LEBANON: SINIORA, WITH GENERAL PETRAEUS, CALLS FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001730 SIPDIS DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA ALSO FOR IO A/S HOOK, PDAS WARLICK P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY USUN FOR KHALILZAD/WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/YERGER/MCDERMOTT E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR UNSC MARR MOPS LE IS SY SUBJECT: LEBANON: SINIORA, WITH GENERAL PETRAEUS, CALLS FOR STRONGER ARAB STANCE ON REGIONAL ISSUES Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In a December 2 meeting, Commander, U.S. Central Command David Petraeus underscored to Prime Minister Fouad Siniora the U.S. commitment to Lebanon and to strengthening the Lebanese Armed Forces. Siniora emphasized the need for U.S. involvement in the Middle East peace process. On Ghajar, Siniora expressed agitation about Israeli unwillingness to find a diplomatic solution to settle the status of the village. He highlighted the importance of a unified Arab position on regional issues including, Iraq, Iran, and Syria. On Syria, Siniora said diplomatic ties with Lebanon are important but mutual sovereignty must first be respected. Siniora expressed gratitude for U.S. support to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and agreed with General Petraeus' emphasis on military training. End summary. PROGRESS ON PEACE PROTECTS MODERATES -------------- ¶2. (C) In a December 2 meeting with visiting CENTCOM Commander General David Petraeus and the Ambassador, Prime Minister Fouad Siniora urged the new U.S. administration to put the Middle East peace process on the top of its agenda. He expected regional shifts away from moderation in the absence of serious steps to improve relations with and among Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, and the Palestinians. Siniora noted that Syria was pushing its allies in Lebanon to become more confrontational but opined that U.S. efforts to re-engage in the Middle East peace process would curb Syrian actions. Additionally, Siniora said the election of a hard-line Israeli leader would reinforce the presence and strength of Hamas in the Palestinian territories. However, Siniora assessed that any improvements in the behavior of one side would trigger improved behavior by the other. Siniora opined that elections in Iran could also cause changes, although General Petraeus expressed doubt that the Iranian president would actively control Iran's affairs in the region given the Qods Force Commander's authority over the Iranian policy for Iraq, Lebanon, Gaza, and Afghanistan. ¶3. (C) Siniora told General Petraeus that violence, such as the November terrorist attacks in Mumbai would become more common until real measures are taken to deal with the current socio-economic downturn of developing countries. Political problems, coupled with economic and social problem, would lead to unrest and terrorism, he said. Siniora argued that the current world finaQial situation mandated a close look at root economic, social, and political causes of problems in the Middle East and the world in general. ¶4. (C) Commenting on the uptick of attacks by pirates off the coasts of Somalia as an indication of possibilities for unrest, Siniora assessed, "We are returning to the seventeenth century." Petraeus explained, however, the complicated nature of the issue, saying the UN and international law had granted only policing authority to counter acts of piracy. Petraeus assessed the piracy would continue until shipping companies judged stopping pirates to be in their best interest; he noted that currently companies prefer to pay pirates to redeem lost goods since taking measures to protect ships is, in the view of shipping companies, less cost-effective. Petraeus said, in particular, ships could speed up their rate of travel, take evasive actions from pirates, and simply pull up ladders from the sides of their boats to reduce instances of successful pirate attack. Additionally, although piracy is a crime under international law, Petraeus doubted sovereign countries wanted to bring pirate suspects into their territories for trial. Returning the pirates to Somalia, where they are typically released, would also do little to curb piracy. EXPRESSING DISPLEASURE ON GHAJAR -------------- BEIRUT 00001730 002 OF 003 ¶5. (C) Agitated about Israeli-UN-Lebanese negotiations on the border village of Ghajar, Siniora called Israel's stance on returning the land to Lebanon "silly." He labeled inaccurate Israel's claim that withdrawal from the land would grant victory to Hizballah; instead, he assessed Israeli withdrawal from Ghajar would demonstrate that diplomatic efforts can succeed. Siniora advisor Roula Nouredinne, speaking with the Ambassador while Siniora