalition by drawing its candidates to his
independent list, such as current MP and head of Parliament's
Administration and Justice Committee Robert Ghanem. (Note:
Ghanem, and some other independent Christians allied with
March 14, have expressed frustration that Hariri would prefer
to impose candidates in Christian districts, rather than
allow the Christians to choose their own. End note.)

MURR'S ELECTORAL MAP
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3. (C) In a conversation focused almost exclusively on Murr's
electoral strategy, Murr claimed that his list of
independents could win at least 12 seats in the upcoming 2009
parliamentary elections. By his calculation, Murr said that
his list would win four seats in the Metn (his home
district),two in Kesrwan, one in Jbeil, one in Baabda, and
four other Armenian seats. These four districts would be
hotly contested, Murr opined. In areas such as Zahle, Murr
believed there would not be an independent list, but
Christian candidates not allied with Aoun would run on March
14's candidate list. MP Nayla Mouawad (allied with March
14),a representative of majority Christian Zgharta district,
reportedly visited Murr to ask his assistance to gain support
from two financiers living in the Metn to support Mouawad's
son, Michel, in his candidacy. Murr said he promised Mouawad
he would help, and also suggested that Mouawad also reach out
to the Saudis for additional financial support.


4. (C) Murr nonchalantly confirmed that he meets with
President Sleiman every week, ostensibly to discuss efforts
to build an independent list. (Note: To date, Murr is the
most vocal, publicly, urging Sleiman to form his own
parliamentary bloc. Others, such as independents allied with
March 14 in Kesrwan, for example, express similar desires
privately, but not publicly. End note.) However, Sleiman
would not show support for any candidates until one to two
months before the election, he said.

MURR OVERLY CONFIDENT ABOUT TASHNAQ?
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5. (C) Murr said he met December 4 with members of the
Armenian Tashnaq delegation who traveled to Syria on December

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1. The Tashnaq delegation, long-time allies of Murr, said
they told Syrian President Bashar Asad that Murr was their
only ally, Murr claimed. Murr cautioned the Ambassador not
to misinterpret Tashnaq's visit, as he expected several
Tashnaq candidates would be invited to join March 14's
candidate list. Hariri agreed to this arrangement prior to
his recent trip to Moscow, Murr said, but had not yet called
Murr or Tashnaq to sign an agreement. (Note: We think Murr
is exaggerating, or at least premature. Hariri told the
Ambassador December 4 that he did not trust Tashnaq and would
not ally with them (ref A). And a Tashnaq representative
told DCM that while they are loyal to Murr, they are not
convinced Murr should be head an any independent bloc (ref
B). End note.)


6. (C) He continued that Lebanon's Christian communities,
writ large, would oppose any leader determined to reconcile
with Syria, citing Michel Aoun's December 3-7 visit to
Damascus. Murr admitted that Syria also invited him to
visit, prior to inviting Tashnaq. However, he claimed he
would not consider the visit until after the elections.

INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY IS ABSENT,
MONEY NECESSARY TO COMPETE
--------------


7. (C) Murr complained that the international community was
slipping in its professed goal for Lebanese moderates to win
the elections. This "vacuum," Murr claimed would be
exploited by Syria. Following recent criticism of Saudi
Arabia by members of the opposition, Murr said he visited the
Saudi ambassador to Lebanon. The Saudi ambassador, according
to Murr, was "depressed." In Murr's view, if the Saudi
response was weak, the Syrians would only continue their
attacks, through the Lebanese opposition. Murr characterized
Saudi Arabia as being "neutralized," Egypt as "retreating,"
the Americans as "absent," and the French as "flirting with
the Syrians."


8. (C) In addition, Murr was convinced that independents,
such as those on his candidate list, and March 14 required
more financial support to compete successfully in the
elections. Alleged financial support from Saudi Arabia, he
said, was not being properly used. For his home district of
the Metn, Murr said he has allocated USD 10 million of his
own money to back his candidates. He was certain that Iran
had already allocated USD 16 million for use by opposition
candidates in the same district. Murr also alleged that Aoun
had spent USD 2.5 million to install an electricity generator
and provide an ambulance to the village of Baskinta, which
has a number of votes that would normally not justify such
largesse. "How can we compete when the opposition receives
suitcases full of cash?," he asked.

MESSAGE FOR THE NEW U.S. ADMINISTRATION
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9. (C) Murr believed that the first priority of the incoming
Obama administration would be the U.S. economy, but Lebanon
"cannot wait," he said. Murr advocated that the
administration develop an "action strategy" for Lebanon to
counter Lebanese concerns regarding the perception of a new
U.S. strategy toward Syria and Iran. He advised that Lebanon
could not be considered separate from other regional issues,
such as the Middle East Peace Process, because of the
presence of Palestinians residing in Lebanon. Nor should the
Iranian nuclear issue be negotiated without recalling Iran's
links to Lebanon through Hizballah, he said.

COMMENT
--------------


10. (C) Michel Murr is confident in his ability to form an
independent bloc that Sleiman could support. He could
succeed, but for now we retain some skepticism. We have
heard complaints about the prospect of Murr heading an
independent list from some who would be interested in joining
it. He is leaning toward March 14 but it is by no means
clear that he will be able to bring his key allies, the

BEIRUT 00001732 003 OF 003


Tashnaq party, with him. He says he has Hariri's agreement
to something that Hariri told Ambassador adamantly he won't
do: invite Tashnaq candidates to join March 14's lists. But
Michel Murr has been a master at Lebanese politics for
decades and will no doubt be a key player, so we will
continue to track his efforts as the electoral season heats
up. End Comment.
SISON