LEBANON: TASHNAQ AVAILABLE FOR COURTING, SAAD NOT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001722

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA, PM/FO
P FOR DRUSSELL RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR KHALIZAD/WOLFF/SCHEDLEBAUER
NSC FOR ABRAMS/YERGER/MCDERMOTT/RAMCHAND

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL UNSC MARR MCAP MOPS IR LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: TASHNAQ AVAILABLE FOR COURTING, SAAD NOT
INTERESTED

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Tashnaq has not decided with whom it will ally for the
2009 elections and is open to any option that will help it
meet its goal of winning a five MP bloc, a senior Tashnaq MP
told DCM. During the recent trip by a Tashnaq delegation to
Syria, president Assad was very interested in Lebanese
election politics and also said Syrian cooperation with the
Special Tribunal depended on the signing of an undefined
"protocol". End Summary.

TASHNAQ OPEN TO MARCH 14, BUT HARIRI NOT INTERESTED
-------------- --------------


2. (C) It would be an error to interpret the December 1 visit
to Damascus by a delegation from Lebanon's Armenian Tashnaq
party as a sign that Tashnaq has firmly decided to stay
allied with the pro-Syrian opposition for th 2009 Lebanese
elections, Tashnaq leader and MP agop Pakrodonian asserted
to DCM on December 3. "Our target is to get five MPs;
whoever helps us, we will ally with them", he said.
Pakradonian indicated that Tashnaq is open to all options for
alliances, including being part of an independent bloc of MPs
or allying with March 14, if it served Tashnaq's
parliamentary objective.


3. (C) While opposition figure Michel Aoun has been courting
Tashnaq, March 14 leader Saad Hariri has not, Pakradonian
said with a tone of regret. "I see Saad at the National
Dialogue and he kisses me and says we should meet" but then
nothing happens. In addition, Hariri is financing a rival
Armenian politician named Nariq Abrahamian to challenge the
Tashnaq party, Pakradonian complained. Ambassador asked
Hariri about a possible alliance with Tashnaq when she saw
him the following day, December 4. Hariri was firmly
negative, saying he did not trust them. They will join us
for the election and then undermine us after we have
abandoned our own candidates, Saad explained.


4. (C) Pakradonian expressed some ambivalence about senior
Greek Orthodox political figure Michel Murr, with whom
Tashnaq has long been allied. Discussing the possibility of
his party being part of an independent bloc, Pakradonian had
a negative view of what he sees as Murr's lobbying to be the
nominal head of such a bloc. On the other hand, he said that
Tashnaq would support Murr for parliament even if they are on
opposing lists, given the longtime relationship the two have
had.


5. (C) Pakradonian said that during the meeting in Damascus
with Bashar Assad, much of it a discussion of Lebanese
politics, the Syrian president passed what Pakradonian
interpreted as a clear message encouraging visits by "the
Murrs"; Michel Murr and his son, Defense Minister Elias Murr.
(Note: Elias Murr has said publicly he would travel to Syria
in his Defense Minister role, following recent visits by
other GOL officials. Michel Murr has not announced any plan
to travel to Syria).


6. (C) When asked about timing of Tashnaq's decision on how
it will ally itself for the election, Pakradonian thought for
a moment and responded "By mid-February".

CONTACTS WITH ARMENIAN-AMERICANS,
ESPECIALLY FOR CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS
--------------


7. (C) DCM asked about Tashnaq's contacts with
Armenian-American groups. Pakradonian said the party has
some contact with the Armenian National Council in Los
Angeles and Washington, but the Council is not responsive to
Tashnaq's inquiries, which he attributed its focus on Armenia
and Turkey issues. He admitted, however, that Tashnaq would
be approaching the Lebanese Armenian community in the U.S.,
Canada and elsewhere for donations for the 2009 electoral
campaign, which he expected to be very costly compared to

BEIRUT 00001722 002 OF 002


other years.

TASHNAQ'S MEETING WITH BASHAR ASSAD
--------------

8.(C) Pakradonian said the SARG had been lobbying for a
Tashnaq trip to Syria for some time, and the party agreed to
send a delegation before the trip by Free Patriotic Movement
leader Michel Aoun, which began December 3. It was the
party's first contact with the Syrian government since Syria
withdrew from Lebanon in 2005, he said. During the meeting,
Assad told the group he expected the election to be close and
it will be hard for the victors to govern without cooperation
of other parties, so all parties in Lebanon need to be on
good terms. Assad floated the idea of March 14 and the March
8/Aoun opposition agreeing on consensus candidates in certain
districts, Pakradonian claimed.

9.(C) In response, the Tashnaq delegation told Assad its
objective is to get a parliamentary bloc of five MPs and told
him frankly it does not want Syria to suggest Armenian
candidates whom Tashnaq could not accept. Assad was
receptive.

SARG WANTS A "PROTOCOL" FOR SYRIAN COOPERATION
WITH SPECIAL TRIBUNAL?
-------------- -

10.(C) On other issues, Assad told the delegation that Syria
insisted on signing a "protocol" regarding possible Syrian
cooperation with the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. Without
such a protocol, Syria would not send persons to give
testimony at the Tribunal, Assad said. Discussing Syria's
relations with Iran, Assad said something to the effect that
"they have their position; we have ours". He confirmed that
Syria's relations with Saudi Arabia were not good.

SISON