left to greet visiting Central African Republic Prime Minister Faustin-Archange Touadera, expressed dissatisfaction with the current status of negotiations and with the Israeli failure to meet Lebanon's November 22 deadline for withdrawal. She said that the GOL stance would be to avoid setting another deadline for receiving an Israeli response and to publicly avoid saying the GOL would reconsider any new Israeli proposal. Upon his return, however, Siniora acknowledged that the Lebanese-UN-Israel indirect contacts on Ghajar would continue. Although there would be no progress, the process was important, he said. Nouredinne said Lebanon would also continue citing Israeli violations of UNSCR 1701. NEED UNIFIED ARAB STANCE -------------- ¶6. (C) General Petraeus highlighted the dramatic reduction in violence in Iraq as an important sign of progress. Siniora said he is now satisfied with the situation in Iraq. He stressed the importance of encouraging Iraq on a path forward that would end with the withdrawal of U.S. forces. During his late August visit to Baghdad, Siniora emphasized unified Arab support for Iraq; he said unified Arab support would serve the interests of Arab allies and of Iraq and would promote stability. Siniora agreed with General Petraeus that Iraq, as a sovereign Arab country, does not want to be on Persian Iran's "string." Siniora noted, however, that the "right atmosphere" first must be established to bring Iraq back into the Arab fold. ¶7. (C) Siniora continued his theme of a unified Arab position when discussing Syria. He recognized the need to bring Syria back into the "Arab house." Acknowledging Lebanon's limited role in influencing larger Arab players, particularly Egypt and Saudi Arabia, Siniora said he is encouraging Cairo and Riyadh to take a unified stance on Syria. ¶8. (C) General Petraeus noted the lack of Syrian cooperation on stemming foreign fighter flows to Iraq; in fact, he said that the U.S. suspects Syria of knowingly permitting terrorist operatives to send money, foreign fighters, and suicide bombers into Iraq. Petraeus assessed that Lebanese support in pushing Saudi Arabia and Egypt to reach out to Syria would be helpful. Syria, Petraeus said, needs to be shown that their behavior is harmful to their greater international and regional goals. Damascus must realize that Iran can never satisfy Syrian economic needs. ¶9. (C) On Lebanon-Syria bilateral ties, Siniora emphasized the need to maintain separation between the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and Lebanese-Syrian diplomatic ties. Diplomatic relations and bilateral discussions are necessary to resolve the many issues between the neighboring countries, Siniora said; he noted that the GOL began the process of normalizing relations before the results of the Tribunal are known. Siniora said Defese Minister Elias Murr will make a trip to Damasus and then "enough" with the visits by Lebanese leaders. Lebanon must require Syrian behavior change before normalization is completed and visits become more regular. GRATEFUL FOR LAF SUPPORT -------------- ¶10. (C) Siniora expressed gratitude to General Petraeus for continued U.S. military support to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). Siniora noted that during President Sleiman's recent visit to Tehran, Iranian officials offered to sell Lebanon weapons for the LAF and to send the bill to Saudi Arabia. Petraeus told Siniora the U.S. still hopes to have an armed fixed aircraft and unarmed aerial vehicles for Lebanon before the 2009 parliamentary elections. The GOL decision to refuse BEIRUT 00001730 003 OF 003 the Jordanian offer of Cobra helicopters was, in Petraeus' opinion, a good decision, he said. General Petraeus noted the importance of the training portion of the U.S. military assistance package and encouraged the Prime Minister to counter the idea that merely receiving advanced technology can solve all of Lebanon's security challenges. Petraeus stressed that, given time requirements for teaching necessary skills to operate and repair equipment, human capital and expertise were more important than the actual technology. Meeting Participants -------------- ¶11. (SBU) U.S. Participants in the meeting were: Michele Sison U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon General David Petraeus Commander, U.S. Central Command Colonel Michael Iverson USA, CENTCOM CG Executive Officer Major Ronald Clark, USMC Aide de Camp, CENTCOM CG Michael Gfoeller, DOS Political Advisor to CENTCOM CG Colonel Michael Bell USA, CAG CENTCOM Sadi Othman Senior Advisor to CG CENTCOM LTC David Leinberger Chief, Office of Defense Cooperation LTC Robert Paddock USCENTCOM Lebanon Desk Officer Megan McCulloch Political Officer ¶11. (SBU) This message has been cleared by General Petraeus. SISON